The School of Odds
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Lazio v Cagliari

2026-11-01 14:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lazio (Local)

Prediction 59.14%1.69fair odd
EV -1.83%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -2.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.06%59.44%59.29%63.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.551.571.6671.43%64.45%63.69%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cagliari (Visit)

Prediction 16.82%5.94fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.428%
Kelly +0.512%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.82%16.74%16.69%18.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.605.756.1020.00%17.86%17.39%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.04%4.16fair odd
EV +3.36%
Edge +0.782%
Kelly +1.02%
Growth +0.034%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%23.83%24.02%24.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.933.964.3027.03%25.46%25.25%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lazio (Local): 59.14%; Cagliari (Visit): 16.82%; Draw: 24.04%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.16. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.30, producing a positive expected value of +3.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.68%EV -13.06%E -8.89%K -27.80%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV -2.43%E -0.420%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.43%EV +3.36%E +0.782%K +1.02%G +0.034%8.5%2026-10-25 20:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -11.29%E -7.53%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV +0.930%E +0.155%K +0.186%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +0.960%E +0.229%K +0.300%G +0.003%7.1%2026-10-25 20:40
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -11.29%E -7.53%K -22.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -3.28%E -0.570%K -0.690%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -1.44%E -0.352%K -0.466%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-26 00:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.50%EV -17.20%E -12.29%K -43.01%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV +0.930%E +0.155%K +0.186%G +0.002%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -1.44%E -0.352%K -0.466%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-25 20:40
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 59.33%EV -1.83%E -1.10%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.02I 16.61%NM 16.36%EV +1.27%E +0.210%K +0.252%G +0.003%4.05I 24.69%NM 24.32%EV -2.65%E -0.653%K -0.868%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-25 21:01
Fanatics🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.74%EV -5.97%E -3.75%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -3.28%E -0.570%K -0.690%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.75%EV -3.85%E -0.962%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-25 21:20
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -7.15%E -4.55%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +0.930%E +0.155%K +0.186%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -3.85%E -0.962%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-25 20:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.89%EV -6.56%E -4.15%K -11.31%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -3.28%E -0.570%K -0.690%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -3.85%E -0.962%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-25 20:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.15%E -4.55%K -12.54%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.51%EV -4.12%E -0.722%K -0.876%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -3.85%E -0.962%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 22:10
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -13.06%E -8.89%K -27.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV +0.930%E +0.155%K +0.186%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -3.85%E -0.962%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-25 20:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.50%EV -15.43%E -10.79%K -35.88%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.15%EV -0.752%E -0.127%K -0.153%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.35%EV -3.85%E -0.962%K -1.28%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 20:39
GTbets🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.54%EV -7.15%E -4.55%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.58%EV +2.61%E +0.428%K +0.512%G +0.013%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.88%EV -4.33%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-26 00:10
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -5.38%E -3.36%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.62I 17.79%NM 16.86%EV -5.46%E -0.972%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 23.93%EV -4.81%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 21:41
Marathon Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.39%EV -4.78%E -2.97%K -7.84%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.34%EV -1.59%E -0.272%K -0.328%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.27%EV -5.29%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-25 21:01
Bet Right🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.99%EV -8.33%E -5.38%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -3.28%E -0.570%K -0.690%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-25 20:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 61.25%EV -16.61%E -11.78%K -40.52%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.61%EV -12.53%E -2.41%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.14%EV -6.25%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-25 20:40
PlayUp🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.37%EV -8.33%E -5.38%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -7.48%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.90%EV -7.45%E -1.94%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 21:27
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.96%EV -3.60%E -2.21%K -5.72%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.18%EV -7.48%E -1.36%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 20:40
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.40%EV -7.15%E -4.55%K -12.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.47%EV -11.69%E -2.23%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -8.66%E -2.28%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 20:39
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.91%EV -5.97%E -3.75%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.54%EV -11.69%E -2.23%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.86%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 21:20
Everygame🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.22%EV -7.15%E -4.55%K -12.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.41%EV -11.69%E -2.23%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -9.86%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 23:24
888sport🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -5.38%E -3.36%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -15.89%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-26 00:10
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -5.38%E -3.36%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -15.89%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-26 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -5.38%E -3.36%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -15.89%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-26 00:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -5.38%E -3.36%K -8.96%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -15.89%E -3.18%K -3.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -11.06%E -2.99%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-26 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.33%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.01%4.1%2026-10-25 22:11
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.93%13.3%2026-10-25 20:40
Arbitrage (1 combination) +0.11%1xBet 1.66 (60.3%) / GTbets 6.10 (16.4%) / Winamax (DE) 4.30 (23.3%)Show details
Lazio (Local)Cagliari (Visit)DrawMargin
1xBet🎯 1.66 (60.3%)GTbets🎯 6.10 (16.4%)Winamax (DE)🎯 4.30 (23.3%)+0.110%