Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Volos FC v Aris Thessaloniki

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 16:29 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

44%

27%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Volos FC (Local)

Prediction 43.74%2.29fair odd

EV -5.97%

Edge -2.78%

Kelly -5.19%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

42.64%43.74%43.74%49.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.951.952.1555.56%51.30%51.28%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aris Thessaloniki (Visit)

Prediction 26.65%3.75fair odd

EV +6.62%

Edge +1.65%

Kelly +2.21%

Growth +0.146%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.23%26.65%26.65%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.303.703.804.0030.30%27.03%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.61%3.38fair odd

EV +0.673%

Edge +0.198%

Kelly +0.280%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.33%29.61%29.61%29.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.103.253.353.4032.26%30.77%29.85%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Volos FC (Local): 43.74%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visit): 26.65%; Draw: 29.61%. For Aris Thessaloniki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
TABtouch🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -17.78%E -9.46%K -20.20%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV +6.62%E +1.65%K +2.21%G +0.146%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV +0.673%E +0.198%K +0.280%G +0.002%	7.6%	2026-08-27 17:30
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.88%EV -14.72%E -7.55%K -15.49%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV +2.62%E +0.681%K +0.920%G +0.024%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -0.808%E -0.241%K -0.344%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-29 16:10
Svenska Spel🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.88%EV -14.72%E -7.55%K -15.49%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV +2.62%E +0.681%K +0.920%G +0.024%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -0.808%E -0.241%K -0.344%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-29 16:10
ATG (SE)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.88%EV -14.72%E -7.55%K -15.49%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.25%EV +2.62%E +0.681%K +0.920%G +0.024%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.87%EV -0.808%E -0.241%K -0.344%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-29 16:10
Unibet🎯	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.60%EV -14.28%E -7.28%K -14.87%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV +1.29%E +0.339%K +0.460%G +0.006%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.85%EV -0.808%E -0.241%K -0.344%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-08-29 16:25
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.73%EV -14.72%E -7.55%K -15.49%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV +1.29%E +0.339%K +0.460%G +0.006%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -0.808%E -0.241%K -0.344%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-29 16:25
Casumo🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.73%EV -14.72%E -7.55%K -15.49%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV +1.29%E +0.339%K +0.460%G +0.006%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -0.808%E -0.241%K -0.344%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-29 16:25
Grosvenor🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.73%EV -14.72%E -7.55%K -15.49%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.49%EV +1.29%E +0.339%K +0.460%G +0.006%	3.35I 29.85%NM 27.78%EV -0.808%E -0.241%K -0.344%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-08-29 16:25
Tipico (DE)🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.34%E -5.04%K -9.85%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-08-29 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 47.46%EV -18.65%E -10.03%K -21.69%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-08-29 16:10
Virgin Bet🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 47.46%EV -18.65%E -10.03%K -21.69%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 24.52%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%	13.3%	2026-08-29 16:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 47.59%EV -19.09%E -10.32%K -22.46%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 24.46%EV -4.04%E -1.12%K -1.55%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 27.95%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-08-29 16:10
1xBet🎯	2.13I 46.95%NM 43.93%EV -6.84%E -3.21%K -6.06%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -5.38%E -1.51%K -2.11%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 29.71%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-08-29 16:25
PMU (FR)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 47.73%EV -21.28%E -11.82%K -26.60%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -6.71%E -1.92%K -2.68%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%	16.4%	2026-08-29 16:25
Betway🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -5.97%E -2.78%K -5.19%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -12.04%E -3.65%K -5.23%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -8.21%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-08-29 16:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.