The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Fiorentina v Como

2026-10-18 13:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fiorentina (Local)

Prediction 28.67%3.49fair odd
EV -0.788%
Edge -0.228%
Kelly -0.321%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.69%28.69%29.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.233.253.4634.48%30.93%30.77%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Como (Visit)

Prediction 45.44%2.20fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.62%45.48%45.35%46.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.882.042.052.1453.19%49.07%48.78%46.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.88%3.86fair odd
EV -0.356%
Edge -0.092%
Kelly -0.125%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.71%25.84%25.96%26.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.623.603.8529.85%27.62%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fiorentina (Local): 28.67%; Como (Visit): 45.44%; Draw: 25.88%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -0.356%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.46I 28.90%NM 28.45%EV -0.788%E -0.228%K -0.321%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.99%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.56%EV -0.356%E -0.092%K -0.125%G +0.000%1.6%2026-09-21 11:18
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.51%E -0.738%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-21 10:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.36I 29.76%NM 28.46%EV -3.66%E -1.09%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.97%EV -5.48%E -2.63%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.57%EV -3.20%E -0.856%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-21 11:17
Pinnacle🎯3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -4.52%E -1.36%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.55%EV -5.02%E -2.40%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.87%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 11:19
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.10%EV -4.11%E -1.95%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -5.53%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-21 10:24
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -1.65%E -0.434%K -0.589%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 10:24
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -1.65%E -0.434%K -0.589%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 10:39
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.28%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -1.65%E -0.434%K -0.589%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 10:39
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -5.38%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -2.94%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-21 10:24
Betsson🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.21%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.78%EV -3.66%E -1.73%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -5.53%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 10:24
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.62%EV -3.66%E -1.73%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 10:24
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -2.94%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 10:39
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-21 11:14
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-21 11:14
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-21 11:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -6.81%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-21 11:14
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.33%EV -9.11%E -4.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -2.94%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-21 10:44
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.24%E -2.58%K -3.75%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -6.84%E -3.34%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-21 10:24
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -9.68%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.81%EV -9.11%E -4.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -5.53%E -1.52%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 10:24
LeoVegas🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -9.68%E -3.07%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.24%EV -8.20%E -4.06%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -8.12%E -2.29%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-21 10:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 28.63%EV -10.54%E -3.38%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 45.34%EV -10.47%E -5.32%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.04%EV -11.23%E -3.27%K -4.62%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-21 10:23
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -9.11%E -4.56%K -9.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.83%E -1.90%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 10:24
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.38%E -5.84%K -11.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-21 11:19
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -11.11%E -3.58%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.65%EV -14.56%E -7.75%K -16.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -9.41%E -2.69%K -3.77%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-21 10:24
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.62%EV -16.85%E -5.81%K -8.87%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 44.74%EV -12.75%E -6.64%K -13.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.64%EV -13.30%E -3.97%K -5.66%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-21 10:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.96I 33.78%NM 29.10%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.40%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.50%16.1%2026-09-21 10:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 11:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 11:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-21 12:04