Language:English
Waldhof Mannheim v Erzgebirge Aue
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Waldhof Mannheim (Local)
Prediction 43.17%2.32fair odd
EV -4.17%
Edge -1.88%
Kelly -3.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.22
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.24%43.29%43.13%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.082.102.2252.36%48.00%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Erzgebirge Aue (Visit)
Prediction 31.02%3.22fair odd
EV -0.741%
Edge -0.232%
Kelly -0.337%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.85%31.09%31.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.953.2036.36%34.10%33.90%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.81%3.87fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.571%
Kelly -0.775%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.65%25.85%25.78%27.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.513.603.7933.33%28.49%27.78%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waldhof Mannheim (Local): 43.17%; Erzgebirge Aue (Visit): 31.02%; Draw: 25.81%. For Erzgebirge Aue (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.22. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -0.741%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.09%EV -4.17%E -1.88%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.06%EV -4.46%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 12:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.09%EV -4.17%E -1.88%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.06%EV -4.46%E -1.45%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 42.53%EV -6.33%E -2.92%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -10.05%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 12:19 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.12%EV -6.76%E -3.13%K -5.83%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.74%EV -3.84%E -1.24%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.14%EV -2.16%E -0.571%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 12:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.13%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.56%E -2.54%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.13%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.12%EV -7.56%E -2.54%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.76%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.19%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.07%EV -8.05%E -3.78%K -7.13%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.09%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.84%EV -8.36%E -2.35%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -3.20%E -0.852%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -10.05%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-21 12:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.26%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.79%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-21 12:33 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.05%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-03-21 12:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.05%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-21 12:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.05%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -10.05%E -3.46%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-21 12:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-21 12:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-21 12:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -9.35%E -4.45%K -8.50%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -13.15%E -4.70%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.03%EV -10.21%E -4.91%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.53%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -10.21%E -4.91%K -9.46%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 25.47%EV -7.84%E -2.20%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.92%EV -10.64%E -5.14%K -9.95%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.82%EV -8.50%E -2.88%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-21 12:25 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -11.51%E -5.61%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -0.741%E -0.232%K -0.337%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.49%E -1.21%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 12:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -13.67%E -6.83%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -6.94%E -2.31%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.65%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-21 12:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.29%EV -13.67%E -6.83%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 30.06%EV -10.67%E -3.70%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.64%EV -16.10%E -4.95%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-03-21 12:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -15.82%E -8.12%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 29.93%EV -10.98%E -3.82%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.03%EV -14.81%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-03-21 12:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 43.81%EV -15.82%E -8.12%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 31.06%EV -14.70%E -5.35%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -12.23%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-03-21 12:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 43.10%EV -16.69%E -8.65%K -17.94%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 30.25%EV -14.70%E -5.35%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 26.66%EV -19.46%E -6.24%K -9.18%G +0.000% | 20.2% | 2026-03-21 12:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 42.90%EV -17.55%E -9.19%K -19.29%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 29.79%EV -14.70%E -5.35%K -8.40%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 27.31%EV -22.56%E -7.52%K -11.28%G +0.000% | 22.1% | 2026-03-21 12:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.18% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.45% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.37% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.18% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.45% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.37% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 12:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.18% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.45% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.37% | 1.1% | 2026-03-21 12:40 |