The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Alemannia Aachen v VfB Stuttgart II

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alemannia Aachen (Local)

Prediction 49.63%2.01fair odd
EV -5.20%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -5.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.70%49.69%49.71%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.841.851.9157.80%54.21%54.05%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart II (Visit)

Prediction 26.00%3.85fair odd
EV +1.40%
Edge +0.359%
Kelly +0.483%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%25.87%25.97%27.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.413.403.9032.26%29.29%29.41%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.37%4.10fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.634%
Kelly -0.846%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%24.44%24.32%26.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.663.654.0032.26%27.36%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alemannia Aachen (Local): 49.63%; VfB Stuttgart II (Visit): 26.00%; Draw: 24.37%. For VfB Stuttgart II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +1.40%E +0.359%K +0.483%G +0.007%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.97%E -1.28%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 11:55
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.93%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.05%EV -4.84%E -1.32%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 24.02%EV -3.27%E -0.823%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 11:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.42%EV -6.69%E -3.56%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 10:35
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.14%EV -8.18%E -4.42%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:29
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -6.40%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -7.41%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-11 10:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.82%EV -7.68%E -4.13%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.11%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.07%EV -6.19%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 10:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.34%EV -7.68%E -4.13%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.70%E -2.17%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 10:40
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -9.17%E -5.01%K -11.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -2.54%E -0.634%K -0.846%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 11:45
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.07%EV -8.63%E -2.30%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 10:30
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 11:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 11:30
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 11:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.00%E -2.57%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-11 11:30
Suprabets🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.38%EV -8.67%E -4.71%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%EV -10.30%E -2.99%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.29%EV -8.87%E -2.37%K -3.24%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-11 11:48
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.92%EV -8.18%E -4.42%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-11 11:55
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.18%E -4.42%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-11 11:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.18%E -4.42%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-11 11:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -8.18%E -4.42%K -9.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-11 11:45
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.98%EV -13.14%E -7.51%K -17.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.72%EV -11.60%E -3.41%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%14.3%2026-04-11 10:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.51%EV -6.69%E -3.56%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.98%EV -12.12%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.51%EV -9.36%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 11:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.51%EV -6.69%E -3.56%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.98%EV -12.12%E -3.59%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.51%EV -9.36%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-11 11:55
LeoVegas🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.93%EV -5.20%E -2.72%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -12.90%E -3.85%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -9.85%E -2.66%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-11 11:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.70%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.83%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.70%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.83%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 11:25
Unibet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.70%EV -5.70%E -3.00%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.83%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-11 11:25
Casumo🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -6.19%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 11:25
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -6.19%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 11:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -6.19%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -6.19%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 11:25
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -6.19%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 11:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -6.19%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.83%EV -6.19%E -3.28%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.07%E -3.03%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-11 11:25
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.25%EV -13.14%E -7.51%K -17.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -14.72%E -4.21%K -5.89%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-11 10:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.02%EV -14.13%E -8.17%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.18%EV -14.20%E -4.30%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.80%EV -24.47%E -7.89%K -11.65%G +0.000%20.4%2026-04-11 10:29
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 48.11%EV -14.13%E -8.17%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.67%EV -18.88%E -6.05%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.22%EV -19.59%E -5.94%K -8.52%G +0.000%20.2%2026-04-11 11:54
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 48.77%EV -13.14%E -7.51%K -17.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.53%EV -19.40%E -6.26%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.71%EV -12.28%E -3.41%K -4.72%G +0.000%17.2%2026-04-11 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-04-11 11:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-04-11 11:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.78%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.07%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.15%1.0%2026-04-11 11:50