The School of Odds

Atalanta BC v Sassuolo

2026-08-23 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

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Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Atalanta BC (Local)

Prediction 61.67%1.62fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -3.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.69%61.69%61.71%63.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.421.511.501.5970%66%67%63%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sassuolo (Visit)

Prediction 16.52%6.05fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.260%
Kelly +0.310%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 6.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.16%16.54%16.45%17.70%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.005.695.756.1520%18%17%16%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 21.81%4.58fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.411%
Kelly -0.528%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.92%21.76%21.84%22.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.274.304.5025%23%23%22%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.50%EV +1.60%E +0.260%K +0.310%G +0.005%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -6.21%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 20:24
LowVig.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 62.32%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.15I 16.26%NM 15.50%EV +1.60%E +0.260%K +0.310%G +0.005%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.17%EV -6.21%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 20:25
1xBet1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02%EV -1.95%E -1.22%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.14I 16.29%NM 16.06%EV +1.43%E +0.233%K +0.279%G +0.004%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%EV -1.85%E -0.411%K -0.528%G +0.000%1.4%2026-07-17 04:35
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 62.09%EV -4.41%E -2.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.04%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.87%EV -4.03%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-17 04:30
betfred_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -1.85%E -0.411%K -0.528%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 04:10
Caesars1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-25 22:46
Betr (AU)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.03%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-23 05:59
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.64%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-19 11:00
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 63.17%EV -8.73%E -5.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -4.03%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-19 11:00
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-19 10:00
betano_uk1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 08:38
SportsBet1.47I 68.03%NM 63.33%EV -9.35%E -6.36%K -19.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -4.03%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-19 11:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.11%EV -9.35%E -6.36%K -19.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.43%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-09 07:34
Paddy Power1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -11.20%E -7.78%K -25.45%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -0.881%E -0.147%K -0.176%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-19 11:00
Betsson1.55I 64.52%NM 61.45%EV -4.41%E -2.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.14%EV -2.53%E -0.429%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%EV -7.30%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 21:59
NordicBet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.45%EV -4.41%E -2.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.14%EV -2.53%E -0.429%K -0.517%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.41%EV -7.30%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 21:59
Codere (IT)1.54I 64.94%NM 61.90%EV -5.03%E -3.27%K -9.32%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.44%EV -4.19%E -0.722%K -0.872%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -4.03%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-25 05:05
Tipico (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.82%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -4.19%E -0.722%K -0.872%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.94%EV -1.85%E -0.411%K -0.528%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-25 06:00
Coral1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -5.01%E -0.871%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 20:20
BetMGM1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -5.01%E -0.871%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-16 20:19
Ladbrokes (AU)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -5.01%E -0.871%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-16 20:20
Neds1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -5.01%E -0.871%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-16 20:20
Ladbrokes (UK)1.53I 65.36%NM 61.34%EV -5.65%E -3.69%K -10.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -5.01%E -0.871%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-16 20:20
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -6.26%E -4.12%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.61%EV -6.83%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.74%EV -5.99%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-19 15:00
BetUS1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -6.26%E -4.12%K -12.05%G +0.000%5.64I 17.73%NM 16.61%EV -6.83%E -1.21%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.31I 23.20%NM 21.74%EV -5.99%E -1.39%K -1.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-21 23:19
Bovada1.56I 64.10%NM 61.23%EV -3.80%E -2.43%K -6.78%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.06%EV -7.49%E -1.34%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -4.03%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-25 15:09
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -4.41%E -2.85%K -8.03%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -9.14%E -1.66%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -7.30%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-19 06:10
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.14%E -1.66%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-17 04:30
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.14%E -1.66%K -2.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -12.75%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-22 21:59
NetBet (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 61.62%EV -12.43%E -8.75%K -29.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.51%EV -12.44%E -2.35%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.87%EV -12.75%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-22 13:45
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -13.27%E -2.53%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -5.56%E -1.28%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-22 09:35
Unibet (UK)1.50I 66.67%NM 60.87%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.39%EV -13.27%E -2.53%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-25 05:00
DraftKings1.49I 67.11%NM 60.71%EV -8.11%E -5.45%K -16.56%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.23%EV -13.27%E -2.53%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -10.57%E -2.58%K -3.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-06 11:15
Betclic (FR)1.46I 68.49%NM 61.03%EV -9.96%E -6.82%K -21.66%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.97%EV -13.27%E -2.53%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.00%EV -11.66%E -2.88%K -3.82%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-25 04:59
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.37%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.70%EV -14.10%E -2.71%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -4.03%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-25 05:00
LeoVegas1.50I 66.67%NM 61.08%EV -7.50%E -5.00%K -14.99%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -14.10%E -2.71%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -6.21%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-25 05:00
Winamax (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 60.88%EV -8.73%E -5.90%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.67%EV -15.75%E -3.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-25 05:00
Unibet (FR)1.45I 68.97%NM 60.72%EV -10.58%E -7.30%K -23.51%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.26%EV -15.75%E -3.09%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.01%EV -12.75%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.6%2026-07-25 05:00
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -11.20%E -7.78%K -25.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -17.40%E -3.48%K -4.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -8.39%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-23 14:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 62.09%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.52%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%3.9%2026-07-25 09:10
Smarkets1.49I 67.11%NM 63.33%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.22%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%6.0%2026-07-25 09:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%7.0%2026-07-25 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.08%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.74%7.0%2026-07-25 16:00