The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfB Stuttgart II v FC Energie Cottbus

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart II (Local)

Prediction 38.49%2.60fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -0.946%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.62%38.53%38.46%39.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.372.402.5646.51%42.19%41.67%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Energie Cottbus (Visit)

Prediction 35.60%2.81fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.53%35.58%35.68%36.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.522.502.7042.02%39.61%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV -2.81%
Edge -0.749%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.76%25.89%25.86%26.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.543.603.7531.25%28.28%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart II (Local): 38.49%; FC Energie Cottbus (Visit): 35.60%; Draw: 25.92%. For VfB Stuttgart II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.56, with an expected value of -1.48%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.62%EV -1.48%E -0.577%K -0.946%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.35%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-03 17:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.62%EV -1.48%E -0.577%K -0.946%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.35%EV -5.67%E -2.14%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.03%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-03 17:35
Pinnacle🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.80%EV -5.32%E -2.16%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.75%EV -4.96%E -1.86%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-03 17:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -3.89%E -1.44%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.45%E -2.86%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-03 10:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -9.23%E -3.62%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-03 10:45
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.09%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.86%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.05%EV -5.40%E -1.48%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-03 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.96%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.73%EV -11.72%E -4.73%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:25
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.63%E -3.18%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -11.01%E -4.40%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-03 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 38.31%EV -8.02%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.90%EV -9.23%E -3.62%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-03 10:45
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.40%E -3.53%K -6.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -7.45%E -2.86%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 17:41
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -9.56%E -4.07%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -7.45%E -2.86%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -2.81%E -0.749%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 17:45
Suprabets🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.65%EV -9.56%E -4.07%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.05%EV -10.30%E -4.09%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 25.30%EV -6.96%E -1.94%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:42
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -9.56%E -4.07%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -9.23%E -3.62%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-03 17:40
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.43%EV -9.56%E -4.07%K -7.08%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -11.01%E -4.40%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.44%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-03 17:45
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -9.23%E -3.62%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-03 17:45
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.05%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.54%EV -7.45%E -2.86%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.41%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-03 17:45
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -11.01%E -4.40%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-03 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -11.01%E -4.40%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-03 17:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.21%EV -11.48%E -4.99%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.16%EV -11.01%E -4.40%K -7.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.63%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-03 17:40
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.46%EV -13.41%E -5.96%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.32%EV -12.79%E -5.22%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.22%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-03 17:45
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 38.59%EV -15.33%E -6.97%K -12.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.68%EV -15.28%E -6.42%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.73%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%17.8%2026-03-03 14:05
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 38.83%EV -17.26%E -8.03%K -15.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.08%EV -15.28%E -6.42%K -11.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.09%EV -17.06%E -5.33%K -7.76%G +0.000%19.8%2026-03-03 17:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.97%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.91%0.2%2026-03-03 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.97%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.12%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.91%0.2%2026-03-03 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.83%2.84I 35.21%NM 35.00%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.16%0.6%2026-03-03 17:50