The School of Odds
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US Catanzaro 1929 v Südtirol

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 16:02 UTC

Final: US Catanzaro 1929 2–2 Südtirol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

US Catanzaro 1929 (Local)

Prediction 47.00%2.13fair odd
EV -0.353%
Edge -0.166%
Kelly -0.315%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.07%46.83%46.94%48.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.001.982.1252.63%49.98%50.51%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Südtirol (Visit)

Prediction 24.38%4.10fair odd
EV -0.051%
Edge -0.012%
Kelly -0.016%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.81%24.50%24.37%27.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.713.704.1030.30%26.97%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.62%3.49fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -0.793%
Kelly -1.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.49%28.67%28.68%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.243.253.4032.26%30.87%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: US Catanzaro 1929 (Local): 47.00%; Südtirol (Visit): 24.38%; Draw: 28.62%. For Südtirol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.102. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.100, with an expected value of -0.051%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%EV -0.353%E -0.166%K -0.315%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -14.68%E -4.19%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 15:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%EV -0.353%E -0.166%K -0.315%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -14.68%E -4.19%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 15:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%EV -0.353%E -0.166%K -0.315%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -14.68%E -4.19%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 15:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%EV -0.353%E -0.166%K -0.315%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -14.68%E -4.19%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 15:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%EV -0.353%E -0.166%K -0.315%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -14.68%E -4.19%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 15:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -1.29%E -0.616%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -12.24%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 15:25
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.07%EV -3.17%E -1.54%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.10%EV -18.33%E -5.47%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-15 15:54
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -3.64%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -12.24%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -2.70%E -0.793%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 15:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.19%EV -3.64%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -18.33%E -5.47%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 15:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.19%EV -3.64%E -1.78%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.04%EV -18.33%E -5.47%K -7.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.76%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-15 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.13%EV -4.11%E -2.02%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.28%EV -19.55%E -5.93%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.58%EV -9.85%E -3.13%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-15 15:54
Codere (IT)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.47%EV -4.58%E -2.26%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -6.15%E -1.60%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.03%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 15:44
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.76%EV -5.52%E -2.75%K -5.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.41%EV -0.051%E -0.012%K -0.016%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.83%EV -4.70%E -1.41%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-15 15:50
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.13%EV -5.99%E -3.00%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.14%EV -8.58%E -2.29%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.73%EV -2.70%E -0.793%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-15 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -5.99%E -3.00%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -9.80%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -2.70%E -0.793%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-15 15:50
BetMGM🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.51%EV -6.93%E -3.50%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -12.24%E -3.40%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 15:50
1xBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -0.051%E -0.012%K -0.016%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-15 15:59
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -2.70%E -0.793%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 16:00
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -2.49%E -0.622%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 15:59
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-15 15:44
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -9.80%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 15:59
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 16:00
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 15:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -4.93%E -1.26%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 15:59
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -8.34%E -4.28%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -17.12%E -5.03%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.28%E -3.64%K -5.37%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 15:59
SportsBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.95%EV -9.28%E -4.81%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.13%EV -2.49%E -0.622%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-15 15:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -10.22%E -5.35%K -11.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -2.49%E -0.622%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 15:59
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -10.22%E -5.35%K -11.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.36%E -1.94%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -6.99%E -2.15%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 15:58
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -10.69%E -5.63%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -2.49%E -0.622%K -0.830%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -8.42%E -2.63%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-15 15:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.86%EV -10.69%E -5.63%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.58%EV -9.80%E -2.65%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -5.56%E -1.68%K -2.42%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-15 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-08-15 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.89%0.3%2026-08-15 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-08-15 16:00