The School of Odds
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Arezzo v Brescia

2026-08-09 17:45 UTC — Coppa Italia

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arezzo (Local)

Prediction 42.71%2.34fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.72%42.63%42.78%46.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.102.152.2550.76%47.61%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brescia (Visit)

Prediction 28.01%3.57fair odd
EV +6.44%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +2.30%
Growth +0.148%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.18%28.08%27.87%29.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.473.403.8032.26%28.84%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.27%3.42fair odd
EV -0.469%
Edge -0.138%
Kelly -0.195%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.50%29.30%29.35%30.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.153.4033.33%31.47%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Arezzo (Local): 42.71%; Brescia (Visit): 28.01%; Draw: 29.27%. For Brescia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. 9 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.80, producing a positive expected value of +6.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.52%EV -15.42%E -7.79%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 23:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.52%EV -15.42%E -7.79%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 23:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.52%EV -15.42%E -7.79%K -15.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 23:25
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -15.85%E -8.05%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 23:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -15.85%E -8.05%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 23:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -15.85%E -8.05%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 23:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -15.85%E -8.05%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 23:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -15.85%E -8.05%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 23:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.65%EV -15.85%E -8.05%K -16.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV +6.44%E +1.70%K +2.30%G +0.148%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.17%EV -7.79%E -2.47%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 23:25
Pinnacle🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.90%EV -5.60%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -0.560%E -0.158%K -0.220%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.39%EV -8.67%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-09 01:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.96%E -0.560%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 23:24
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -1.96%E -0.560%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -10.30%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -1.96%E -0.560%K -0.784%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 23:23
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -10.30%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -0.469%E -0.138%K -0.195%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 23:25
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-09 01:15
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.21%EV -11.15%E -5.36%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.05%EV -4.76%E -1.40%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.74%EV -6.32%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 23:24
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 23:25
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 23:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 23:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.18%E -4.06%K -6.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 23:24
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -10.30%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -7.56%E -2.29%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -9.25%E -2.98%K -4.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 23:24
Codere (IT)🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.74%EV -5.60%E -2.53%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -8.96%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.20%EV -1.93%E -0.577%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 23:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.67%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -8.96%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.45%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 23:25
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.54%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.96%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.32%EV -8.67%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 00:43
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.54%EV -8.16%E -3.80%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -8.96%E -2.76%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.32%EV -8.67%E -2.78%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-09 00:44
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -3.89%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -10.36%E -3.24%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -3.89%E -1.73%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -10.36%E -3.24%K -4.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 23:25
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.03%E -2.74%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -13.17%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.32%E -1.98%K -2.87%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 23:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -10.30%E -4.90%K -9.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -13.17%E -4.25%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -3.40%E -1.03%K -1.48%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 23:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 39.64%2.00I 50.00%NM 30.33%2.02I 49.50%NM 30.03%64.9%2026-08-09 01:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.53I 65.36%NM 39.64%2.00I 50.00%NM 30.33%2.02I 49.50%NM 30.03%64.9%2026-08-09 01:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 39.99%2.00I 50.00%NM 29.39%1.92I 52.08%NM 30.62%70.1%2026-08-08 23:25