Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bari v Modena

Inicio: 2026-04-06 13:04 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (22 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Bari (Local)

Predicción 18.91%5.29momio equitativo
EV +6.11%
Ventaja +1.09%
Kelly +1.32%
Crecimiento +0.081%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.90%18.94%18.89%20.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.254.744.755.6123.53%21.09%21.05%17.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Modena (Visitante)

Predicción 55.37%1.81momio equitativo
EV -2.56%
Ventaja -1.45%
Kelly -3.37%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.35%55.35%55.38%57.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.571.681.681.7663.69%59.42%59.52%56.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.72%3.89momio equitativo
EV -2.26%
Ventaja -0.595%
Kelly -0.807%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.69%25.71%25.73%26.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.523.503.8031.25%28.44%28.57%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Bari (Local): 18.91%; Modena (Visitante): 55.37%; Empate: 25.72%. Para Bari (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 5.29. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 5.61, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +6.11%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯5.61I 17.83%NM 16.90%EV +6.11%E +1.09%K +1.32%G +0.081%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.12%EV -8.09%E -4.88%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.98%EV -6.12%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-06 12:59
Pinnacle🎯5.52I 18.12%NM 17.46%EV +4.41%E +0.798%K +0.975%G +0.043%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.70%EV -5.88%E -3.46%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.84%EV -4.06%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-06 12:59
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -0.702%E -0.134%K -0.165%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.53%EV -5.33%E -3.11%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-06 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.55%EV -1.65%E -0.317%K -0.392%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.07%EV -4.77%E -2.77%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -2.26%E -0.595%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-06 13:00
BetOnline.ag🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.55%EV -1.65%E -0.317%K -0.392%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 56.07%EV -4.77%E -2.77%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -2.26%E -0.595%K -0.807%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-06 13:00
FanDuel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 17.87%EV -1.65%E -0.317%K -0.392%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.32%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-06 13:00
Bovada🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -2.59%E -0.504%K -0.625%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.02%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 12:53
BetUS🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 17.95%EV -2.59%E -0.504%K -0.625%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.02%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 12:59
Marathon Bet🎯5.05I 19.80%NM 18.49%EV -4.48%E -0.888%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.58%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 12:59
Codere (IT)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 19.02%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.28%EV -4.77%E -2.77%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.83%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (UK)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.88%E -3.46%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 13:00
theScore Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.50%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.86%EV -3.55%E -0.946%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 13:00
SportsBet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-06 13:00
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-06 12:59
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-06 12:59
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-06 12:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-06 12:59
Bet Victor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -5.43%E -1.09%K -1.36%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -10.86%E -6.75%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 13:00
DraftKings🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -7.32%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.17%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -2.26%E -0.595%K -0.807%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-06 13:00
Tipico (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -7.32%E -1.49%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.71%EV -8.65%E -5.24%K -13.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-06 12:59
Betsson🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.11%EV -8.27%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.16%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 12:59
NordicBet🎯4.85I 20.62%NM 19.11%EV -8.27%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.16%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-06 12:59
Winamax (DE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.81%EV -9.21%E -1.92%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 56.44%EV -11.42%E -7.13%K -19.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -6.12%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-06 13:00
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.78%EV -4.22%E -2.44%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -3.55%E -0.946%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-06 12:58
BetMGM🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.62%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.50%EV -5.33%E -3.11%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-06 13:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.79%EV -6.43%E -3.81%K -9.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-06 12:59
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.08%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.40%E -2.06%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-06 13:00
PlayUp🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.12%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.74%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-06 12:59
Paddy Power🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -10.16%E -2.14%K -2.71%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.44%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.66%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.00%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.48%EV -10.86%E -6.75%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-06 12:58
NetBet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 18.53%EV -11.10%E -2.36%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 55.47%EV -13.08%E -8.33%K -22.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.00%EV -13.83%E -4.13%K -5.89%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-06 12:59
Betclic (FR)🎯4.65I 21.51%NM 19.19%EV -12.05%E -2.59%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 55.09%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.72%EV -10.75%E -3.10%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-06 13:00
Bet Right🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.99%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.10%EV -5.88%E -3.46%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-06 12:59
Coral🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.34%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.25%EV -10.86%E -6.75%K -17.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-06 13:00
Sky Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -13.00%E -2.83%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.69%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-06 13:00
Betr (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 53.96%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -9.98%E -2.85%K -3.99%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-06 12:59
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.45%EV -10.31%E -6.36%K -16.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.94%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-06 13:00
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 55.67%EV -12.52%E -7.93%K -21.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.78%EV -8.69%E -2.45%K -3.41%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-06 13:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 18.97%EV -14.89%E -3.31%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 54.36%EV -13.08%E -8.33%K -22.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.67%EV -17.69%E -5.53%K -8.04%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-06 13:00
Casumo🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
BetRivers🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 12:58
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
TABtouch🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Grosvenor🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
betPARX🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.35%EV -2.56%E -1.45%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -11.26%E -3.26%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-06 13:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.43%EV -3.66%E -2.11%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-06 13:00
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -4.22%E -2.44%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 13:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.58%EV -4.22%E -2.44%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-06 13:00
Neds🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-06 12:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.29%EV -16.78%E -3.81%K -4.93%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.46%EV -7.54%E -4.52%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.26%EV -12.55%E -3.69%K -5.23%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-06 13:00
LeoVegas🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.65%EV -17.72%E -4.07%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 52.53%EV -5.33%E -3.11%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -13.83%E -4.13%K -5.89%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-06 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 20.76%EV -19.62%E -4.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.51%EV -6.99%E -4.16%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.73%EV -15.12%E -4.58%K -6.57%G +0.000%13.4%2026-04-06 13:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook5.60I 17.86%NM 17.68%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.59%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-04-06 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56%1.6%2026-04-06 13:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56%1.6%2026-04-06 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.89%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.55%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56%1.6%2026-04-06 13:00
Smarkets5.50I 18.18%NM 17.77%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.72%2.3%2026-04-06 13:00