AS Roma v Fiorentina

2026-08-22 13:00 — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: AS Roma (Local)

Odds

1.4369.93%Min

1.4469.61%Mean

1.4369.93%Median

1.5066.67%Max

Consensus probabilities

62.43%1.602Min

62.64%1.596Max

62.53%1.599Mean

62.53%1.599Median

62.53%1.599IQM

62.51%1.600Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.50 under the IQM model: 62.53%

EV -6.20%Edge -4.13%Kelly -12.40%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Fiorentina (Visit)

Odds

6.1016.39%Min

6.1016.38%Mean

6.1016.39%Median

6.1516.26%Max

Consensus probabilities

14.68%6.810Min

15.23%6.568Max

14.96%6.687Mean

14.96%6.687Median

14.96%6.687IQM

15.02%6.658Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 6.15 under the IQM model: 14.96%

EV -8.03%Edge -1.31%Kelly -1.56%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds

3.9525.32%Min

3.9725.21%Mean

3.9525.32%Median

4.1923.87%Max

Consensus probabilities

22.35%4.475Min

22.78%4.391Max

22.51%4.442Mean

22.51%4.442Median

22.51%4.442IQM

22.47%4.450Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.19 under the IQM model: 22.51%

EV -5.67%Edge -1.35%Kelly -1.78%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	AS Roma (Local) ▼	Fiorentina (Visit)	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	1.56I 64.10% NM 63.22%EV -2.45% E -1.57% K -4.37% G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81% NM 14.61%EV +0.946% E +0.140% K +0.165% G +0.002%	4.45I 22.47% NM 22.16%EV +0.181% E +0.041% K +0.052% G +0.000%	1.4%	2026-06-24 14:20
Pinnacle	1.50I 66.67% NM 62.43%EV -6.20% E -4.13% K -12.40% G +0.000%	6.15I 16.26% NM 15.23%EV -8.03% E -1.31% K -1.56% G +0.000%	4.19I 23.87% NM 22.35%EV -5.67% E -1.35% K -1.78% G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-07-04 05:20
Unibet (UK)	1.50I 66.67% NM 61.13%EV -6.20% E -4.13% K -12.40% G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39% NM 15.95%EV -14.01% E -2.44% K -2.95% G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00% NM 22.92%EV -9.95% E -2.49% K -3.32% G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-06-25 04:26
Winamax (DE)	1.50I 66.67% NM 61.03%EV -6.20% E -4.13% K -12.40% G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18% NM 16.64%EV -17.75% E -3.23% K -3.94% G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39% NM 22.33%EV -7.70% E -1.88% K -2.48% G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-06-25 04:26
Tipico (DE)	1.47I 68.03% NM 64.09%EV -8.08% E -5.49% K -17.19% G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38% NM 14.49%EV -2.79% E -0.430% K -0.508% G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73% NM 21.41%EV -0.945% E -0.215% K -0.278% G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-06-24 07:10
Betclic (FR)	1.46I 68.49% NM 60.25%EV -8.70% E -5.96% K -18.92% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.29%EV -19.24% E -3.56% K -4.37% G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67% NM 23.46%EV -15.58% E -4.15% K -5.66% G +0.000%	13.7%	2026-06-25 04:25
Unibet (FR)	1.46I 68.49% NM 60.06%EV -8.70% E -5.96% K -18.92% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 16.24%EV -19.24% E -3.56% K -4.37% G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03% NM 23.70%EV -16.70% E -4.51% K -6.19% G +0.000%	14.0%	2026-06-25 04:25
Unibet	1.44I 69.44% NM 62.48%EV -9.95% E -6.91% K -22.62% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.75%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.78%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-20 06:09
LiveScore Bet	1.44I 69.44% NM 62.48%EV -9.95% E -6.91% K -22.62% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.75%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.78%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-20 06:10
Virgin Bet	1.44I 69.44% NM 62.48%EV -9.95% E -6.91% K -22.62% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.75%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.78%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.2%	2026-06-20 06:09
BoyleSports	1.44I 69.44% NM 61.77%EV -9.95% E -6.91% K -22.62% G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67% NM 14.82%EV -10.27% E -1.71% K -2.05% G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32% NM 23.41%EV -14.45% E -3.80% K -5.16% G +0.000%	12.4%	2026-06-24 21:59
LeoVegas (SE)	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
TABtouch	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
LeoVegas	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:10
Casumo	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
Unibet (SE)	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
Grosvenor	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
Unibet (NL)	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
Svenska Spel	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
betPARX	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
Bally Bet	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
ATG (SE)	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 06:09
BetRivers	1.43I 69.93% NM 62.64%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	6.10I 16.39% NM 14.68%EV -8.77% E -1.44% K -1.72% G +0.000%	3.95I 25.32% NM 22.68%EV -11.08% E -2.80% K -3.75% G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-06-20 07:59
Winamax (FR)	1.43I 69.93% NM 58.99%EV -10.58% E -7.40% K -24.60% G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83% NM 17.57%EV -28.22% E -5.88% K -7.43% G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78% NM 23.43%EV -18.95% E -5.27% K -7.29% G +0.000%	18.5%	2026-06-25 04:26
NetBet (FR)	1.39I 71.94% NM 61.04%EV -13.08% E -9.41% K -33.54% G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52% NM 15.71%EV -19.24% E -3.56% K -4.37% G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40% NM 23.25%EV -17.83% E -4.88% K -6.73% G +0.000%	17.9%	2026-07-04 10:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth