The School of Odds
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Iraklis FC v Atromitos Athens

2026-09-12 18:00 UTC — Super League - Greece

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Iraklis FC (Local)

Prediction 33.45%2.99fair odd
EV -6.35%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.08%33.45%33.49%33.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.712.752.8038.46%36.89%36.36%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atromitos Athens (Visit)

Prediction 36.80%2.72fair odd
EV -6.53%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -4.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.46%36.80%36.81%37.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.502.5443.48%40.65%40.00%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.76%3.36fair odd
EV -7.76%
Edge -2.50%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.81%29.76%29.71%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.053.083.1034.48%32.80%32.52%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Iraklis FC (Local): 33.45%; Atromitos Athens (Visit): 36.80%; Draw: 29.76%. For Iraklis FC (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.80, with an expected value of -6.35%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -6.35%E -2.27%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 18:05
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.33%EV -7.02%E -2.53%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.77%EV -7.27%E -2.88%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.89%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 16:10
Suprabets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.46%EV -6.53%E -2.57%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 16:18
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 16:08
FanDuel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 16:12
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.00%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -7.76%E -2.50%K -3.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-02 18:15
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.02%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.46%EV -7.27%E -2.88%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-02 16:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 36.80%EV -9.48%E -3.85%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 16:15
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -9.84%E -4.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -10.73%E -3.58%K -5.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-02 16:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.80%EV -13.04%E -5.02%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -13.52%E -5.76%K -10.02%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.81%EV -9.24%E -3.03%K -4.51%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-02 16:10
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.46%EV -13.04%E -5.02%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.55%EV -12.42%E -5.22%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.00%EV -13.71%E -4.73%K -7.21%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-02 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.14%EV -13.04%E -5.02%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.46%EV -15.36%E -6.68%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 29.40%EV -12.81%E -4.37%K -6.64%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-02 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 33.42%2.34I 42.74%NM 36.85%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.73%16.0%2026-09-02 18:05