Language:English
Sassuolo v Frosinone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sassuolo (Local)
Prediction 48.91%2.04fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.97
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.45%48.99%48.80%52.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.741.871.871.9757.47%53.49%53.48%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frosinone (Visit)
Prediction 26.16%3.82fair odd
EV +7.27%
Edge +1.77%
Kelly +2.34%
Growth +0.170%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.09%26.12%26.10%27.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.633.604.1029.85%27.54%27.78%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.92%4.01fair odd
EV -0.305%
Edge -0.076%
Kelly -0.102%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.60%24.90%25.10%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.693.754.0028.57%27.08%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sassuolo (Local): 48.91%; Frosinone (Visit): 26.16%; Draw: 24.92%. For Frosinone (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.31%EV -11.47%E -6.34%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV +7.27%E +1.77%K +2.34%G +0.170% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -4.04%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.31%EV -11.47%E -6.34%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV +7.27%E +1.77%K +2.34%G +0.170% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -4.04%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.31%EV -11.47%E -6.34%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV +7.27%E +1.77%K +2.34%G +0.170% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -4.04%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -8.04%E -4.28%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV +0.726%E +0.189%K +0.255%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -8.04%E -4.28%K -9.14%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.54%EV +0.726%E +0.189%K +0.255%G +0.002% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 51.85%EV -14.89%E -8.56%K -20.12%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%EV +0.726%E +0.189%K +0.255%G +0.002% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.72%EV -9.03%E -2.47%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.84%EV -8.53%E -4.56%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.15%EV -1.11%E -0.292%K -0.397%G +0.000% | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.01%EV -1.30%E -0.329%K -0.440%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 12:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.79%EV -3.64%E -1.85%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -3.20%E -0.864%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 25.23%EV -5.04%E -1.32%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-02 12:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -3.20%E -0.864%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-02 12:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -11.96%E -6.64%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -3.20%E -0.864%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-02 12:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -5.60%E -2.90%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -4.51%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 12:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -10.98%E -6.03%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -4.51%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -11.52%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -10.98%E -6.03%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -4.51%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -11.52%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 49.86%EV -11.47%E -6.34%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.72%EV -4.51%E -1.23%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.42%EV -11.52%E -3.25%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%EV -5.60%E -2.90%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.81%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-02 12:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -8.53%E -4.56%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -5.81%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-02 12:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -8.53%E -4.56%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.81%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.05%EV -8.53%E -4.56%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -5.81%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-02 12:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -8.43%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -0.305%E -0.076%K -0.102%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 12:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.43%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -10.27%E -2.85%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.43%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-02 12:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.43%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-02 12:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.43%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-02 12:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.43%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-02 12:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -11.96%E -6.64%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -8.43%E -2.41%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-09-02 12:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.81%EV -8.53%E -4.56%K -9.81%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-02 12:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -9.51%E -5.14%K -11.19%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -5.29%E -1.39%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.58%E -3.44%K -7.23%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -11.05%E -3.25%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.77%E -3.65%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 49.02%EV -10.00%E -5.43%K -11.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.93%EV -12.35%E -3.69%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.05%EV -6.54%E -1.74%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78% | 0.9% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.35% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.98% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-09-02 13:00 |