The School of Odds

AEK Athens v Iraklis FC

2026-08-22 15:00 UTC — Super League - Greece

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

AEK Athens (Local)

Prediction 79.33%1.26fair odd
EV -6.39%
Edge -5.41%
Kelly -35.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.00%79.33%79.33%79.49%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.131.161.151.1888%87%87%85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Iraklis FC (Visit)

Prediction 6.21%16.09fair odd
EV -6.78%
Edge -0.452%
Kelly -0.485%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.20%6.21%6.21%8.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
10.5013.9314.0015.0010%7%7%7%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 14.45%6.92fair odd
EV -6.06%
Edge -0.932%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.05%14.45%14.45%15.75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
5.506.196.406.5018%16%16%15%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betsson1.18I 84.75%NM 79.17%EV -6.39%E -5.41%K -35.49%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -6.78%E -0.452%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.50%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 14:25
NordicBet1.18I 84.75%NM 79.17%EV -6.39%E -5.41%K -35.49%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.23%EV -6.78%E -0.452%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.50%E -1.17%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-21 14:25
FanDuel1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -7.18%E -6.14%K -42.24%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -6.78%E -0.452%K -0.485%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -6.06%E -0.932%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 14:25
SportsBet1.15I 86.96%NM 79.42%EV -8.77%E -7.62%K -58.45%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.52%EV -13.00%E -0.929%K -1.000%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.05%EV -6.06%E -0.932%K -1.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-21 14:25
Paddy Power1.14I 87.72%NM 78.65%EV -9.56%E -8.39%K -68.29%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.40%EV -13.00%E -0.929%K -1.000%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.94%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-21 17:44
Sky Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 76.00%EV -9.56%E -8.39%K -68.29%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.25%EV -34.75%E -3.31%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -20.51%E -3.73%K -4.56%G +0.000%15.4%2026-07-21 14:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -10.35%E -9.16%K -79.65%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.36%EV -13.00%E -0.929%K -1.000%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.84%EV -13.28%E -2.21%K -2.66%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-21 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-21 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-21 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-21 14:25