Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Iraklis FC v Atromitos Athens

Inicio: 2026-09-12 18:00 UTC

Final: Iraklis FC 1–1 Atromitos Athens

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Iraklis FC (Local)

Predicción 31.87%3.14momio equitativo
EV -1.53%
Ventaja -0.495%
Kelly -0.732%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.09

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.18%31.93%31.78%33.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.862.883.0937.04%35.00%34.72%32.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Atromitos Athens (Visitante)

Predicción 37.55%2.66momio equitativo
EV -0.113%
Ventaja -0.043%
Kelly -0.068%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.66

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.77%37.47%37.74%39.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.222.412.402.6645.05%41.48%41.67%37.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 30.58%3.27momio equitativo
EV -1.22%
Ventaja -0.378%
Kelly -0.548%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.86%30.61%30.48%32.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.773.053.053.2336.10%32.83%32.79%30.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Iraklis FC (Local): 31.87%; Atromitos Athens (Visitante): 37.55%; Empate: 30.58%. Para Atromitos Athens (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.663. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.660, con un valor esperado de -0.113%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 31.18%EV -1.53%E -0.495%K -0.732%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.49%EV -0.864%E -0.327%K -0.527%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.33%EV -8.87%E -2.98%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-12 17:40
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -4.40%E -1.47%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-12 15:16
BetOnline.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.40%E -1.47%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.37%EV -3.12%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -4.40%E -1.47%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.37%EV -3.12%E -1.21%K -1.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 17:31
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -5.99%E -2.03%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -2.14%E -0.669%K -0.973%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 16:36
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.26%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.50%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.24%EV -2.14%E -0.669%K -0.973%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-08 01:50
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:46
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:46
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.32%EV -8.75%E -3.60%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.56%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-12 17:45
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.06%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.95%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 14:51
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.12%E -2.45%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 16:06
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:56
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:56
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -7.58%E -2.62%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-12 17:56
Coolbet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.04%EV -8.22%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.77%EV -0.113%E -0.043%K -0.068%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-12 14:21
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -8.22%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.94%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.79%EV -4.59%E -1.47%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:19
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -8.22%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.94%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.79%EV -4.59%E -1.47%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-12 17:19
Betsson🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.05%EV -8.22%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.68%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.27%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-12 14:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.22%E -2.85%K -4.37%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 15:15
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 32.71%EV -8.86%E -3.10%K -4.76%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.34%EV -8.37%E -3.43%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.96%EV -1.22%E -0.378%K -0.548%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 17:50
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.34%EV -9.18%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.40%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.26%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 17:55
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -9.18%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.00%E -3.26%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-12 14:55
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.18%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 15:15
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.18%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 17:56
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.19%EV -9.18%E -3.22%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -5.20%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-12 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.46%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.68%EV -11.75%E -5.00%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.86%EV -3.67%E -1.16%K -1.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 14:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 14:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -9.88%E -4.12%K -7.05%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -6.73%E -2.21%K -3.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-12 15:15
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -10.63%E -4.47%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 15:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.16%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -10.63%E -4.47%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.01%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-12 17:45
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 16:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 16:36
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 16:36
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-12 16:36
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.04%EV -10.63%E -4.47%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.48%EV -14.37%E -5.13%K -7.98%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-12 14:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.36%EV -10.77%E -3.85%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.56%EV -16.64%E -7.49%K -13.64%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 29.08%EV -7.64%E -2.53%K -3.78%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-12 17:33
Tipico (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -12.36%E -4.50%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -4.24%E -1.66%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 17:46
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.24%EV -12.36%E -4.50%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.21%EV -12.88%E -5.55%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.55%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-12 17:46
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.24%EV -12.36%E -4.50%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.21%EV -12.88%E -5.55%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.55%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-12 17:46
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.24%EV -12.36%E -4.50%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 38.21%EV -12.88%E -5.55%K -9.76%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.55%EV -8.26%E -2.75%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-12 17:46
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.97%EV -12.36%E -4.50%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.23%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -9.79%E -3.32%K -5.02%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-12 17:36
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 31.44%EV -13.32%E -4.90%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 37.68%EV -14.76%E -6.50%K -11.62%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 30.88%EV -15.29%E -5.52%K -8.64%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-12 16:30
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.21%EV -13.96%E -5.17%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -13.63%E -5.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.99%EV -11.31%E -3.90%K -5.95%G +0.000%15.0%2026-09-12 15:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%1.9%2026-09-12 17:26
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.16%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.66%1.9%2026-09-12 17:25
Smarkets◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.66%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.17%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.17%1.9%2026-09-12 17:20
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.38%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.23%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.38%2.1%2026-09-12 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.00%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.99%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.01%2.4%2026-09-12 17:56