The School of Odds
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Alemannia Aachen v Jahn Regensburg

2026-09-12 14:30 UTC — 3. Liga - Germany

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alemannia Aachen (Local)

Prediction 52.69%1.90fair odd
EV -7.80%
Edge -4.46%
Kelly -10.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.69%52.69%52.69%52.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.751.751.7557.14%57.14%57.14%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jahn Regensburg (Visit)

Prediction 24.26%4.12fair odd
EV -7.80%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -2.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.26%24.26%24.26%24.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.803.803.8026.32%26.32%26.32%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.05%4.34fair odd
EV -7.80%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.05%23.05%23.05%23.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.004.004.0025.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Alemannia Aachen (Local): 52.69%; Jahn Regensburg (Visit): 24.26%; Draw: 23.05%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.34. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.00, with an expected value of -7.80%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.69%EV -7.80%E -4.46%K -10.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.26%EV -7.80%E -2.05%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.80%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-31 00:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.