Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 4.12
assuming max odds 2.10
assuming max odds 3.34
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arezzo (Local): 24.90%; Palermo (Visit): 45.55%; Draw: 29.54%. For Arezzo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.12, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.60%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.47%EV +2.60%E +0.630%K +0.832%G +0.022% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.49%EV -5.25%E -2.52%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.22I 31.06%NM 30.03%EV -4.87%E -1.51%K -2.19%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -0.392%E -0.098%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -11.17%E -5.73%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -2.88%E -0.739%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.95%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.88%E -0.739%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.61%EV -6.16%E -2.99%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.88%E -0.739%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.61%EV -6.16%E -2.99%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.88%E -0.739%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.61%EV -6.16%E -2.99%K -5.81%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.04%EV -2.88%E -0.739%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.73%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.24%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-30 16:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.88I 25.77%NM 24.05%EV -3.38%E -0.871%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 46.42%EV -8.44%E -4.20%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 29.53%EV -6.64%E -2.10%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.27%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.58%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-30 16:49 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.37%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.87%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-30 16:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -5.37%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.50%EV -6.62%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.53%EV -4.34%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -2.51%E -0.759%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.38%EV -6.62%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.33%EV -4.34%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -6.62%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 16:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -6.62%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -7.98%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.89%E -3.24%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.73I 26.81%NM 24.30%EV -7.12%E -1.91%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.78%EV -9.80%E -4.95%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 29.92%EV -10.48%E -3.46%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-30 16:38 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.86%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.20%EV -5.25%E -2.52%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.38%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.86%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-30 16:45 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -7.86%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-08-30 16:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -9.11%E -2.50%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.98%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-30 16:18 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.25%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-30 16:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -7.98%E -3.95%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.54%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -14.32%E -4.94%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%EV -10.35%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.17%EV -11.17%E -5.73%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.37%EV -14.32%E -4.94%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.42%EV -10.60%E -2.95%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.34%E -2.06%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.40%EV -1.32%E -0.396%K -0.566%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -11.60%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-30 16:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-30 16:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.61%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-30 16:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -5.46%E -1.71%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -8.89%E -4.45%K -8.89%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 45.70%EV -10.26%E -5.21%K -10.58%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.13%EV -12.84%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 46.04%EV -12.99%E -6.80%K -14.28%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 28.83%EV -9.89%E -3.24%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-08-30 16:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.76%EV -14.09%E -4.08%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.57%EV -11.17%E -5.73%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.67%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.21%EV -14.09%E -4.08%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.30%EV -12.54%E -6.53%K -13.63%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 29.49%EV -12.85%E -4.35%K -6.59%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.34%EV -15.33%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.98I 50.51%NM 45.23%EV -9.80%E -4.95%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.43%EV -6.94%E -2.20%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -15.33%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -11.17%E -5.73%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-30 11:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -15.33%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -11.17%E -5.73%K -11.76%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -8.41%E -2.71%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-08-30 11:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.94%EV -17.82%E -5.40%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 45.53%EV -14.36%E -7.64%K -16.32%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 28.53%EV -11.37%E -3.79%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-08-30 11:39 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.11% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.18% | 0.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 46.11% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.18% | 0.4% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.84% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.84% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.01% | 1.0% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.86% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.20% | 1.9% | 2026-08-30 16:55 |