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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Genoa v Südtirol

开赛时间： 2026-09-15 16:00 UTC

最终结果： Genoa 1–0 Südtirol

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Genoa (主队)

预测 60.34%1.66公平赔率
EV -3.46%
优势 -2.16%
Kelly -5.76%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.60

博彩公司预测分布
58.87%60.41%60.34%62.64%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.471.541.531.6068.03%64.83%65.36%62.50%最小值均值中位数最大值

Südtirol (客队)

预测 15.85%6.31公平赔率
EV +6.20%
优势 +0.925%
Kelly +1.09%
增长率 +0.067%

假设最高赔率为 6.70

博彩公司预测分布
13.74%15.75%15.98%17.21%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
5.255.805.806.7019.05%17.23%17.24%14.93%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 23.81%4.20公平赔率
EV -3.81%
优势 -0.943%
Kelly -1.25%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 4.04

博彩公司预测分布
22.80%23.84%23.67%25.36%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.603.893.904.0427.78%25.69%25.64%24.75%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Genoa (主队)：60.34%；Südtirol (客队)：15.85%；平局：23.81%。 对于“Südtirol (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为6.31。 当时有2家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为6.70，对应+6.20%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.64%EV -11.30%E -7.69%K -24.04%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.74%EV +6.20%E +0.925%K +1.09%G +0.067%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -7.14%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 15:55
1xBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.15%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.64I 15.06%NM 14.32%EV +5.24%E +0.790%K +0.930%G +0.049%4.04I 24.75%NM 23.54%EV -3.81%E -0.943%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-15 15:59
Pinnacle🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.89%EV -3.46%E -2.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.14%EV -5.48%E -1.38%K -1.84%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-15 15:55
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-15 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.47%E -4.18%K -11.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-15 15:55
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 15:45
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-15 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.33%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-15 15:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 15:59
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 15:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-15 15:59
SportsBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.29%EV -8.28%E -5.45%K -15.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 15:50
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.49%E -6.33%K -18.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 15:56
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.80%EV -9.49%E -6.33%K -18.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.20%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 15:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.61%EV -9.49%E -6.33%K -18.98%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -4.90%E -0.817%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.71%E -2.86%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-15 15:45
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.90%EV -6.47%E -4.18%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.74%EV -8.07%E -1.39%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -14.29%E -3.97%K -5.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-15 15:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.59%EV -3.46%E -2.16%K -5.76%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -8.86%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-15 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -6.47%E -4.18%K -11.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -8.86%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 15:55
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.30%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -8.86%E -1.54%K -1.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.66%EV -7.14%E -1.83%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-15 15:55
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.66%E -2.95%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 15:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -4.66%E -2.95%K -8.04%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.82%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-15 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -11.24%E -2.01%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 15:55
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -5.27%E -3.35%K -9.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -12.82%E -2.33%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-15 15:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.00%EV -8.28%E -5.45%K -15.93%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.21%EV -15.99%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.80%EV -4.76%E -1.19%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-15 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.15%EV -7.08%E -4.59%K -13.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -15.99%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-15 15:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.15%EV -7.08%E -4.59%K -13.10%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.19%EV -15.99%E -3.02%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -8.33%E -2.16%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-15 15:55
Grosvenor🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.03%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -16.79%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 15:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.03%EV -7.68%E -5.02%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -16.79%E -3.20%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -9.52%E -2.51%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 15:55
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.98%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.76%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%0.5%2026-09-15 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.54%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-09-15 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.54%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-09-15 15:55