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AEK Athens v Iraklis FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AEK Athens (Local)
Prediction 78.38%1.28fair odd
EV -5.94%
Edge -4.95%
Kelly -29.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.70%78.07%78.51%79.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.171.181.2091.74%85.25%84.75%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iraklis FC (Visit)
Prediction 6.99%14.30fair odd
EV +4.88%
Edge +0.325%
Kelly +0.348%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.17%7.20%6.94%9.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5013.0913.0015.0010.53%7.64%7.69%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 14.62%6.84fair odd
EV +1.78%
Edge +0.256%
Kelly +0.299%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 6.96
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.75%14.73%14.55%16.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.166.206.9618.18%16.24%16.13%14.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AEK Athens (Local): 78.38%; Iraklis FC (Visit): 6.99%; Draw: 14.62%. For Iraklis FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.30. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.88%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -4.95%E -0.761%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-22 10:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -4.95%E -0.761%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-22 10:08 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -4.95%E -0.761%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-22 05:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -4.95%E -0.761%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-22 05:04 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 14:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 15:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.41%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.17%EV +4.88%E +0.325%K +0.348%G +0.017% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 14:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.73%EV -5.94%E -4.95%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 14.66I 6.82%NM 6.53%EV +2.50%E +0.170%K +0.183%G +0.005% | 6.96I 14.37%NM 13.75%EV +1.78%E +0.256%K +0.299%G +0.005% | 4.5% | 2026-08-22 15:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 78.98%EV -9.86%E -8.57%K -65.72%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49%EV -2.12%E -0.151%K -0.163%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.53%EV -8.60%E -1.38%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-22 13:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.24%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 13.34I 7.50%NM 6.92%EV -6.73%E -0.504%K -0.545%G +0.000% | 6.22I 16.08%NM 14.84%EV -9.04%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-22 08:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -5.94%E -4.95%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -9.11%E -0.701%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.95%E -0.761%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 04:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.06%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -9.11%E -0.701%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.86%EV -9.33%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-22 08:34 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.39%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -9.11%E -0.701%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.56%EV -7.87%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-21 10:14 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -9.11%E -0.701%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-21 10:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -9.11%E -0.701%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-21 10:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.30%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -9.11%E -0.701%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.66%EV -8.60%E -1.38%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-21 17:11 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 78.27%EV -10.64%E -9.33%K -76.01%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -9.11%E -0.701%K -0.759%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-08-22 14:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 78.81%EV -14.56%E -13.36%K -161.79%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 6.87%EV -12.60%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.32%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-08-22 08:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.71%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.54%EV -16.10%E -1.34%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.74%EV -15.91%E -2.77%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-08-22 14:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.41%EV -5.94%E -4.95%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.08%EV -19.59%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -6.41%E -1.00%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-22 05:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.41%EV -5.94%E -4.95%K -29.69%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.08%EV -19.59%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.51%EV -6.41%E -1.00%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-22 05:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 77.49%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.88%EV -19.59%E -1.70%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 14.62%EV -9.33%E -1.51%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-21 11:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.84%EV -8.29%E -7.09%K -48.77%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -23.09%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -12.26%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-22 13:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 76.28%EV -10.64%E -9.33%K -76.01%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 7.91%EV -23.09%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.81%EV -19.57%E -3.56%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 15.0% | 2026-08-22 13:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 75.52%EV -6.72%E -5.65%K -35.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.99%EV -30.08%E -3.01%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.49%EV -15.18%E -2.62%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-17 21:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.70%EV -7.51%E -6.36%K -41.70%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -33.58%E -3.53%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.03%EV -19.57%E -3.56%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 13.5% | 2026-08-17 21:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.40% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.68% | 1.5% | 2026-08-22 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.40% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.68% | 1.5% | 2026-08-22 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.40% | 20.00I 5.00%NM 4.92% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.68% | 1.5% | 2026-08-22 14:20 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.25% | 17.99I 5.56%NM 5.46% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.29% | 1.7% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |