The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Frosinone v Juve Stabia

Kickoff: 2026-08-16 16:05 UTC

Final: Frosinone 4–1 Juve Stabia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frosinone (Local)

Prediction 65.99%1.52fair odd
EV -4.97%
Edge -3.45%
Kelly -11.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.83%65.79%65.93%67.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.401.4473.53%71.13%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juve Stabia (Visit)

Prediction 13.29%7.52fair odd
EV +0.639%
Edge +0.084%
Kelly +0.097%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 7.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.46%13.48%13.37%15.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.837.007.5716.67%14.64%14.29%13.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.71%4.83fair odd
EV -1.62%
Edge -0.340%
Kelly -0.431%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.72%20.73%20.70%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.504.504.7523.81%22.23%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frosinone (Local): 65.99%; Juve Stabia (Visit): 13.29%; Draw: 20.71%. For Juve Stabia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.52. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.57, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.639%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.09%EV -5.63%E -3.94%K -13.09%G +0.000%7.57I 13.21%NM 12.67%EV +0.639%E +0.084%K +0.097%G +0.001%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.24%EV -1.82%E -0.385%K -0.488%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-16 16:00
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -0.292%E -0.039%K -0.045%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.80%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-16 16:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.29%EV -5.63%E -3.94%K -13.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.17%EV -2.65%E -0.564%K -0.717%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-16 16:04
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.54%EV -4.97%E -3.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.80%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 15:44
Unibet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -6.29%E -4.43%K -14.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -2.65%E -0.564%K -0.717%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 15:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -6.29%E -4.43%K -14.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -2.65%E -0.564%K -0.717%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 15:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -6.29%E -4.43%K -14.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -2.65%E -0.564%K -0.717%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 15:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -6.29%E -4.43%K -14.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -2.65%E -0.564%K -0.717%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 15:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.45%EV -6.29%E -4.43%K -14.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.08%EV -2.65%E -0.564%K -0.717%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-16 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -6.29%E -4.43%K -14.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.72%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-16 15:59
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -1.62%E -0.340%K -0.431%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-16 15:55
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.18%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -6.80%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-16 15:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.32%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 15:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.32%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 15:50
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.65%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -10.32%E -2.38%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-16 15:50
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.50%EV -8.93%E -6.47%K -23.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -6.80%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-16 15:54
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -13.01%E -3.10%K -4.07%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-16 16:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -10.25%E -7.54%K -28.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.80%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-16 15:54
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -10.25%E -7.54%K -28.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -8.87%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 15:50
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -10.25%E -7.54%K -28.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -6.94%E -0.991%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -8.87%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-16 15:48
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.45%EV -5.63%E -3.94%K -13.09%G +0.000%6.92I 14.45%NM 13.52%EV -8.00%E -1.16%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.03%EV -7.83%E -1.76%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-16 15:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.61%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.51%EV -9.60%E -1.41%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -8.87%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-16 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -4.97%E -3.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -13.59%E -2.09%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.72%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-16 15:35
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -4.97%E -3.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -13.59%E -2.09%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -4.72%E -1.03%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-16 15:40
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -13.59%E -2.09%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -6.80%E -1.51%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-16 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -8.93%E -6.47%K -23.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -14.92%E -2.33%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -8.87%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 15:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -8.93%E -6.47%K -23.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -14.92%E -2.33%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -8.87%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 15:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.39%EV -8.93%E -6.47%K -23.50%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.10%EV -14.92%E -2.33%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -8.87%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 15:54
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.20%EV -4.97%E -3.45%K -11.29%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.79%EV -16.91%E -2.71%K -3.22%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -8.87%E -2.02%K -2.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-16 15:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.98%EV -6.95%E -4.93%K -16.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.04%EV -20.23%E -3.37%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.98%EV -10.94%E -2.54%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-16 16:00
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -7.61%E -5.44%K -19.02%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -20.23%E -3.37%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -13.01%E -3.10%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-16 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 67.17%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.71%0.6%2026-08-16 16:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.48I 67.57%NM 66.87%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.06%1.0%2026-08-16 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.32%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.07%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.62%1.1%2026-08-16 16:00