Language:English
Pisa v Empoli
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Pisa (Local)
Prediction 57.77%1.73fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -2.47%
Kelly -6.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.66
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.73%57.90%57.81%60.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.591.601.6664.94%62.79%62.50%60.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Empoli (Visit)
Prediction 17.87%5.60fair odd
EV +9.71%
Edge +1.58%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.183%
assuming max odds 6.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.57%17.59%17.91%20.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.405.315.256.1422.73%18.83%19.05%16.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.36%4.11fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.641%
Kelly -0.854%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.39%24.50%24.28%25.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.813.804.0027.78%26.28%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pisa (Local): 57.77%; Empoli (Visit): 17.87%; Draw: 24.36%. For Empoli (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.60. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.52%EV -8.72%E -5.52%K -15.03%G +0.000% | 6.14I 16.29%NM 15.57%EV +9.71%E +1.58%K +1.89%G +0.183% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.91%EV -2.56%E -0.641%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-17 15:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -9.30%E -5.92%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV +7.21%E +1.20%K +1.44%G +0.104% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -2.56%E -0.641%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-17 15:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.34%EV -10.45%E -6.74%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.14%EV +1.85%E +0.324%K +0.393%G +0.007% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-17 15:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV +0.060%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV +0.060%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV +0.060%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV +0.060%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.14%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.90%EV +0.060%E +0.011%K +0.013%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.96%EV -3.78%E -0.957%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -9.30%E -5.92%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -1.73%E -0.314%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -2.56%E -0.641%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-17 15:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -9.30%E -5.92%K -16.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -1.73%E -0.314%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.43%E -1.96%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-17 15:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -1.73%E -0.314%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -12.31%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.99%EV -10.45%E -6.74%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -1.73%E -0.314%K -0.384%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.38%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-17 15:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -6.41%E -3.96%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -3.51%E -0.651%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.91%EV -4.67%E -2.83%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.20%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.56%E -0.641%K -0.854%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.01%EV -6.41%E -3.96%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.90%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-17 15:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.16%EV -6.99%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.83%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -5.00%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.79%EV -6.99%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.72%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV -7.43%E -1.96%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.53%EV -10.45%E -6.74%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.53%EV -10.45%E -6.74%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.19%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.49%EV -11.03%E -7.16%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.16%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -9.87%E -2.67%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 58.49%EV -11.03%E -7.16%K -20.43%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.16%EV -6.19%E -1.18%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -9.87%E -2.67%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.28%EV -6.99%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.43%E -1.96%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -6.41%E -3.96%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -12.31%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-17 15:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.87%E -2.67%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-17 15:58 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.06%EV -7.56%E -4.73%K -12.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.87%E -2.67%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-17 15:58 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.99%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.31%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-17 15:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.99%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.31%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-17 15:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -6.99%E -4.34%K -11.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.31%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-17 15:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.03%EV -10.45%E -6.74%K -19.00%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.99%EV -10.66%E -2.13%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-17 15:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.28%EV -4.10%E -2.47%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.87%EV -11.55%E -2.33%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.76I 26.60%NM 24.85%EV -8.41%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-17 15:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -6.41%E -3.96%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -21.38%E -4.86%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -7.43%E -1.96%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.99% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 16.08% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.93% | 0.3% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.71I 58.48%NM 58.02% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44% | 0.8% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.20% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.75% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.05% | 2.4% | 2026-08-17 16:00 |