The School of Odds

Torino v AC Milan

2026-08-23 18:45 — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis)

Option 1: Torino (Local)

Odds
3.7027.03%Min
4.3123.22%Mean
4.4022.73%Median
4.6521.51%Max
Consensus probabilities
20.50%4.879Min
22.76%4.395Max
21.33%4.687Mean
21.43%4.667Median
21.38%4.677IQM
21.27%4.701Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.65 under the IQM model: 21.38%

EV -0.585%Edge -0.126%Kelly -0.160%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: AC Milan (Visit)

Odds
1.6062.50%Min
1.7457.45%Mean
1.7557.14%Median
1.8454.35%Max
Consensus probabilities
51.34%1.948Min
54.58%1.832Max
52.95%1.888Mean
52.77%1.895Median
52.84%1.893IQM
53.00%1.887Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.84 under the IQM model: 52.84%

EV -2.78%Edge -1.51%Kelly -3.31%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.2530.77%Min
3.6027.77%Mean
3.6027.78%Median
3.8825.77%Max
Consensus probabilities
24.93%4.012Min
26.20%3.817Max
25.71%3.889Mean
25.80%3.876Median
25.78%3.878IQM
25.72%3.887Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.88 under the IQM model: 25.78%

EV +0.044%Edge +0.011%Kelly +0.015%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

