Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Roma v Fiorentina

2026-08-22 13:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Roma (Local)

Prediction 61.77%1.62fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -2.33%
Kelly -6.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.99%61.91%61.77%64.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.491.5671.43%67.59%67.11%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fiorentina (Visit)

Prediction 15.29%6.54fair odd
EV +3.21%
Edge +0.475%
Kelly +0.557%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.49%15.32%15.34%17.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.806.066.406.7520.83%16.51%15.63%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.94%4.36fair odd
EV +2.07%
Edge +0.465%
Kelly +0.600%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.41%22.77%22.89%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.014.104.4527.78%24.92%24.39%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: AS Roma (Local): 61.77%; Fiorentina (Visit): 15.29%; Draw: 22.94%. For Fiorentina (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.54. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.75, producing a positive expected value of +3.21%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 63.22%EV -3.63%E -2.33%K -6.49%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.61%EV +3.21%E +0.475%K +0.557%G +0.018%4.45I 22.47%NM 22.16%EV +2.07%E +0.465%K +0.600%G +0.012%1.4%2026-06-24 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.09%EV -9.19%E -6.25%K -19.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -0.617%E -0.095%K -0.112%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.41%EV +0.924%E +0.210%K +0.272%G +0.003%6.1%2026-06-24 07:10
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:10
TABtouch🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:09
Grosvenor🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:35
betPARX🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:35
Bally Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:35
BetRivers🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.65%EV -7.96%E -5.34%K -16.24%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.59%EV -2.15%E -0.335%K -0.397%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-22 00:09
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.64%EV -11.66%E -8.16%K -27.13%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.68%EV -6.73%E -1.10%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.68%EV -9.40%E -2.38%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.6%2026-06-20 06:10
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.77%EV -11.05%E -7.67%K -25.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.82%EV -8.26%E -1.38%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -12.84%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-24 21:59
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.55%EV -6.11%E -4.02%K -11.74%G +0.000%5.92I 16.89%NM 15.80%EV -9.48%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.65%EV -5.27%E -1.28%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-17 04:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.17%EV -8.58%E -5.79%K -17.87%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.61%EV -11.32%E -1.95%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -10.54%E -2.70%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -7.34%E -4.89%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -8.25%E -2.06%K -2.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-25 04:26
LiveScore Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.07%EV -9.19%E -6.25%K -19.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.61%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -11.69%E -3.04%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-22 00:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.07%EV -9.19%E -6.25%K -19.56%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.61%EV -12.08%E -2.10%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.32%EV -11.69%E -3.04%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-22 00:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -7.34%E -4.89%K -14.68%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.91%E -2.89%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -5.96%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-25 04:26
Betclic (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.25%EV -9.81%E -6.72%K -21.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -17.44%E -3.23%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.46%EV -13.99%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.7%2026-06-25 04:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.06%EV -9.81%E -6.72%K -21.33%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.24%EV -17.44%E -3.23%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -15.13%E -4.09%K -5.60%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-25 04:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 60.69%EV -13.52%E -9.66%K -33.79%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.03%EV -18.96%E -3.58%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.28%EV -16.28%E -4.46%K -6.14%G +0.000%17.7%2026-07-14 05:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 58.99%EV -11.66%E -8.16%K -27.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 17.57%EV -26.61%E -5.54%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.43%EV -17.43%E -4.84%K -6.70%G +0.000%18.5%2026-06-25 04:26
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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