Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atromitos Athens v Kalamata FC

Inicio: 2026-09-06 16:00 UTC

Final: Atromitos Athens 1–1 Kalamata FC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Atromitos Athens (Local)

Predicción 49.21%2.03momio equitativo
EV -4.05%
Ventaja -2.08%
Kelly -4.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.00%49.27%49.20%51.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.711.851.851.9558.48%53.94%54.05%51.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kalamata FC (Visitante)

Predicción 23.65%4.23momio equitativo
EV -0.673%
Ventaja -0.160%
Kelly -0.210%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.87%23.60%23.68%24.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.893.904.2027.78%25.67%25.64%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.14%3.68momio equitativo
EV -2.28%
Ventaja -0.634%
Kelly -0.878%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.09%27.14%27.12%28.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.383.403.6032.26%29.63%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Atromitos Athens (Local): 49.21%; Kalamata FC (Visitante): 23.65%; Empate: 27.14%. Para Kalamata FC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.23. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.20, con un valor esperado de -0.673%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.37%EV -4.05%E -2.08%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.88%EV -6.59%E -1.67%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.52%EV -4.54%E -2.34%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 15:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.52%EV -4.54%E -2.34%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 15:55
BetUS🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.52%EV -4.54%E -2.34%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.52%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-06 15:55
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.26%EV -4.54%E -2.34%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.83%EV -10.84%E -2.88%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.90%EV -5.54%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 15:55
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.83%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.01%EV -1.15%E -0.274%K -0.361%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.17%EV -3.91%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-06 15:50
BetMGM🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.18%EV -5.03%E -2.61%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -10.13%E -2.67%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 15:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.01%E -3.15%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 15:55
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.01%E -3.15%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 15:55
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -6.01%E -3.15%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 15:55
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.01%E -3.15%K -6.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-06 15:55
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -6.51%E -3.42%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -2.28%E -0.634%K -0.878%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-06 15:45
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.68%EV -6.51%E -3.42%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.71%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -9.07%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-06 15:55
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -6.51%E -3.42%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-06 15:55
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.30%EV -7.00%E -3.70%K -7.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 15:45
Bovada🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.68%EV -7.49%E -3.98%K -8.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -11.32%E -3.02%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-06 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -7.98%E -4.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
Suprabets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.53%EV -7.98%E -4.27%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.32%EV -7.98%E -2.35%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 15:46
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.14%EV -8.48%E -4.56%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -11.32%E -3.02%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -6.35%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 15:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:35
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.51%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -3.04%E -0.741%K -0.980%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 15:30
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-06 15:50
Bet Right🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.58%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -8.95%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -6.35%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-06 15:45
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 10:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 10:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 10:35
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.31%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.86%E -4.13%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -11.78%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.86%E -4.13%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -11.78%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.86%E -4.13%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -11.78%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.00%EV -8.97%E -4.85%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -14.86%E -4.13%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.33%EV -11.78%E -3.63%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.37%EV -9.46%E -5.14%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -10.13%E -2.67%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.70%EV -9.46%E -5.14%K -11.26%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -13.68%E -3.75%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -9.07%E -2.71%K -3.86%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-06 15:55
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.95%E -5.44%K -11.99%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -5.40%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-06 15:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -9.95%E -5.44%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -7.77%E -1.99%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -9.95%E -5.44%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -10.13%E -2.67%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-06 15:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -10.44%E -5.74%K -12.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.13%E -2.67%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 15:45
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -11.43%E -6.35%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.86%E -4.13%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -7.71%E -2.27%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-06 15:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.80%EV -11.43%E -6.35%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.74%EV -12.50%E -3.38%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.45%EV -13.14%E -4.11%K -5.97%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 15:55
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.06%EV -11.43%E -6.35%K -14.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.03%EV -14.86%E -4.13%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.91%EV -15.85%E -5.11%K -7.55%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-06 15:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.88%EV -11.92%E -6.66%K -15.09%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.31%EV -9.42%E -2.46%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.81%EV -9.61%E -2.89%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -12.90%E -7.29%K -16.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -0.673%E -0.160%K -0.210%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.00%E -1.43%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-06 15:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.24%EV -13.40%E -7.61%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -8.95%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 15:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.24%EV -13.40%E -7.61%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -8.95%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 15:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.24%EV -13.40%E -7.61%K -17.63%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -8.95%E -2.32%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-06 15:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.43%EV -14.87%E -8.60%K -20.37%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.43%EV -13.68%E -3.75%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.15%EV -14.50%E -4.60%K -6.74%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-06 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.09%EV -15.86%E -9.27%K -22.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.15%EV -12.50%E -3.38%K -4.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -13.14%E -4.11%K -5.97%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-06 15:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-09-06 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-09-06 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-09-06 15:55
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.51%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.76%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-09-06 15:55
Smarkets◎2.00I 50.00%NM 48.08%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.87%4.0%2026-09-06 15:55