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Olympiakos Piraeus v AEL
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus (Local)
Prediction 85.91%1.16fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -3.38%
Kelly -31.53%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.12
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.81%85.90%85.69%87.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.091.081.1299.01%92.06%92.59%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
AEL (Visit)
Prediction 4.05%24.68fair odd
EV +26.01%
Edge +0.836%
Kelly +0.864%
Growth +0.225%
assuming max odds 31.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.08%4.07%4.12%5.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
15.0020.9320.5031.106.67%4.78%4.88%3.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 10.04%9.96fair odd
EV +10.45%
Edge +0.950%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.109%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.57%10.03%10.19%13.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.358.698.1311.0015.75%11.50%12.31%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Olympiakos Piraeus (Local): 85.91%; AEL (Visit): 4.05%; Draw: 10.04%. For AEL (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 24.68. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 31.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +26.01%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.99%EV -6.36%E -5.84%K -70.67%G +0.000% | 31.10I 3.22%NM 3.08%EV +26.01%E +0.836%K +0.864%G +0.225% | 10.74I 9.31%NM 8.93%EV +7.84%E +0.730%K +0.805%G +0.063% | 4.3% | 2026-03-22 16:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.32%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +17.50%E +0.604%K +0.625%G +0.109% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV +0.406%E +0.041%K +0.045%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.32%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +17.50%E +0.604%K +0.625%G +0.109% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV +0.406%E +0.041%K +0.045%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.32%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.25%EV +17.50%E +0.604%K +0.625%G +0.109% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV +0.406%E +0.041%K +0.045%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 86.89%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV +17.50%E +0.604%K +0.625%G +0.109% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.88%EV -4.61%E -0.486%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.89%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 28.00I 3.57%NM 3.32%EV +13.45%E +0.480%K +0.498%G +0.067% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV -4.61%E -0.486%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 16:53 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.38%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.63%EV +5.35%E +0.206%K +0.214%G +0.011% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.99%EV +5.43%E +0.517%K +0.571%G +0.031% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.34%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV +5.35%E +0.206%K +0.214%G +0.011% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.04%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.67%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV +5.35%E +0.206%K +0.214%G +0.011% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.76%EV -4.61%E -0.486%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.20%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.97%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.56%EV +5.35%E +0.206%K +0.214%G +0.011% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.24%EV +0.406%E +0.041%K +0.045%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.11%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.50%EV +5.35%E +0.206%K +0.214%G +0.011% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 86.15%EV -11.52%E -11.18%K -383.84%G +0.000% | 26.00I 3.85%NM 3.41%EV +5.35%E +0.206%K +0.214%G +0.011% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.44%EV -14.65%E -1.72%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.22%EV -6.36%E -5.84%K -70.67%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV -6.81%E -0.296%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +10.45%E +0.950%K +1.04%G +0.109% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.33%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.10%EV -6.81%E -0.296%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.45%E +0.950%K +1.04%G +0.109% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.33%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 4.10%EV -6.81%E -0.296%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.57%EV +10.45%E +0.950%K +1.04%G +0.109% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.81%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -6.81%E -0.296%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -9.63%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.49%EV -9.80%E -9.33%K -195.94%G +0.000% | 23.00I 4.35%NM 3.95%EV -6.81%E -0.296%K -0.309%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -4.61%E -0.486%K -0.543%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.16%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 22.50I 4.44%NM 4.24%EV -8.83%E -0.393%K -0.411%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.60%EV -9.63%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.89%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -10.86%E -0.494%K -0.517%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.94%EV -7.12%E -0.770%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.89%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 4.18%EV -10.86%E -0.494%K -0.517%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 9.94%EV -7.12%E -0.770%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 85.59%EV -13.23%E -13.10%K -1323.33%G +0.000% | 22.00I 4.55%NM 3.93%EV -10.86%E -0.494%K -0.517%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 10.48%EV -17.17%E -2.08%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.26%EV -4.64%E -4.18%K -42.20%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.51%EV -14.91%E -0.710%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.23%EV -7.12%E -0.770%K -0.864%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.37%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.39%EV -14.91%E -0.710%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -9.63%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.48%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV -14.91%E -0.710%K -0.746%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -9.63%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.10%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.54%EV -18.96%E -0.948%K -0.998%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.35%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 84.30%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.97%G +0.000% | 19.75I 5.06%NM 4.52%EV -19.98%E -1.01%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-22 16:51 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.43%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -27.07%E -1.50%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -3.78%E -3.38%K -31.53%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.18%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.18%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.18%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.18%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.44%EV -19.68%E -2.46%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.49%EV -7.22%E -6.68%K -90.25%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.37%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.14%EV -9.63%E -1.07%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.55%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -24.70%E -3.29%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 83.21%EV -9.80%E -9.33%K -195.94%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.14%EV -31.12%E -1.83%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.65%EV -24.70%E -3.29%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 14.5% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.28%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV -35.17%E -2.20%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -24.70%E -3.29%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.28%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV -35.17%E -2.20%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -24.70%E -3.29%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.28%EV -5.50%E -5.00%K -55.02%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV -35.17%E -2.20%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -24.70%E -3.29%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 82.41%EV -6.36%E -5.84%K -70.67%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.61%EV -35.17%E -2.20%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.98%EV -24.70%E -3.29%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-22 16:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 80.81%EV -8.08%E -7.55%K -115.41%G +0.000% | 15.50I 6.45%NM 5.58%EV -37.20%E -2.40%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 13.62%EV -36.24%E -5.71%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 82.82%EV -8.94%E -8.43%K -148.97%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 5.85%EV -39.22%E -2.61%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.33%EV -22.19%E -2.86%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-22 16:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.27% | 40.00I 2.50%NM 2.48% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.15% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.60% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25% | 1.1% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 89.15% | 38.00I 2.63%NM 2.60% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.25% | 1.1% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 88.24% | 33.33I 3.00%NM 2.94% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.82% | 2.1% | 2026-03-22 16:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.92% | 38.02I 2.63%NM 2.57% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.51% | 2.2% | 2026-03-22 16:55 |