The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TSG Hoffenheim II v Rot-Weiss Essen

Kickoff: 2026-03-07 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 32.94%3.04fair odd
EV -4.46%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.91%32.91%33.00%35.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.762.802.9041.67%36.27%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rot-Weiss Essen (Visit)

Prediction 42.17%2.37fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.54%42.17%42.08%43.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.172.2550.00%46.56%46.08%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.88%4.02fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.668%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.73%24.92%24.91%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.613.603.9433.33%27.72%27.78%25.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 32.94%; Rot-Weiss Essen (Visit): 42.17%; Draw: 24.88%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.94, with an expected value of -1.96%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.98%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.50%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.52%EV -2.96%E -0.758%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-07 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.98%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.50%EV -5.11%E -2.27%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.52%EV -2.96%E -0.758%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-07 12:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -4.46%E -1.54%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-07 12:49
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.09%EV -5.12%E -1.78%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.73%EV -5.95%E -2.67%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.18%EV -1.96%E -0.498%K -0.668%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-07 12:50
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -6.11%E -2.14%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-07 12:34
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-07 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -4.20%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-07 12:50
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-07 12:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -8.06%E -3.70%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -9.18%E -2.51%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-07 12:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:24
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:24
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:24
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:25
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.06%EV -8.48%E -3.91%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-07 12:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 12:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 12:34
Neds🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 12:34
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 12:34
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 12:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 12:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -7.76%E -2.77%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-07 12:30
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.52%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.90%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-07 12:50
Suprabets🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -9.40%E -3.42%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.32%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.59%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-07 12:46
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.59%EV -11.05%E -4.09%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.22%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-03-07 12:49
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -11.05%E -4.09%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -9.33%E -4.34%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-07 12:50
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -12.70%E -4.79%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -7.22%E -3.28%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -9.18%E -2.51%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-07 12:49
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.83%EV -13.69%E -5.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.21%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.96%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%12.8%2026-03-07 12:50
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 32.92%EV -13.69%E -5.22%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.12%EV -15.65%E -7.83%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.96%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%15.9%2026-03-07 12:50
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -14.35%E -5.52%K -8.97%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -12.91%E -3.69%K -5.16%G +0.000%14.7%2026-03-07 12:50
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -17.64%E -7.06%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.56%EV -15.65%E -7.83%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -17.89%E -5.42%K -7.78%G +0.000%20.3%2026-03-07 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 32.43%EV -17.64%E -7.06%K -11.76%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 40.54%EV -15.65%E -7.83%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.03%EV -25.35%E -8.45%K -12.68%G +0.000%23.3%2026-03-07 12:49
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.59%EV -20.93%E -8.72%K -14.95%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.68%EV -11.44%E -5.45%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.73%EV -10.42%E -2.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%17.1%2026-03-07 12:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.16%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%1.9%2026-03-07 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.16%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%1.9%2026-03-07 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.16%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.31%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.54%1.9%2026-03-07 12:50