The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfB Stuttgart II v TSG Hoffenheim II

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

38 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart II (Local)

Prediction 37.07%2.70fair odd
EV +1.93%
Edge +0.702%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.98%37.04%37.05%40.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.232.412.452.7544.84%41.43%40.82%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)

Prediction 38.23%2.62fair odd
EV +3.22%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.66%38.43%38.21%42.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.422.382.7047.62%41.26%42.11%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.71%4.05fair odd
EV +5.00%
Edge +1.18%
Kelly +1.54%
Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%24.53%24.74%27.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.623.554.2533.33%27.65%28.17%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart II (Local): 37.07%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 38.23%; Draw: 24.71%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.05. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (38 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.05%EV +1.93%E +0.702%K +1.10%G +0.021%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.27%EV -12.84%E -5.63%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV +5.00%E +1.18%K +1.54%G +0.077%3.8%2026-03-15 12:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.05%EV +1.93%E +0.702%K +1.10%G +0.021%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.27%EV -12.84%E -5.63%K -10.03%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.68%EV +5.00%E +1.18%K +1.54%G +0.077%3.8%2026-03-15 12:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -4.88%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 12:25
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.93%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -4.88%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-15 12:25
theScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.19%EV -12.90%E -5.49%K -9.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.19%EV -10.16%E -4.33%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.62%EV -6.12%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-15 12:25
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.39%EV -2.52%E -0.988%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.36%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-15 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.69%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 12:25
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -7.34%E -2.93%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -7.35%E -1.96%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-15 12:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -5.48%E -2.15%K -3.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.34%E -2.59%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.42%EV -14.01%E -6.04%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.86%EV -2.52%E -0.988%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-15 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.88%EV -7.34%E -2.93%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -13.99%E -6.22%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -8.59%E -2.32%K -3.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-15 12:25
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.87%EV -3.63%E -1.40%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.29%EV -13.99%E -6.22%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.84%EV -9.82%E -2.69%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-15 12:25
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -7.34%E -2.93%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -8.25%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 12:25
LeoVegas🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.89%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.78%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-15 12:05
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-15 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-15 12:25
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-15 12:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.42%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.08%E -5.25%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.79%EV -11.06%E -3.07%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-15 12:25
Suprabets🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 36.51%EV -7.71%E -3.09%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -8.25%E -3.44%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
Casumo🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
Grosvenor🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
Unibet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
TABtouch🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.75%EV -17.34%E -7.78%K -14.10%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV +3.22%E +1.19%K +1.89%G +0.061%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 12:10
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.81%EV -3.63%E -1.40%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.70%EV -12.84%E -5.63%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -12.29%E -3.46%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-15 12:25
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -7.34%E -2.93%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -13.99%E -6.22%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 12:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -7.34%E -2.93%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -13.99%E -6.22%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 12:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -7.34%E -2.93%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -13.99%E -6.22%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 12:25
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.54%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.58%EV -15.90%E -7.23%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-15 12:25
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.88%EV -11.78%E -4.95%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.72%EV -17.81%E -8.28%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.40%EV -13.53%E -3.87%K -5.41%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-15 12:25
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.28%EV -9.19%E -3.75%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.29%EV -15.90%E -7.23%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.42%EV -16.00%E -4.71%K -6.67%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-15 12:25
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.03%EV -11.78%E -4.95%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 39.70%EV -19.72%E -9.39%K -17.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.27%EV -18.47%E -5.60%K -8.03%G +0.000%19.9%2026-03-15 12:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 33.98%EV -11.04%E -4.60%K -7.89%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 38.83%EV -19.72%E -9.39%K -17.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.18%EV -25.88%E -8.63%K -12.94%G +0.000%22.6%2026-03-15 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 35.89%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16%0.9%2026-03-15 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 34.81%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%1.9%2026-03-15 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 34.81%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.25%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.94%1.9%2026-03-15 12:25