Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ascoli v Benevento

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:15 UTC

Final: Ascoli 1–0 Benevento

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ascoli (Local)

Prediction 40.49%2.47fair odd
EV -4.45%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.35%40.51%40.52%41.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.262.302.3647.17%44.17%43.48%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benevento (Visit)

Prediction 30.88%3.24fair odd
EV +0.351%
Edge +0.108%
Kelly +0.156%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.90%30.88%30.93%33.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.982.983.2537.74%33.59%33.61%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.64%3.49fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.776%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.11%28.61%28.55%29.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.193.203.4033.90%31.33%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ascoli (Local): 40.49%; Benevento (Visit): 30.88%; Draw: 28.64%. For Benevento (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.351%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV +0.351%E +0.108%K +0.156%G +0.001%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.35%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-03 15:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 40.80%EV -5.26%E -2.25%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.83%EV -1.19%E -0.373%K -0.542%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.37%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-03 10:14
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -1.19%E -0.373%K -0.542%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-03 15:33
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.53%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.00%EV -2.74%E -0.869%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.47%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 15:34
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.64%E -0.776%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-04 09:59
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-02 12:35
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 09:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 10:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-04 06:30
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -4.28%E -1.38%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-03 15:34
Pinnacle🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 40.37%EV -4.45%E -1.89%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.93%EV -4.90%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.70%EV -4.93%E -1.48%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 11:45
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 15:32
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 04:40
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.62%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.63%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 15:35
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 10:15
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.59%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.95%EV -5.82%E -1.91%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.46%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-03 10:15
1xBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.73%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.05%EV -4.36%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 17:09
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 06:10
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -12.95%E -6.02%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -7.37%E -2.46%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-03 15:34
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.90%EV -7.69%E -3.37%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.19%EV -7.68%E -2.57%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -4.36%E -1.30%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-03 17:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.04%EV -6.07%E -2.62%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.38%EV -8.60%E -2.91%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 19:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.04%EV -6.07%E -2.62%K -4.60%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.38%EV -8.60%E -2.91%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.58%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 19:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 03:30
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.38%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.48%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-03 17:09
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.73%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.20%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-04 09:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.30%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -8.91%E -3.02%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.97%EV -10.37%E -3.31%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-04 11:44
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 11:40
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.81%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.61%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 11:43
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-03 03:30
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 12:25
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 12:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -6.88%E -2.99%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-02 12:25
PlayUp🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.66%EV -7.69%E -3.37%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.18%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.17%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 08:30
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.37%EV -9.71%E -4.36%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -9.80%E -3.11%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 04:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 09:19
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 09:20
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 09:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.51%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -10.46%E -3.61%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.75%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-01 04:40
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -11.07%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-04 09:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.24%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.74%EV -11.07%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -12.66%E -4.15%K -6.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-01 04:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.24%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.74%EV -11.07%E -3.85%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.02%EV -12.66%E -4.15%K -6.18%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-01 04:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.25%EV -12.14%E -5.60%K -10.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.64%EV -12.00%E -4.21%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.11%EV -14.09%E -4.70%K -7.05%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-04 11:43
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.99%EV -12.95%E -6.02%K -11.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -13.54%E -4.84%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -8.36%E -2.61%K -3.80%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-03 17:13
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 40.39%EV -14.17%E -6.68%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.58%EV -13.54%E -4.84%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.03%EV -15.52%E -5.26%K -7.96%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-01 04:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.85%EV -10.93%E -4.97%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.88%EV -15.09%E -5.49%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.28%EV -11.23%E -3.62%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-03 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -16.63%E -6.16%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -5.50%E -1.67%K -2.39%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-02 15:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -8.91%E -3.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.41%EV -18.18%E -6.86%K -11.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -6.93%E -2.13%K -3.08%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-02 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%1.6%2026-09-04 13:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%1.6%2026-09-04 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.39%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.77%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%1.6%2026-09-04 13:09
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.20%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.11%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.69%2.0%2026-09-04 14:35
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.83%3.2%2026-09-04 13:35