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Udinese v AC Milan

2026-10-25 19:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Udinese (Local)

Prediction 21.72%4.60fair odd
EV +1.66%
Edge +0.355%
Kelly +0.451%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%21.71%21.87%23.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.284.334.6826.67%23.35%23.09%21.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AC Milan (Visit)

Prediction 52.83%1.89fair odd
EV -3.33%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -4.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.49%52.83%52.68%53.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.661.761.751.8360.24%56.86%56.98%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.45%3.93fair odd
EV -0.482%
Edge -0.123%
Kelly -0.166%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.81%25.45%25.45%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.663.673.9129.41%27.30%27.29%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Udinese (Local): 21.72%; AC Milan (Visit): 52.83%; Draw: 25.45%. For Udinese (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.68, producing a positive expected value of +1.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.68I 21.37%NM 21.03%EV +1.66%E +0.355%K +0.451%G +0.007%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.79%EV -3.33%E -1.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 25.18%EV -0.482%E -0.123%K -0.166%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-11 21:00
Marathon Bet🎯4.55I 21.98%NM 21.04%EV -1.16%E -0.256%K -0.328%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.77%EV -5.97%E -3.35%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.19%EV -3.28%E -0.864%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-11 20:49
betfred_uk🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19%EV -4.91%E -2.73%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-11 20:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -6.50%E -3.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.28%E -0.864%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 23:39
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.25%E -0.500%K -0.643%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.91%E -2.73%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 21:09
Betr (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -4.42%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.21%EV -5.97%E -3.35%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.26%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 20:34
BetMGM🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.46%EV -4.42%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -6.50%E -3.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.18%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 21:09
Coral🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -4.42%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-11 21:04
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -4.42%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.83%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 21:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -4.42%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.83%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 21:04
Neds🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -4.42%E -1.00%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -5.83%E -1.57%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 21:04
Pinnacle🎯4.36I 22.94%NM 21.77%EV -5.29%E -1.21%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.44%EV -4.39%E -2.42%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.79%EV -6.34%E -1.72%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 21:15
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -6.59%E -1.53%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.26%EV -6.50%E -3.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.81%EV -3.28%E -0.864%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 21:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.13%EV -5.97%E -3.35%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.78%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 23:45
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 21:55
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -8.77%E -2.09%K -2.74%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 21:54
LeoVegas🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -10.94%E -2.67%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.99%EV -6.50%E -3.67%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.56%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 23:44
Unibet (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.55%EV -10.94%E -2.67%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.22%EV -12.31%E -7.42%K -18.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.24%EV -10.92%E -3.12%K -4.37%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-11 23:44
Betclic (FR)🎯4.05I 24.69%NM 22.00%EV -12.02%E -2.97%K -3.94%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.40%EV -10.20%E -6.00%K -14.57%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.60%EV -11.43%E -3.28%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-11 23:44
Winamax (DE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 52.02%EV -7.03%E -3.99%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.09%EV -7.10%E -1.95%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 23:40
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -13.11%E -3.28%K -4.37%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.56%E -4.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -8.37%E -2.33%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-11 22:34
Winamax (FR)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.07%EV -18.54%E -4.94%K -6.74%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 51.49%EV -11.25%E -6.70%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -13.46%E -3.96%K -5.61%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-11 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎4.55I 21.98%NM 21.36%1.82I 54.95%NM 53.40%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%2.9%2026-10-11 20:55
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 22.64%1.69I 59.17%NM 50.90%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%16.3%2026-10-11 23:40