Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.19
assuming max odds 4.01
assuming max odds 3.40
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ascoli (Local): 45.21%; Avellino (Visit): 26.12%; Draw: 28.66%. For Avellino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.75%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.59%EV -4.15%E -1.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.10%EV +4.75%E +1.18%K +1.58%G +0.075% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.30%EV -8.56%E -2.68%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.74%EV -6.86%E -3.33%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV +3.18%E +0.806%K +1.08%G +0.034% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 17:04 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.74%EV -6.86%E -3.33%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV +3.18%E +0.806%K +1.08%G +0.034% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 17:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.74%EV -6.86%E -3.33%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.86%EV +3.18%E +0.806%K +1.08%G +0.034% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-19 17:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV +1.88%E +0.481%K +0.647%G +0.012% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-19 17:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -11.83%E -6.07%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -0.736%E -0.194%K -0.263%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-19 16:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.03%EV -8.67%E -4.29%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.73%EV -1.78%E -0.474%K -0.645%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.24%EV -8.85%E -2.78%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 17:28 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -2.04%E -0.544%K -0.742%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-19 17:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.68%EV -9.57%E -4.79%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -2.04%E -0.544%K -0.742%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -12.57%E -4.12%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -11.83%E -6.07%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -3.35%E -0.905%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.01%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -4.65%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.09%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 16:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.41%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.50%EV -4.65%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-19 17:28 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.43%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.06%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 16:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:48 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.96%EV -7.76%E -3.81%K -7.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -3.98%E -1.19%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.17%EV -11.83%E -6.07%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%EV -5.96%E -1.66%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -16.87%E -5.82%K -8.88%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -4.15%E -1.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -2.54%E -0.748%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-15 08:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-19 17:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -5.96%E -2.86%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-19 17:29 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.05%E -2.41%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -9.57%E -4.79%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.57%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -5.41%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-19 15:11 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.38%E -5.81%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.38%E -5.81%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 45.86%EV -11.38%E -5.81%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.05%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.09%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.14%EV -11.83%E -6.07%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.52%EV -9.88%E -2.86%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.34%EV -14.01%E -4.67%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 08:28 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-15 08:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.88%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-19 17:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 45.74%EV -12.29%E -6.33%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.17%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -11.83%E -6.07%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.18%E -3.29%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-09-19 17:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.37%EV -0.982%E -0.448%K -0.825%G +0.000% | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.19%EV -11.97%E -3.55%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.44%EV -4.26%E -1.28%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -9.57%E -4.79%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -12.49%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-19 17:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-19 17:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -7.31%E -3.57%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -6.84%E -2.11%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -9.57%E -4.79%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -8.28%E -2.59%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-19 17:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.57%E -4.79%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-19 17:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.57%E -4.79%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-19 17:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.57%E -4.79%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-09-19 17:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 45.88%EV -15.45%E -8.26%K -17.76%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.00%EV -13.80%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.13%EV -12.57%E -4.12%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 16.6% | 2026-09-19 16:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.95%EV -11.83%E -6.07%K -12.46%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 27.22%EV -15.89%E -4.93%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 27.83%EV -9.71%E -3.08%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-09-19 17:03 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 45.65%EV -15.90%E -8.55%K -18.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 26.96%EV -17.72%E -5.62%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 27.39%EV -11.14%E -3.59%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-09-19 17:19 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.05% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69% | 0.5% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 46.07% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.88% | 1.4% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-09-19 17:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-09-19 17:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83% | 1.6% | 2026-09-19 17:24 |