The School of Odds

Genoa v Napoli

2026-08-22 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

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Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Genoa (Local)

Prediction 20.27%4.93fair odd
EV +5.41%
Edge +1.04%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.070%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.92%20.17%20.33%21.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.304.724.655.2023%21%22%19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Napoli (Visit)

Prediction 51.25%1.95fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.02%51.36%51.35%55.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.661.781.801.9160%56%56%52%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 28.48%3.51fair odd
EV -0.325%
Edge -0.093%
Kelly -0.130%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.62%28.47%28.32%29.71%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.053.343.333.5033%30%30%29%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
TABtouch5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
Casumo5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (SE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:09
Grosvenor5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (NL)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
Svenska Spel5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:35
betPARX5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:35
Bally Bet5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:35
ATG (SE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:35
BetRivers5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:09
PMU (FR)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV +5.41%E +1.04%K +1.29%G +0.070%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -13.90%E -8.27%K -20.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-22 00:10
1xBet5.06I 19.76%NM 19.45%EV +2.57%E +0.509%K +0.634%G +0.016%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.52%EV -2.11%E -1.11%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 29.03%EV -3.46%E -1.02%K -1.45%G +0.000%1.6%2026-07-22 12:13
Marathon Bet4.95I 20.20%NM 19.46%EV +0.345%E +0.070%K +0.087%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 51.52%EV -4.16%E -2.23%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.02%EV -5.45%E -1.64%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-22 12:14
Caesars4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV -2.70%E -0.562%K -0.710%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -4.16%E -2.23%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.60%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-14 09:37
Tipico (DE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -2.70%E -0.562%K -0.710%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-24 17:04
BetOnline.ag4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.71%E -0.781%K -0.989%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.15%EV -4.68%E -2.51%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 20:24
LowVig.ag4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.71%E -0.781%K -0.989%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.15%EV -4.68%E -2.51%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 20:25
BetUS4.75I 21.05%NM 19.69%EV -3.71%E -0.781%K -0.989%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.96%EV -7.75%E -4.31%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.34%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 07:15
LiveScore Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -3.71%E -0.781%K -0.989%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.98%EV -14.93%E -8.99%K -22.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-22 00:10
Virgin Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -3.71%E -0.781%K -0.989%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 53.98%EV -14.93%E -8.99%K -22.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-22 00:09
Pinnacle4.74I 21.10%NM 19.81%EV -3.91%E -0.825%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.48%EV -4.68%E -2.51%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.71%EV -10.01%E -3.17%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-03 19:30
Bovada4.70I 21.28%NM 20.31%EV -4.72%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.77%EV -3.65%E -1.94%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.92%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-24 16:44
Codere (IT)4.70I 21.28%NM 20.26%EV -4.72%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.74%EV -5.70%E -3.10%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 07:20
Betsson4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -4.72%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 15:08
NordicBet4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV -4.72%E -1.00%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.39%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -4.60%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-25 15:10
SportsBet4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -6.75%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.06%EV -6.21%E -3.39%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-24 15:44
Everygame4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -6.75%E -1.47%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.30%EV -6.21%E -3.39%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-18 17:20
betfred_uk4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -6.21%E -3.39%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-24 15:50
Coral4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 01:44
BetMGM4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 01:44
TAB4.50I 22.22%NM 21.03%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.14%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 15:10
Betr (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 21.02%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.96%EV -6.73%E -3.70%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -0.325%E -0.093%K -0.130%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-23 05:59
Ladbrokes (AU)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 01:44
Neds4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 01:44
Ladbrokes (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.72%EV -5.19%E -2.80%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-11 01:45
Sky Bet4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.75%E -4.31%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 00:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -7.75%E -4.31%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-22 00:35
LeoVegas4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.40%EV -7.75%E -4.31%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-22 07:20
FanDuel4.50I 22.22%NM 20.55%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.25%EV -9.29%E -5.25%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-24 15:45
Winamax (DE)4.50I 22.22%NM 20.47%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.18%EV -7.75%E -4.31%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -7.45%E -2.29%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-22 07:20
Betway4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -8.78%E -1.95%K -2.51%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.08%EV -6.21%E -3.39%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.56%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-17 00:25
Bet Victor4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -10.80%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -6.21%E -3.39%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 09:05
betano_uk4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -10.80%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -6.21%E -3.39%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-25 09:04
Paddy Power4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -10.80%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.29%EV -10.31%E -5.89%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -3.17%E -0.933%K -1.32%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-24 15:43
Winamax (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -10.80%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.28%EV -9.80%E -5.57%K -12.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-22 07:20
DraftKings4.40I 22.73%NM 20.46%EV -10.80%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.02%EV -7.75%E -4.31%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.52%EV -13.14%E -4.31%K -6.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-15 18:55
NetBet (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 19.94%EV -10.80%E -2.46%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 51.30%EV -12.36%E -7.23%K -17.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -13.14%E -4.31%K -6.41%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-22 07:25
Unibet (UK)4.35I 22.99%NM 21.00%EV -11.82%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 51.32%EV -8.78%E -4.93%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.02%E -1.82%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-23 05:59
Betclic (FR)4.35I 22.99%NM 20.48%EV -11.82%E -2.72%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -11.34%E -6.55%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 28.02%EV -9.44%E -2.97%K -4.33%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-23 18:50
BoyleSports4.33I 23.09%NM 20.59%EV -12.22%E -2.82%K -3.67%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.54%EV -11.34%E -6.55%K -15.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-23 13:30
PlayUp4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -12.83%E -2.98%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.48%EV -7.75%E -4.31%K -9.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -8.87%E -2.77%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-25 15:10
Unibet (FR)4.30I 23.26%NM 20.34%EV -12.83%E -2.98%K -3.89%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 51.45%EV -12.88%E -7.57%K -18.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.21%EV -11.72%E -3.78%K -5.58%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-22 07:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.41%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%5.0%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.41%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%5.0%2026-07-25 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.41%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%5.0%2026-07-25 12:50
Smarkets4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%1.79I 55.87%NM 51.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%7.5%2026-07-25 12:50