The School of Odds
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Arezzo v Brescia

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:49 UTC

Final: Arezzo 2–0 Brescia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Arezzo (Local)

Prediction 43.48%2.30fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -1.97%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%43.60%43.51%45.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.102.102.2049.02%47.60%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Brescia (Visit)

Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.420%
Kelly +0.576%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%27.24%27.50%28.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.503.503.7031.25%28.61%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.07%3.44fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.06%29.16%29.00%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.103.3033.33%31.81%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arezzo (Local): 43.48%; Brescia (Visit): 27.45%; Draw: 29.07%. For Brescia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.64. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
Grosvenor🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.26%EV -11.29%E -5.54%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV +1.56%E +0.420%K +0.576%G +0.009%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.78%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-09 17:30
Pinnacle🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.05%EV -6.08%E -2.81%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.93%EV +0.732%E +0.199%K +0.274%G +0.002%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.02%EV -7.85%E -2.48%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-09 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.65%EV -8.68%E -4.14%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -1.19%E -0.330%K -0.458%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.30%EV -6.98%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 17:25
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-09 17:25
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -8.68%E -4.14%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-09 17:30
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -10.86%E -5.30%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-09 16:49
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.15%EV -9.55%E -4.59%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 17:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -10.86%E -5.30%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -3.93%E -1.12%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 17:35
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -4.34%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -6.68%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-09 17:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.56%EV -5.64%E -2.60%K -4.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -6.68%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.68%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.07%E -1.23%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 17:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -6.68%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -6.98%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 17:40
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -10.86%E -5.30%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -6.68%E -1.96%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -6.98%E -2.18%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-09 17:24
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.42%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 17:44
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.42%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 17:44
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.42%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -9.89%E -3.19%K -4.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-09 17:40
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.42%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 17:20
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.42%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 17:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.42%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.51%E -3.03%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.42%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.79%E -4.26%K -6.40%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-09 17:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.68%E -4.14%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -12.17%E -3.80%K -5.53%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.53%E -1.70%K -2.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-09 17:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%0.9%2026-08-09 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%0.9%2026-08-09 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.99%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.93%1.3%2026-08-09 17:40