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Cagliari v Inter Milan

2026-08-30 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cagliari (Local)

Prediction 14.01%7.14fair odd
EV +5.08%
Edge +0.677%
Kelly +0.781%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.70%13.87%14.02%16.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.636.507.5018.52%15.08%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Inter Milan (Visit)

Prediction 63.41%1.58fair odd
EV -2.98%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -5.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.10%63.42%63.29%64.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.471.481.5370.42%67.86%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.58%4.43fair odd
EV +0.020%
Edge +0.005%
Kelly +0.006%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.92%22.71%22.69%25.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.074.004.4326.32%24.57%25.00%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cagliari (Local): 14.01%; Inter Milan (Visit): 63.41%; Draw: 22.58%. For Cagliari (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.14. 4 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.50, producing a positive expected value of +5.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PointsBet (AU)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.70%EV +5.08%E +0.677%K +0.781%G +0.040%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.24%EV -2.98%E -1.95%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -14.20%E -3.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 16:04
1xBet🎯7.47I 13.39%NM 13.16%EV +4.66%E +0.623%K +0.720%G +0.034%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.66%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 22.19%EV +0.020%E +0.005%K +0.006%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-23 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯7.30I 13.70%NM 13.18%EV +2.27%E +0.312%K +0.361%G +0.008%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.59%EV -5.52%E -3.70%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.23%EV -2.24%E -0.517%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 15:43
Tipico (DE)🎯7.20I 13.89%NM 13.09%EV +0.873%E +0.121%K +0.141%G +0.001%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.99%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.92%EV -2.92%E -0.678%K -0.883%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 15:35
Fanatics🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.59%EV -1.93%E -0.276%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.28%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.13%EV -2.92%E -0.678%K -0.883%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 15:29
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -1.93%E -0.276%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.92%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 15:39
PlayUp🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.08%EV -1.93%E -0.276%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.14%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.78%EV -13.08%E -3.40%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 18:54
Pinnacle🎯6.87I 14.56%NM 13.78%EV -3.75%E -0.546%K -0.639%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.99%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.23%EV -3.82%E -0.896%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 16:35
Betr (AU)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.99%EV -5.43%E -0.805%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.97%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-23 15:39
SportsBet🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.93%EV -5.43%E -0.805%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.13%EV -5.52%E -3.70%K -11.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 15:39
Codere (IT)🎯6.60I 15.15%NM 14.46%EV -7.53%E -1.14%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.81%EV -3.61%E -2.38%K -6.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.17%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 16:39
Unibet (UK)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 16:39
LeoVegas🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 18:49
Sky Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.28%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 15:39
FanDuel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.95%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -7.43%E -1.81%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 15:35
Bet Right🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.09%EV -4.88%E -3.25%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.58%EV -10.82%E -2.74%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 15:39
Betway🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.22%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.76%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -5.17%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:54
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 15:34
Paddy Power🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 15:39
888sport🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 15:29
William Hill🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 15:29
888sport (SE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.01%EV -8.93%E -1.37%K -1.62%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.23%EV -8.69%E -6.03%K -19.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -9.69%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 15:29
Betclic (FR)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.65%EV -12.44%E -1.99%K -2.37%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 62.73%EV -7.42%E -5.08%K -16.13%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.61%EV -8.56%E -2.11%K -2.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 16:43
Unibet (FR)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 14.77%EV -14.54%E -2.38%K -2.85%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.13%EV -8.05%E -5.55%K -17.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -11.95%E -3.06%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 18:49
Winamax (DE)🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 15.65%EV -17.34%E -2.94%K -3.54%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.37%EV -6.15%E -4.16%K -12.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.98%EV -5.17%E -1.23%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-23 16:39
Winamax (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.07%EV -24.35%E -4.51%K -5.53%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 61.10%EV -9.95%E -7.01%K -23.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%EV -14.20%E -3.74%K -5.07%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-23 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎6.67I 14.99%NM 14.57%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.10%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.34%2.9%2026-08-23 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%4.9%2026-08-23 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%4.9%2026-08-23 18:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.84%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.25%4.9%2026-08-23 18:05
Smarkets◎7.80I 12.82%NM 12.06%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.43%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%6.3%2026-08-23 18:20