The School of Odds

Parma v Cagliari

2026-08-22 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

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Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Parma (Local)

Prediction 36.40%2.75fair odd
EV -0.638%
Edge -0.234%
Kelly -0.369%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.55%36.35%36.45%37.15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.352.572.602.7343%39%38%37%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cagliari (Visit)

Prediction 33.10%3.02fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -0.682%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.94%33.13%33.09%33.97%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.622.802.802.9838%36%36%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 30.50%3.28fair odd
EV -0.877%
Edge -0.270%
Kelly -0.390%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.31%30.52%30.46%32.50%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.853.053.003.2535%33%33%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.73I 36.63%NM 36.08%EV -0.638%E -0.234%K -0.369%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.05%EV -1.35%E -0.453%K -0.682%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 30.87%EV -2.71%E -0.848%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.5%2026-07-16 00:15
Marathon Bet2.67I 37.45%NM 36.06%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.08%EV -3.67%E -1.26%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.86%EV -4.84%E -1.55%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-16 00:10
BetOnline.ag2.67I 37.45%NM 35.64%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.16%EV -4.99%E -1.74%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 20:24
LowVig.ag2.67I 37.45%NM 35.64%EV -2.82%E -1.06%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.16%EV -4.99%E -1.74%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.20%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 20:25
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -3.55%E -1.34%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -2.34%E -0.794%K -1.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -11.55%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-24 11:04
Caesars2.65I 37.74%NM 35.55%EV -3.55%E -1.34%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.40%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-25 22:46
Pinnacle2.63I 38.02%NM 35.84%EV -4.28%E -1.63%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -4.99%E -1.74%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.32%EV -8.20%E -2.72%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-24 08:50
SportsBet2.62I 38.17%NM 36.30%EV -4.64%E -1.77%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -2.40%E -0.750%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-26 05:19
Bovada2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.94%EV -4.00%E -1.38%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.32%EV -3.93%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-24 16:44
Codere (IT)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.53%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -3.93%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-23 12:50
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -2.40%E -0.750%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-06-26 05:20
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -2.40%E -0.750%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-23 17:05
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -2.40%E -0.750%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 18:04
Ladbrokes (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 17:05
Neds2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-06 17:05
Unibet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:10
TABtouch2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Casumo2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:09
Grosvenor2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:10
Svenska Spel2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:35
betPARX2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:35
Bally Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:35
ATG (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:35
BetRivers2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 00:09
Sky Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-26 05:20
TAB2.60I 38.46%NM 35.78%EV -5.37%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.22%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-25 15:10
Betsson2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -6.10%E -2.36%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.78%EV -6.65%E -2.36%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -0.877%E -0.270%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 15:08
NordicBet2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -6.10%E -2.36%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.78%EV -6.65%E -2.36%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.31%EV -0.877%E -0.270%K -0.390%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-25 15:10
BetMGM2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -5.65%E -1.98%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -2.40%E -0.750%K -1.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-11 18:09
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.93%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.43%EV -2.40%E -0.750%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-24 18:29
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 06:09
betano_uk2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-14 06:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-09 07:34
Everygame2.55I 39.22%NM 36.03%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.82%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.15%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-13 12:14
PMU (FR)2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -7.19%E -2.82%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.48%EV -12.16%E -4.22%K -6.47%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-22 00:10
BetUS2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-09 21:40
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -7.31%E -2.61%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 09:35
Winamax (DE)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -10.62%E -3.93%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-23 12:50
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -10.62%E -3.93%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-06-26 05:18
LeoVegas2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 12:50
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-23 12:49
DraftKings2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -8.96%E -3.26%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.3%2026-07-15 18:55
PlayUp2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.62%E -3.93%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-25 15:10
LiveScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.62%E -3.93%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -13.08%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Virgin Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 35.67%EV -9.01%E -3.60%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -10.62%E -3.93%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.29%EV -13.08%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-22 00:09
Winamax (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -10.83%E -4.42%K -7.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.89%EV -12.27%E -4.63%K -7.44%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.45%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-23 12:50
Betclic (FR)2.42I 41.32%NM 36.98%EV -11.92%E -4.93%K -8.39%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.90%EV -9.96%E -3.66%K -5.79%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.13%EV -9.42%E -3.17%K -4.78%G +0.000%11.8%2026-07-23 18:50
NetBet (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.48%EV -12.65%E -5.27%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 32.79%EV -11.61%E -4.35%K -6.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.72%EV -13.08%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%14.2%2026-07-22 13:45
BoyleSports2.40I 41.67%NM 36.45%EV -12.65%E -5.27%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.39%EV -13.27%E -5.06%K -8.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -11.55%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-23 16:40
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.08%EV -14.47%E -6.16%K -10.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -12.27%E -4.63%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.04%EV -11.55%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-23 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.50%4.1%2026-07-25 14:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.50%4.1%2026-07-25 14:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.50%4.1%2026-07-25 14:15
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 34.92%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.66%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%6.1%2026-07-25 14:20