Language:English
Sassuolo v Juventus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sassuolo (Local)
Prediction 17.04%5.87fair odd
EV +5.65%
Edge +0.912%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.061%
assuming max odds 6.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.20%16.95%17.15%18.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.435.506.2021.74%18.43%18.18%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Juventus (Visit)
Prediction 58.94%1.70fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.67%
Kelly -4.23%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.91%58.82%58.98%60.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.581.591.6567.57%63.17%62.89%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV -0.555%
Edge -0.134%
Kelly -0.177%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.17%24.23%23.86%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.853.834.1428.57%25.97%26.11%24.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sassuolo (Local): 17.04%; Juventus (Visit): 58.94%; Draw: 24.02%. For Sassuolo (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.87. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.65%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.20%EV +5.65%E +0.912%K +1.09%G +0.061% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.01%EV -7.47%E -4.76%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.72%E -2.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-31 10:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV +2.24%E +0.374%K +0.449%G +0.010% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.56%EV -3.93%E -2.41%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -15.93%E -4.55%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-30 21:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.93I 16.86%NM 16.59%EV +1.05%E +0.177%K +0.213%G +0.002% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.64%EV -2.75%E -1.67%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 4.14I 24.15%NM 23.77%EV -0.555%E -0.134%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-08-31 05:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.81%EV +0.540%E +0.091%K +0.110%G +0.001% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.29%EV -5.70%E -3.56%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -13.53%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-31 11:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.81%EV +0.540%E +0.091%K +0.110%G +0.001% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.29%EV -5.70%E -3.56%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -13.53%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-31 11:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.57%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.70%EV -5.11%E -3.17%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV -2.72%E -0.671%K -0.891%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 09:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.40%EV -1.16%E -0.201%K -0.243%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.82%EV -6.29%E -3.95%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -3.92%E -0.979%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-30 16:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -2.02%E -0.351%K -0.425%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -6.29%E -3.95%K -10.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.92%E -0.979%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-30 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.26%EV -2.87%E -0.503%K -0.610%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -9.82%E -6.42%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -3.92%E -0.979%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-30 16:25 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.02%EV -4.57%E -0.817%K -0.994%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -4.52%E -2.79%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.13%EV -5.12%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-30 15:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -6.28%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.28%EV -5.70%E -3.56%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.04I 24.75%NM 23.48%EV -2.96%E -0.732%K -0.973%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-30 21:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.28%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.70%E -3.56%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -3.92%E -0.979%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:24 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.28%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -5.70%E -3.56%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -3.92%E -0.979%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-30 16:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -6.28%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -7.47%E -4.76%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.32%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-30 16:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -6.28%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -7.47%E -4.76%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.72%E -2.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-30 16:24 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.60%EV -7.98%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.65%EV -4.52%E -2.79%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.92%E -0.979%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 22:08 |
| Betway🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -10.54%E -2.01%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.12%EV -7.47%E -4.76%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -3.92%E -0.979%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-30 20:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -10.54%E -2.01%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.25%EV -6.88%E -4.35%K -11.86%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -8.72%E -2.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-31 11:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.30%EV -10.54%E -2.01%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.98%EV -9.23%E -6.00%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 3.83I 26.11%NM 23.72%EV -8.00%E -2.09%K -2.83%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-31 10:58 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -11.39%E -2.19%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -7.47%E -4.76%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.85%EV -7.52%E -1.95%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-31 11:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.00%EV -11.39%E -2.19%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 59.73%EV -12.77%E -8.63%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -8.72%E -2.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-08-31 11:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.98%EV -13.09%E -2.57%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.80%EV -8.06%E -5.16%K -14.38%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -5.12%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-31 11:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -14.80%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.95%EV -4.52%E -2.79%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.60%EV -9.92%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-30 17:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.80%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.91%EV -5.11%E -3.17%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.12%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.80%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.91%EV -5.11%E -3.17%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.12%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -14.80%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.91%EV -5.11%E -3.17%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.12%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-30 16:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -14.80%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 57.90%EV -7.47%E -4.76%K -13.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -8.72%E -2.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-31 07:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -14.80%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.37%EV -9.23%E -6.00%K -17.10%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -8.72%E -2.30%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-09-01 22:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.71%EV -21.61%E -4.70%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.38%EV -11.59%E -7.73%K -23.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%EV -13.53%E -3.76%K -5.20%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-08-30 21:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (2)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 5.26I 19.01%NM 18.11% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.08% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81% | 5.0% | 2026-08-31 13:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 17.95% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.44% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.62% | 16.1% | 2026-09-01 01:40 |