Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 5.61
assuming max odds 1.76
assuming max odds 3.80
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bari (Local): 18.91%; Modena (Visit): 55.37%; Draw: 25.72%. For Bari (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.29. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.11%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.61I 17.83%NM 16.90%EV +6.11%E +1.09%K +1.32%G +0.081% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.12%EV -8.09%E -4.88%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -6.12%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.52I 18.12%NM 17.46%EV +4.41%E +0.798%K +0.975%G +0.043% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.70%EV -5.88%E -3.46%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.84%EV -4.06%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -0.702%E -0.134%K -0.165%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.53%EV -5.33%E -3.11%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.55%EV -1.65%E -0.317%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.07%EV -4.77%E -2.77%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -2.26%E -0.595%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.55%EV -1.65%E -0.317%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.07%EV -4.77%E -2.77%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -2.26%E -0.595%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -1.65%E -0.317%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.32%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -2.59%E -0.504%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.02%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 12:53 |
| BetUS🎯 | 5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -2.59%E -0.504%K -0.625%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.02%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.05I 19.80%NM 18.49%EV -4.48%E -0.888%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.58%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.28%EV -4.77%E -2.77%K -6.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.83%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.88%E -3.46%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -3.55%E -0.946%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -10.86%E -6.75%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.32%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.26%E -0.595%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -7.32%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.11%EV -8.27%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.16%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.85I 20.62%NM 19.11%EV -8.27%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.16%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -9.21%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.44%EV -11.42%E -7.13%K -19.03%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -6.12%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.78%EV -4.22%E -2.44%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.55%E -0.946%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-06 12:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.50%EV -5.33%E -3.11%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.79%EV -6.43%E -3.81%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 54.12%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.44%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.00%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.48%EV -10.86%E -6.75%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-06 12:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.53%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 55.47%EV -13.08%E -8.33%K -22.94%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -13.83%E -4.13%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 14.8% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.19%EV -12.05%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.09%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.72%EV -10.75%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.10%EV -5.88%E -3.46%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -10.86%E -6.75%K -17.81%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 53.96%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.45%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.67%EV -12.52%E -7.93%K -21.59%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.97%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 54.36%EV -13.08%E -8.33%K -22.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.67%EV -17.69%E -5.53%K -8.04%G +0.000% | 17.2% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 12:58 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.43%EV -3.66%E -2.11%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -4.22%E -2.44%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -4.22%E -2.44%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-06 12:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.35I 22.99%NM 20.65%EV -17.72%E -4.07%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 52.53%EV -5.33%E -3.11%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -13.83%E -4.13%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.76%EV -19.62%E -4.62%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.51%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.73%EV -15.12%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.59% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72% | 1.0% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.55% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56% | 1.6% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.55% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56% | 1.6% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.55% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56% | 1.6% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.77% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.50% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.72% | 2.3% | 2026-04-06 13:00 |