The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Jahn Regensburg v TSG Hoffenheim II

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 12:00 UTC

Final: Jahn Regensburg 2–1 TSG Hoffenheim II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jahn Regensburg (Local)

Prediction 48.24%2.07fair odd
EV -1.58%
Edge -0.775%
Kelly -1.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.93%48.76%47.81%53.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.881.882.0459.88%53.28%53.19%49.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)

Prediction 28.56%3.50fair odd
EV +9.95%
Edge +2.58%
Kelly +3.49%
Growth +0.347%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.44%28.12%28.90%30.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.233.203.8535.71%30.93%31.25%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.20%4.31fair odd
EV -0.254%
Edge -0.059%
Kelly -0.077%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.78%23.12%23.29%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.783.754.3031.25%26.44%26.67%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jahn Regensburg (Local): 48.24%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 28.56%; Draw: 23.20%. For TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.16%EV -14.61%E -8.25%K -18.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV +9.95%E +2.58%K +3.49%G +0.347%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.57%E -0.613%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 11:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.91%EV -14.61%E -8.25%K -18.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV +5.67%E +1.53%K +2.10%G +0.119%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.78%EV -0.254%E -0.059%K -0.077%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 11:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.90%EV -12.68%E -7.00%K -15.65%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV +4.24%E +1.16%K +1.60%G +0.068%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -2.57%E -0.613%K -0.804%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-02 11:54
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.71%EV -15.57%E -8.90%K -20.76%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV +4.24%E +1.16%K +1.60%G +0.068%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -10.69%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-02 11:55
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -14.61%E -8.25%K -18.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -0.044%E -0.013%K -0.018%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -2.57%E -0.613%K -0.804%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-02 11:55
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.33%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.55%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:56
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:56
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
TABtouch🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.16%EV -9.30%E -4.95%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.33%E -1.29%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -15.33%E -4.20%K -5.79%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.83%EV -8.34%E -4.39%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.55%EV -7.18%E -2.21%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.63%EV -4.89%E -1.19%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-02 11:56
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.75%EV -1.58%E -0.775%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.71%EV -8.33%E -2.59%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.55%EV -6.05%E -1.49%K -1.98%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-02 11:35
Coolbet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-02 11:56
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -7.21%E -1.80%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-02 11:56
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 50.99%EV -19.43%E -11.64%K -29.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.61%EV -8.61%E -2.69%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.41%EV -11.85%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%17.4%2026-05-02 11:55
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.56%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.84%EV -10.04%E -3.19%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -10.69%E -2.78%K -3.75%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-02 11:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.34%EV -3.51%E -1.76%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.90%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -9.53%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 11:54
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.20%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -11.85%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-01 00:00
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 11:56
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 11:56
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.17%E -3.83%K -5.25%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 11:55
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.75%E -5.81%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.85%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 11:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.75%E -5.81%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.85%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 11:56
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.99%EV -10.75%E -5.81%K -12.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.64%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -11.85%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-02 11:55
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.16%EV -17.98%E -10.58%K -25.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.96%EV -11.47%E -3.70%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -18.81%E -5.37%K -7.52%G +0.000%19.7%2026-05-02 11:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.43%EV -2.55%E -1.26%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -12.90%E -4.23%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -13.01%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 04:10
Suprabets🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.76%EV -3.99%E -2.01%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.15%EV -13.75%E -4.55%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.09%EV -12.32%E -3.26%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-02 11:37
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -5.92%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -14.32%E -4.77%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -13.01%E -3.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-30 23:58
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -14.32%E -4.77%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -11.85%E -3.12%K -4.23%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-30 23:59
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.37%EV -7.85%E -4.11%K -8.63%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.88%EV -17.18%E -5.92%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -18.81%E -5.37%K -7.52%G +0.000%15.4%2026-04-30 23:59
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.34%EV -10.27%E -5.52%K -11.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.72%EV -17.18%E -5.92%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.94%EV -16.49%E -4.58%K -6.34%G +0.000%16.0%2026-05-02 09:01
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 44.93%EV -11.71%E -6.40%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.37%EV -20.04%E -7.16%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 25.70%EV -25.77%E -8.05%K -11.71%G +0.000%21.6%2026-05-02 09:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 52.97%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.63%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.39%1.5%2026-05-02 11:56
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.11%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.33%1.8%2026-05-02 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.24%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.27%2.1%2026-05-02 11:56