Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fiorentina v Torino

2026-09-05 13:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fiorentina (Local)

Prediction 53.25%1.88fair odd
EV -0.421%
Edge -0.225%
Kelly -0.484%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.04%53.02%53.17%54.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.751.751.8761.35%57.10%57.14%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Torino (Visit)

Prediction 19.84%5.04fair odd
EV +4.18%
Edge +0.795%
Kelly +0.983%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.18%19.68%19.95%21.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.624.605.2524.39%21.62%21.74%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.91%3.72fair odd
EV -2.33%
Edge -0.642%
Kelly -0.886%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.14%27.30%26.88%30.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.503.6332.26%29.07%28.57%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fiorentina (Local): 53.25%; Torino (Visit): 19.84%; Draw: 26.91%. For Torino (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.04. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.25, producing a positive expected value of +4.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.04%EV -0.421%E -0.225%K -0.484%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.18%EV +4.18%E +0.795%K +0.983%G +0.041%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.79%EV -16.59%E -5.35%K -7.90%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-24 18:49
1xBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 53.22%EV -1.49%E -0.803%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.65%EV -0.587%E -0.117%K -0.146%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 27.12%EV -2.33%E -0.642%K -0.886%G +0.000%1.6%2026-08-24 15:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.21%EV -3.62%E -2.00%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.66%EV -2.77%E -0.565%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.13%EV -4.48%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-24 15:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.85%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.23%EV -2.77%E -0.565%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.92%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-24 18:14
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.64%EV -5.75%E -3.25%K -7.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.99%EV -5.75%E -1.21%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -3.14%E -0.872%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-24 14:44
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.39%EV -5.21%E -2.93%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.22%EV -6.74%E -1.43%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.40%EV -3.14%E -0.872%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-24 14:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.60%EV -9.47%E -5.57%K -13.53%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.60%EV -7.73%E -1.66%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.80%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 17:48
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.87%EV -4.15%E -2.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.14%E -0.872%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-24 14:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.15%EV -5.21%E -2.93%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.57%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -3.14%E -0.872%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-24 14:04
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.63%EV -4.15%E -2.30%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.20%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-24 15:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.77%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.07%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-24 16:48
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.75%EV -8.94%E -5.23%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-24 14:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.53%EV -13.20%E -8.10%K -20.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.32%EV -8.72%E -1.90%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.14%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-24 17:49
Bet Right🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.80%EV -6.28%E -3.57%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.65%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-24 14:04
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.94%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-24 14:09
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.23%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.46%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-24 14:04
Winamax (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.37%EV -8.41%E -4.89%K -11.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-24 17:49
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.82%EV -7.88%E -4.55%K -10.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.31%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-24 16:54
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 15:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 15:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -6.81%E -3.89%K -9.08%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -11.21%E -3.40%K -4.87%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-24 15:44
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.25%EV -9.47%E -5.57%K -13.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.12%EV -10.71%E -2.38%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-24 16:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.50%EV -12.67%E -7.72%K -19.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.00%EV -18.64%E -4.55%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.49%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-24 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.85I 54.05%NM 52.44%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.38%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.18%3.1%2026-08-24 19:50
Smarkets1.65I 60.61%NM 51.94%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.41%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.65%16.7%2026-08-24 17:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 32.72%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%180.4%2026-08-24 15:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 32.72%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%180.4%2026-08-24 14:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79%1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42%187.7%2026-08-24 14:34