The School of Odds
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Genoa v Südtirol

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 16:00 UTC

Final: Genoa 1–0 Südtirol

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Genoa (Local)

Prediction 60.34%1.66fair odd
EV -3.46%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -5.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.87%60.41%60.34%62.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.541.531.6068.03%64.83%65.36%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Südtirol (Visit)

Prediction 15.85%6.31fair odd
EV +6.20%
Edge +0.925%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.067%

assuming max odds 6.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.74%15.75%15.98%17.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.805.806.7019.05%17.23%17.24%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.81%4.20fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -0.943%
Kelly -1.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.80%23.84%23.67%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.893.904.0427.78%25.69%25.64%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Genoa (Local): 60.34%; Südtirol (Visit): 15.85%; Draw: 23.81%. For Südtirol (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.31. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.64%EV -11.30%E -7.69%K -24.04%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.74%EV +6.20%E +0.925%K +1.09%G +0.067%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -7.14%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 15:55
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.15%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.64I 15.06%NM 14.32%EV +5.24%E +0.790%K +0.930%G +0.049%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.54%EV -3.81%E -0.943%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 15:59
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.89%EV -3.46%E -2.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.14%EV -5.48%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-15 15:55
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.47%E -4.18%K -11.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 15:55
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 15:45
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-15 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 15:59
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 15:59
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.29%EV -8.28%E -5.45%K -15.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 15:50
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.49%E -6.33%K -18.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 15:56
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.49%E -6.33%K -18.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.61%EV -9.49%E -6.33%K -18.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-15 15:45
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.90%EV -6.47%E -4.18%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -8.07%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -14.29%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 15:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.59%EV -3.46%E -2.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -8.86%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-15 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -6.47%E -4.18%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -8.86%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 15:55
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -8.86%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.14%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-15 15:55
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.66%E -2.95%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 15:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.66%E -2.95%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 15:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.00%EV -8.28%E -5.45%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -15.99%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-15 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.15%EV -7.08%E -4.59%K -13.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -15.99%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-15 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.15%EV -7.08%E -4.59%K -13.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -15.99%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-15 15:55
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.03%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -16.79%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.03%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -16.79%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.98%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%0.5%2026-09-15 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.54%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-09-15 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.54%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-09-15 15:55