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AEK Athens v Aris Thessaloniki

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AEK Athens (Local)

Prediction 79.01%1.27fair odd
EV -5.19%
Edge -4.32%
Kelly -25.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.30%79.01%79.01%80.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.161.171.2090.09%86.16%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aris Thessaloniki (Visit)

Prediction 7.28%13.73fair odd
EV +9.25%
Edge +0.617%
Kelly +0.661%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.13%7.28%7.28%8.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0012.3012.0015.009.09%8.13%8.33%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.71%7.30fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -0.578%
Kelly -0.674%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.15%13.71%13.71%14.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.286.257.0016.67%15.92%16.00%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AEK Athens (Local): 79.01%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visit): 7.28%; Draw: 13.71%. For Aris Thessaloniki (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.73. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.26%EV -6.77%E -5.74%K -37.61%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +9.25%E +0.617%K +0.661%G +0.061%6.45I 15.50%NM 14.50%EV -11.58%E -1.80%K -2.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 15:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -9.93%E -8.71%K -70.93%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV +9.25%E +0.617%K +0.661%G +0.061%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -4.04%E -0.578%K -0.674%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 15:19
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:14
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:14
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:14
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:14
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:15
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:14
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:14
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -7.56%E -6.46%K -44.47%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -14.32%E -2.29%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-21 20:14
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.01%EV -9.93%E -8.71%K -70.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -16.38%E -2.69%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-19 23:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.01%EV -9.93%E -8.71%K -70.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -16.38%E -2.69%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-19 23:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.01%EV -9.93%E -8.71%K -70.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.41%EV -12.60%E -1.05%K -1.15%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -16.38%E -2.69%K -3.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-19 23:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 78.03%EV -12.30%E -11.08%K -111.82%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.53%EV -16.24%E -1.41%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.44%EV -17.75%E -2.96%K -3.55%G +0.000%15.5%2026-08-21 20:15
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.30%EV -5.19%E -4.32%K -25.95%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -19.88%E -1.81%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -10.90%E -1.68%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-22 05:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.