Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bari v Carrarese

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 14:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bari (Local)

Prediction 31.06%3.22fair odd
EV -0.291%
Edge -0.091%
Kelly -0.132%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.63%31.16%31.06%33.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.932.903.2137.04%34.17%34.48%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Carrarese (Visit)

Prediction 37.56%2.66fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +1.20%
Kelly +1.88%
Growth +0.062%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.33%37.37%37.72%40.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.452.462.7547.62%40.81%40.73%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.38%3.19fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.881%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.42%31.47%31.22%34.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.902.953.1041.67%34.48%33.90%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bari (Local): 31.06%; Carrarese (Visit): 37.56%; Draw: 31.38%. For Carrarese (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.66. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.12%EV -11.47%E -4.03%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.33%EV +3.29%E +1.20%K +1.88%G +0.062%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.55%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 14:00
Pinnacle🎯3.17I 31.55%NM 30.58%EV -1.53%E -0.484%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.00%EV -1.59%E -0.607%K -0.981%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.42%EV -6.18%E -2.07%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-22 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.43%EV -1.84%E -0.584%K -0.854%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.98%EV -2.34%E -0.900%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.59%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.43%EV -1.84%E -0.584%K -0.854%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.98%EV -2.34%E -0.900%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.59%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-22 14:00
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -4.22%E -1.65%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -15.28%E -5.66%K -8.99%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-22 13:58
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.86%EV -2.73%E -0.881%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 13:58
Codere (IT)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -5.26%E -1.72%K -2.57%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.89%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.06%EV -4.30%E -1.41%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-22 14:00
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.39%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.68%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.93%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.87%E -1.96%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 30.67%EV -5.57%E -1.83%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.04%EV -8.69%E -2.99%K -4.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 13:59
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -10.58%E -3.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 13:58
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -10.58%E -3.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 13:59
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
BetRivers🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 13:57
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 13:59
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
betPARX🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -11.47%E -4.03%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 14:00
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 13:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -11.47%E -4.03%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -11.47%E -4.03%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 14:00
1xBet🎯3.21I 31.15%NM 29.63%EV -0.291%E -0.091%K -0.132%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.66%EV -7.60%E -3.09%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.70%EV -5.87%E -1.96%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-22 13:59
theScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.69%EV -8.37%E -2.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.16%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.16%EV -2.73%E -0.881%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 14:00
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -3.71%E -1.20%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-22 13:59
Betsson🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -7.44%E -2.50%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -6.50%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 14:00
NordicBet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -7.44%E -2.50%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.82%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.09%EV -6.50%E -2.18%K -3.28%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 14:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.37%EV -8.37%E -2.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.78%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -5.87%E -1.96%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 13:59
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-22 13:59
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.24%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.98%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.79%EV -10.58%E -3.71%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-22 14:00
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.10%EV -13.03%E -4.65%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.69%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.21%EV -9.63%E -3.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-22 14:00
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -6.81%E -2.27%K -3.41%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -17.79%E -6.79%K -10.98%G +0.000%12.3%2026-03-22 14:00
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.39%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.97%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.64%EV -17.79%E -6.79%K -10.98%G +0.000%13.5%2026-03-22 14:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 29.75%EV -8.37%E -2.84%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.83%EV -7.97%E -3.26%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.42%EV -19.99%E -7.84%K -12.90%G +0.000%13.9%2026-03-22 14:00
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.85%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -5.87%E -1.96%K -2.93%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 13:59
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -13.03%E -4.65%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.85%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -2.73%E -0.881%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -13.03%E -4.65%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.85%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -2.73%E -0.881%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -13.03%E -4.65%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -9.85%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -2.73%E -0.881%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 13:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -9.85%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 13:59
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -13.03%E -4.65%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.25%EV -9.85%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 13:59
Sky Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -9.85%E -4.11%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -18.42%E -7.08%K -11.51%G +0.000%14.6%2026-03-22 14:00
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -10.60%E -4.46%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -10.98%E -4.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 13:59
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.54%EV -10.98%E -4.63%K -8.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-22 14:00
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.46%EV -11.47%E -4.03%K -6.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.15%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.39%EV -7.44%E -2.52%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.82%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.36%EV -12.48%E -5.36%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.82%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 13:58
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.81%EV -14.58%E -5.30%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.03%EV -13.61%E -5.92%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-22 14:00
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.94%EV -16.13%E -5.98%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.33%EV -15.49%E -6.88%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.74%EV -9.01%E -3.11%K -4.74%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-22 13:59
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 30.08%EV -16.13%E -5.98%K -9.49%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 36.09%EV -15.49%E -6.88%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 33.83%EV -24.70%E -10.29%K -17.64%G +0.000%23.1%2026-03-22 14:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.92%EV -9.92%E -3.42%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.09%EV -16.61%E -7.48%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.99%EV -12.14%E -4.34%K -6.75%G +0.000%15.2%2026-03-22 13:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.66%EV -10.54%E -3.66%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.68%EV -21.12%E -10.06%K -19.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.66%EV -9.63%E -3.35%K -5.12%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-22 14:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.30I 30.30%NM 30.10%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.56%0.7%2026-03-22 14:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.17%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.41%1.2%2026-03-22 14:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.25I 30.77%NM 30.42%2.66I 37.59%NM 37.17%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.41%1.2%2026-03-22 14:00
Matchbook3.25I 30.77%NM 30.33%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.32%1.4%2026-03-22 14:00
Smarkets3.25I 30.77%NM 30.09%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.59%2.3%2026-03-22 14:00