BookmakerTorino (Local)AC Milan (Visit)Draw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet4.65I 21.51% NM 21.16%EV -0.585% E -0.126% K -0.160% G +0.000%1.84I 54.35% NM 53.48%EV -2.78% E -1.51% K -3.31% G +0.000%3.88I 25.77% NM 25.36%EV +0.044% E +0.011% K +0.015% G +0.000%1.6%2026-07-03 13:40
Marathon Bet4.55I 21.98% NM 21.16%EV -2.72% E -0.598% K -0.767% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 53.50%EV -4.90% E -2.72% K -6.12% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 25.34%EV -2.02% E -0.531% K -0.721% G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-03 13:34
betfred_uk4.50I 22.22% NM 21.28%EV -3.79% E -0.843% K -1.08% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 53.19%EV -4.90% E -2.72% K -6.12% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 25.53%EV -3.31% E -0.882% K -1.20% G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-19 10:59
Betr (AU)4.40I 22.73% NM 21.53%EV -5.93% E -1.35% K -1.74% G +0.000%1.78I 56.18% NM 53.21%EV -5.95% E -3.34% K -7.63% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 25.26%EV -3.31% E -0.882% K -1.20% G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-30 02:59
SportsBet4.50I 22.22% NM 20.96%EV -3.79% E -0.843% K -1.08% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 53.89%EV -7.54% E -4.31% K -10.05% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 25.15%EV -3.31% E -0.882% K -1.20% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-19 11:10
Codere (IT)4.40I 22.73% NM 21.64%EV -5.93% E -1.35% K -1.74% G +0.000%1.81I 55.25% NM 52.62%EV -4.37% E -2.41% K -5.39% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 25.74%EV -4.60% E -1.24% K -1.70% G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-04 22:05
FanDuel4.50I 22.22% NM 20.50%EV -3.79% E -0.843% K -1.08% G +0.000%1.69I 59.17% NM 54.58%EV -10.71% E -6.34% K -15.52% G +0.000%3.70I 27.03% NM 24.93%EV -4.60% E -1.24% K -1.70% G +0.000%8.4%2026-06-19 11:10
Pinnacle4.38I 22.83% NM 21.42%EV -6.36% E -1.45% K -1.88% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 53.01%EV -6.48% E -3.66% K -8.42% G +0.000%3.67I 27.25% NM 25.57%EV -5.37% E -1.46% K -2.01% G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-19 15:00
Winamax (DE)4.10I 24.39% NM 22.46%EV -12.34% E -3.01% K -3.98% G +0.000%1.76I 56.82% NM 52.32%EV -7.01% E -3.98% K -9.22% G +0.000%3.65I 27.40% NM 25.23%EV -5.89% E -1.61% K -2.22% G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-03 15:14
Tipico (DE)4.60I 21.74% NM 20.51%EV -1.65% E -0.360% K -0.459% G +0.000%1.77I 56.50% NM 53.29%EV -6.48% E -3.66% K -8.42% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 26.20%EV -7.18% E -1.99% K -2.76% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 05:10
Caesars4.40I 22.73% NM 21.43%EV -5.93% E -1.35% K -1.74% G +0.000%1.80I 55.56% NM 52.38%EV -4.90% E -2.72% K -6.12% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 26.19%EV -7.18% E -1.99% K -2.76% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-25 22:46
Bet Victor4.40I 22.73% NM 21.11%EV -5.93% E -1.35% K -1.74% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 53.08%EV -7.54% E -4.31% K -10.05% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.80%EV -7.18% E -1.99% K -2.76% G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-19 14:10
Sky Bet4.50I 22.22% NM 20.61%EV -3.79% E -0.843% K -1.08% G +0.000%1.73I 57.80% NM 53.62%EV -8.59% E -4.97% K -11.77% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.77%EV -7.18% E -1.99% K -2.76% G +0.000%7.8%2026-06-19 11:10
LeoVegas4.20I 23.81% NM 21.90%EV -10.21% E -2.43% K -3.19% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 52.55%EV -7.54% E -4.31% K -10.05% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.55%EV -7.18% E -1.99% K -2.76% G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-02 10:20
Paddy Power4.40I 22.73% NM 20.79%EV -5.93% E -1.35% K -1.74% G +0.000%1.70I 58.82% NM 53.80%EV -10.18% E -5.99% K -14.54% G +0.000%3.60I 27.78% NM 25.41%EV -7.18% E -1.99% K -2.76% G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-19 11:00
Unibet (UK)4.25I 23.53% NM 21.54%EV -9.14% E -2.15% K -2.81% G +0.000%1.75I 57.14% NM 52.31%EV -7.54% E -4.31% K -10.05% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 26.15%EV -9.75% E -2.79% K -3.90% G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-03 15:15
DraftKings4.10I 24.39% NM 22.09%EV -12.34% E -3.01% K -3.98% G +0.000%1.74I 57.47% NM 52.04%EV -8.07% E -4.64% K -10.90% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 25.87%EV -9.75% E -2.79% K -3.90% G +0.000%10.4%2026-06-29 00:09
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00% NM 22.04%EV -14.48% E -3.62% K -4.83% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 52.78%EV -11.76% E -7.04% K -17.56% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 25.18%EV -9.75% E -2.79% K -3.90% G +0.000%13.5%2026-06-28 17:29
Unibet (FR)4.00I 25.00% NM 21.94%EV -14.48% E -3.62% K -4.83% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 52.24%EV -11.24% E -6.69% K -16.52% G +0.000%3.40I 29.41% NM 25.81%EV -12.33% E -3.63% K -5.14% G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-03 15:15
Betclic (FR)4.05I 24.69% NM 21.68%EV -13.41% E -3.31% K -4.40% G +0.000%1.68I 59.52% NM 52.26%EV -11.24% E -6.69% K -16.52% G +0.000%3.37I 29.67% NM 26.05%EV -13.11% E -3.89% K -5.53% G +0.000%13.9%2026-07-03 15:14
NetBet (FR)4.00I 25.00% NM 21.22%EV -14.48% E -3.62% K -4.83% G +0.000%1.60I 62.50% NM 53.05%EV -15.46% E -9.66% K -25.77% G +0.000%3.30I 30.30% NM 25.72%EV -14.91% E -4.52% K -6.48% G +0.000%17.8%2026-07-04 17:50
Winamax (FR)3.70I 27.03% NM 22.76%EV -20.90% E -5.65% K -7.74% G +0.000%1.64I 60.98% NM 51.34%EV -13.35% E -8.14% K -20.86% G +0.000%3.25I 30.77% NM 25.91%EV -16.20% E -4.98% K -7.20% G +0.000%18.8%2026-06-25 19:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00% NM 21.53%EV -14.48% E -3.62% K -4.83% G +0.000%1.67I 59.88% NM 51.56%EV -11.76% E -7.04% K -17.56% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 26.91%EV -17.49% E -5.47% K -7.95% G +0.000%16.1%2026-06-18 20:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerTorino (Local)AC Milan (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets4.50I 22.22%1.80I 55.56%3.65I 27.40%5.2%2026-07-05 14:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.49I 67.11%1.79I 55.87%2.70I 37.04%60.0%2026-07-05 10:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.49I 67.11%1.79I 55.87%2.70I 37.04%60.0%2026-07-05 10:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%1.79I 55.87%1.01I 99.01%149.2%2026-07-05 10:10