The School of Odds
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VfB Stuttgart II v Jahn Regensburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart II (Local)

Prediction 42.56%2.35fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.93%42.65%42.53%43.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.142.142.2650.00%46.71%46.73%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jahn Regensburg (Visit)

Prediction 32.15%3.11fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%32.13%32.15%33.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.803.0038.46%35.83%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.29%3.95fair odd
EV -2.65%
Edge -0.689%
Kelly -0.931%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.39%25.22%25.32%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.593.653.8533.33%27.85%27.40%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart II (Local): 42.56%; Jahn Regensburg (Visit): 32.15%; Draw: 25.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -2.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.59%EV -3.81%E -1.69%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.08%EV -3.54%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV -3.92%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 14:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.59%EV -3.81%E -1.69%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.08%EV -3.54%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.33%EV -3.92%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-04 14:20
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -5.18%E -1.38%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 14:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.16%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -8.97%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-04 14:20
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -8.36%E -2.93%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -8.97%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 14:09
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.36%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.93%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-04 14:16
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 14:14
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 14:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -6.37%E -2.89%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.35%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-04 14:14
Pinnacle🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.50%EV -6.79%E -3.10%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76%EV -3.54%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.74%EV -2.65%E -0.689%K -0.931%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 14:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.30%EV -7.64%E -3.52%K -6.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.36%E -2.93%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.97%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 14:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.54%E -1.18%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.10%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -8.36%E -2.93%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -3.92%E -1.03%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:20
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.43%EV -8.50%E -3.95%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.58%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-04 14:00
TABtouch🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Grosvenor🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 42.54%EV -8.92%E -4.17%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -7.71%E -2.11%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:00
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -9.77%E -4.61%K -8.73%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -8.36%E -2.93%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.24%E -2.88%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 14:20
Suprabets🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 43.09%EV -10.20%E -4.83%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 31.79%EV -8.04%E -2.81%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.12%EV -8.47%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-04 14:21
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -10.62%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.36%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -6.44%E -1.74%K -2.39%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-04 14:20
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.62%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.54%EV -11.57%E -4.21%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.85%EV -8.97%E -2.49%K -3.45%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 14:20
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.62%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.62%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.62%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.97%E -3.56%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 14:25
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.39%EV -10.62%E -5.06%K -9.66%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.05%EV -15.43%E -5.87%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.56%EV -14.03%E -4.13%K -5.85%G +0.000%15.1%2026-04-04 14:09
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.23%EV -12.75%E -6.22%K -12.14%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.04%EV -15.75%E -6.01%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.73%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%15.5%2026-04-04 14:09
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.83%EV -14.88%E -7.44%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.70%EV -15.75%E -6.01%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.47%EV -11.50%E -3.29%K -4.60%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 14:20
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.77%EV -14.88%E -7.44%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.13%EV -16.40%E -6.31%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.10%EV -19.09%E -5.96%K -8.68%G +0.000%19.7%2026-04-04 14:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.05%EV -14.88%E -7.44%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 31.58%EV -16.40%E -6.31%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.37%EV -24.14%E -8.05%K -12.07%G +0.000%21.8%2026-04-04 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.46%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.68%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.86%1.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.77%2.2%2026-04-04 14:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.67%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.56%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.77%2.2%2026-04-04 14:20