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Napoli v AS Roma

2026-10-24 16:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Napoli (Local)

Prediction 33.84%2.95fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.638%
Kelly -0.974%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.53%33.69%33.90%34.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.752.752.9040.00%36.36%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AS Roma (Visit)

Prediction 38.97%2.57fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.712%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%38.97%38.94%40.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.382.402.5246.51%42.08%41.67%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.18%3.68fair odd
EV -0.776%
Edge -0.213%
Kelly -0.293%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.47%27.34%27.16%28.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.413.403.6530.77%29.36%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Napoli (Local): 33.84%; AS Roma (Visit): 38.97%; Draw: 27.18%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.68. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.65, with an expected value of -0.776%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.95%EV -1.85%E -0.638%K -0.974%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.07%EV -1.79%E -0.712%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.98%EV -0.776%E -0.213%K -0.293%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-11 20:49
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.65%EV -1.85%E -0.638%K -0.974%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.52%E -1.85%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.70%EV -10.29%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-12 00:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.93%EV -4.56%E -1.62%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.52%E -1.85%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.03%EV -3.77%E -1.06%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-11 20:44
Pinnacle🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.90%EV -4.90%E -1.74%K -2.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.88%EV -4.52%E -1.85%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -4.85%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 21:15
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.24%E -1.87%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.85%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 20:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.24%E -1.87%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.85%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 20:19
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.24%E -1.87%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.85%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 20:19
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.85%E -1.39%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 21:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 20:14
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.29%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 21:04
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.29%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 21:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.29%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 21:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.47%E -2.70%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -10.29%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 21:04
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.74%EV -7.25%E -3.05%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 20:14
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -8.42%E -3.58%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -7.57%E -2.23%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 20:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -16.21%E -7.54%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -10.29%E -3.12%K -4.47%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-11 20:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 33.35%EV -9.30%E -3.47%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -12.32%E -5.47%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.92%EV -9.75%E -2.94%K -4.20%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-11 20:16
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.53%EV -10.31%E -3.89%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -8.42%E -3.58%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -6.21%E -1.80%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 20:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.42%EV -15.39%E -6.16%K -10.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.11%EV -14.26%E -6.48%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%EV -11.65%E -3.58%K -5.18%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-11 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.86I 34.97%NM 33.32%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.06%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.62%4.9%2026-10-11 20:35