The School of Odds

Torino v AC Milan

2026-08-23 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

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Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Torino (Local)

Prediction 21.36%4.68fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.331%
Kelly -0.423%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.50%21.42%21.38%22.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.354.404.6125%23%23%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

AC Milan (Visit)

Prediction 53.00%1.89fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.99%52.97%53.00%54.58%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.651.761.751.8561%57%57%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV -0.784%
Edge -0.203%
Kelly -0.273%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.90%25.61%25.62%26.20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.653.8729%27%27%26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet4.61I 21.69%NM 21.35%EV -1.53%E -0.331%K -0.423%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 53.21%EV -1.95%E -1.05%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.44%EV -0.784%E -0.203%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.6%2026-07-17 04:35
Tipico (DE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -1.74%E -0.378%K -0.483%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.29%EV -6.19%E -3.50%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-25 05:10
BetOnline.ag4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV -2.81%E -0.617%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.41%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-22 20:24
LowVig.ag4.55I 21.98%NM 20.89%EV -2.81%E -0.617%K -0.791%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.41%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-22 20:25
Marathon Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.38%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 53.16%EV -4.07%E -2.25%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.46%EV -3.09%E -0.818%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 04:24
betfred_uk4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53%EV -3.86%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.4%2026-06-19 10:59
Codere (IT)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.20%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.01%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-13 02:15
SportsBet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -7.25%E -4.14%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -2.58%E -0.679%K -0.921%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-17 00:40
TAB4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.71%EV -7.25%E -4.14%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 08:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.00%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-17 00:40
Sky Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.61%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-17 00:40
FanDuel4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -3.88%E -0.861%K -1.11%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.58%EV -10.43%E -6.17%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-17 00:40
Betsson4.45I 22.47%NM 21.26%EV -4.94%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-13 02:14
NordicBet4.45I 22.47%NM 21.26%EV -4.94%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.16%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-13 02:14
Coral4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-11 20:34
Ladbrokes (UK)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.75%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.66%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-16 06:05
Betr (AU)4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.03%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-25 15:30
Caesars4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.60%E -2.55%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-25 22:46
BetMGM4.40I 22.73%NM 21.39%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.17%EV -6.19%E -3.50%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -5.14%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-11 20:44
Bet Victor4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.25%E -4.14%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-19 14:10
betano_uk4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.25%E -4.14%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-12 08:38
Paddy Power4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -6.01%E -1.37%K -1.77%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -9.90%E -5.82%K -14.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.41%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-17 00:45
Pinnacle4.36I 22.94%NM 21.56%EV -6.87%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.82%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.62%EV -5.91%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-17 04:34
BetUS4.36I 22.94%NM 21.56%EV -6.87%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.82%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.62%EV -5.91%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-21 23:19
Unibet (UK)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.17%EV -7.08%E -1.63%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.24%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 15:25
Bovada4.30I 23.26%NM 22.18%EV -8.15%E -1.89%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.39%EV -3.54%E -1.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -3.86%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 15:09
LeoVegas4.30I 23.26%NM 21.50%EV -8.15%E -1.89%K -2.47%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.82%EV -7.25%E -4.14%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-25 15:30
Ladbrokes (AU)4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -9.22%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 06:05
Neds4.25I 23.53%NM 21.89%EV -9.22%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -5.66%E -3.18%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.84%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-16 06:05
PlayUp4.25I 23.53%NM 21.42%EV -9.22%E -2.17%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.93%EV -8.84%E -5.14%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.65%EV -8.99%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 08:30
Winamax (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -10.28%E -2.45%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.88%EV -7.78%E -4.47%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.21%EV -6.42%E -1.76%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-13 02:15
Everygame4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -10.28%E -2.45%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.84%EV -8.31%E -4.80%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.39%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-17 04:30
Betclic (FR)4.15I 24.10%NM 21.47%EV -11.35%E -2.74%K -3.60%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 52.71%EV -10.43%E -6.17%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.82%EV -11.55%E -3.35%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-24 18:49
Winamax (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -12.42%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.71%EV -8.84%E -5.14%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-13 16:35
DraftKings4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -12.42%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.04%EV -7.78%E -4.47%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -10.27%E -2.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-06 11:15
Unibet (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 21.45%EV -12.42%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.67%EV -11.49%E -6.88%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.87%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.35%G +0.000%13.7%2026-07-13 02:14
NetBet (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 21.32%EV -12.42%E -3.03%K -4.01%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 52.97%EV -12.55%E -7.60%K -19.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.71%EV -12.83%E -3.77%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.4%2026-07-22 13:45
Betway4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -14.56%E -3.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.25%E -4.14%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -7.71%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-20 20:05
BoyleSports4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -14.56%E -3.64%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.78%EV -11.49%E -6.88%K -17.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.18%EV -10.27%E -2.93%K -4.11%G +0.000%13.5%2026-06-28 17:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 20.92%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.76%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.32%3.9%2026-07-25 00:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.70%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.20%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.09%5.0%2026-07-24 21:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%8.9%2026-07-25 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.32%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%8.9%2026-07-25 16:00