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Napoli v Bologna

2026-09-13 16:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Napoli (Local)

Prediction 60.03%1.67fair odd
EV +0.247%
Edge +0.148%
Kelly +0.369%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.51%59.73%60.14%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.561.571.6768.97%64.09%63.69%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bologna (Visit)

Prediction 16.12%6.20fair odd
EV +5.61%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.057%

assuming max odds 6.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.04%16.07%16.11%17.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.785.756.5520.41%17.30%17.39%15.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.85%4.19fair odd
EV +0.161%
Edge +0.038%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.49%24.20%23.75%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.883.904.2029.41%25.79%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Napoli (Local): 60.03%; Bologna (Visit): 16.12%; Draw: 23.85%. For Bologna (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.20. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.55, producing a positive expected value of +5.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.85%EV -2.75%E -1.70%K -4.44%G +0.000%6.55I 15.27%NM 15.05%EV +5.61%E +0.857%K +1.01%G +0.057%4.09I 24.45%NM 24.10%EV -2.46%E -0.602%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.4%2026-08-30 19:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.91%EV -5.16%E -3.26%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.04%EV +3.19%E +0.499%K +0.591%G +0.019%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.06%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-30 19:00
SportsBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.99%EV -6.36%E -4.07%K -11.35%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.22%EV +0.774%E +0.124%K +0.147%G +0.001%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.79%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 16:10
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -3.26%E -0.543%K -0.651%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-30 16:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV +0.247%E +0.148%K +0.369%G +0.001%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.26%E -0.543%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -18.92%E -5.56%K -7.88%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -3.26%E -0.543%K -0.651%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 16:10
Sky Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.39%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -3.26%E -0.543%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 16:10
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -3.26%E -0.543%K -0.651%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 16:10
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.96%E -6.64%K -19.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -3.26%E -0.543%K -0.651%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.38%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 16:10
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.07%EV -3.35%E -2.08%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -7.29%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 18:35
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -4.55%E -2.86%K -7.72%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -7.29%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-30 18:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -3.95%E -2.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -7.29%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -3.95%E -2.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.48%EV -7.29%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 18:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.14%EV -7.56%E -4.91%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -7.29%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-30 15:55
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -8.16%E -5.33%K -15.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -7.29%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -9.38%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 17:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.70%EV -9.96%E -6.64%K -19.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -7.29%E -1.27%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.47%EV -7.47%E -1.93%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-30 15:53
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.94%EV -6.96%E -4.49%K -12.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.57%EV -8.09%E -1.42%K -1.72%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV +0.161%E +0.038%K +0.050%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 16:10
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -3.95%E -2.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -9.71%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.96%EV -3.95%E -2.47%K -6.59%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -9.71%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -6.99%E -1.79%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-30 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 60.96%EV -12.96%E -8.94%K -28.80%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.78%EV -9.71%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -9.38%E -2.47%K -3.35%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-30 15:54
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -11.32%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -10.57%E -2.82%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-30 18:50
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -11.32%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.76%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 18:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -11.32%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.76%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 18:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.49%EV -5.76%E -3.67%K -10.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.70%EV -11.32%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -11.76%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 18:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.19%EV -8.76%E -5.76%K -16.84%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -12.93%E -2.39%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -4.61%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 15:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.92%EV -11.76%E -8.00%K -25.02%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.68%EV -20.99%E -4.28%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -11.76%E -3.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-30 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 58.83%5.26I 19.01%NM 17.78%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%6.9%2026-08-30 19:05
Arbitrage (5 combinations) +1.05%PointsBet (AU) 1.67 (60.5%) / 1xBet 6.55 (15.4%) / Tipico (DE) 4.20 (24.1%)Show all 5 combinations
Napoli (Local)Bologna (Visit)DrawMargin
PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.67 (60.5%)1xBet🎯 6.55 (15.4%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.20 (24.1%)+1.05%
PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.67 (60.3%)Marathon Bet🎯 6.40 (15.7%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.20 (24.0%)+0.690%
PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.67 (60.1%)1xBet🎯 6.55 (15.3%)1xBet🎯 4.09 (24.5%)+0.404%
PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.67 (60.1%)SportsBet🎯 6.25 (16.0%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.20 (23.9%)+0.311%
PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.67 (59.9%)Marathon Bet🎯 6.40 (15.6%)1xBet🎯 4.09 (24.5%)+0.045%