The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SG Sonnenhof Großaspach v SC Verl

Kickoff: 2026-09-15 17:00 UTC

Final: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 1–1 SC Verl

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local)

Prediction 45.38%2.20fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -2.23%
Kelly -4.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.45%45.46%45.26%47.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.992.002.1054.64%50.27%50.00%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Verl (Visit)

Prediction 31.03%3.22fair odd
EV -0.093%
Edge -0.029%
Kelly -0.042%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.23%30.95%30.99%33.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.952.953.2237.04%33.94%33.90%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.59%4.24fair odd
EV -0.928%
Edge -0.221%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%23.59%23.75%24.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.813.804.2028.57%26.27%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local): 45.38%; SC Verl (Visit): 31.03%; Draw: 23.59%. For SC Verl (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.223. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.220, with an expected value of -0.093%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.18%EV -4.69%E -2.23%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -14.68%E -5.34%K -8.39%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.09%EV -0.928%E -0.221%K -0.290%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-15 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.60%EV -5.60%E -2.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -10.64%E -3.70%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-15 16:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.30%EV -6.05%E -2.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.18%EV -11.57%E -4.06%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.52%EV -8.00%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-15 16:40
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.06%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -10.02%E -3.46%K -5.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-15 14:51
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.02%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-15 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.49%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -14.68%E -5.34%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-15 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.49%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -14.68%E -5.34%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-15 16:35
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.49%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -14.68%E -5.34%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-15 16:35
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.49%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -14.68%E -5.34%K -8.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-15 16:35
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -15.08%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-15 16:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -15.08%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-15 16:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -6.96%E -3.40%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -15.08%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-15 16:45
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.62%EV -7.42%E -3.64%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.54%EV -0.093%E -0.029%K -0.042%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.84%EV -5.88%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-15 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.42%E -3.64%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.82%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.42%E -3.64%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -6.82%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-15 16:45
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -8.32%E -4.12%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.18%E -2.39%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-15 14:40
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -8.32%E -4.12%K -8.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.18%E -2.39%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-15 14:40
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -9.23%E -4.62%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-15 16:50
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.60%EV -9.23%E -4.62%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.40%EV -6.92%E -2.31%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-15 16:40
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -9.23%E -4.62%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -6.92%E -2.31%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-15 16:45
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -9.23%E -4.62%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 14:55
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.16%EV -9.23%E -4.62%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -13.12%E -4.69%K -7.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 14:55
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.84%EV -9.23%E -4.62%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -10.02%E -3.46%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-15 16:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -10.14%E -5.12%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 16:35
Unibet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -10.14%E -5.12%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 16:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -10.14%E -5.12%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 16:35
Grosvenor🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 16:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 16:35
Casumo🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 16:35
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 16:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV -3.82%E -1.23%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-15 16:35
Suprabets🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.16%EV -10.59%E -5.38%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 29.72%EV -5.06%E -1.65%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.12%EV -11.07%E -2.94%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-15 16:45
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.11%EV -11.05%E -5.64%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 29.73%EV -5.68%E -1.87%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.16%EV -11.78%E -3.15%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-15 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.96%EV -11.50%E -5.90%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.23%EV -0.714%E -0.223%K -0.325%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -3.29%E -0.802%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-15 16:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.03%EV -13.32%E -6.97%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.94%EV -6.92%E -2.31%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.03%EV -8.00%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-15 16:45
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -13.32%E -6.97%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -6.92%E -2.31%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-15 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.22%EV -13.32%E -6.97%K -14.63%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -8.47%E -2.87%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.86%EV -12.72%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-15 16:35
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.58%EV -13.32%E -6.97%K -14.63%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.23%EV -10.64%E -3.70%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.18%EV -15.08%E -4.19%K -5.80%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-15 16:45
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 46.66%EV -14.68%E -7.81%K -16.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.25%EV -10.02%E -3.46%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -10.36%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-15 16:45
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 45.17%EV -16.04%E -8.67%K -18.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.95%EV -16.23%E -6.01%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -17.44%E -4.98%K -6.98%G +0.000%19.7%2026-09-15 16:49
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 45.17%EV -16.04%E -8.67%K -18.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.95%EV -16.23%E -6.01%K -9.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -17.44%E -4.98%K -6.98%G +0.000%19.7%2026-09-15 16:50
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.83%EV -16.95%E -9.26%K -20.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.74%EV -16.23%E -6.01%K -9.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.43%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-15 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.50%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.98%1.2%2026-09-15 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.50%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.98%1.2%2026-09-15 16:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.06I 48.54%NM 47.76%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.37%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.88%1.7%2026-09-15 16:50