The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05

2026-10-27 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum (Local)

Prediction 20.49%4.88fair odd
EV +2.43%
Edge +0.485%
Kelly +0.607%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.56%20.49%20.49%23.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.003.735.0027.40%25.00%26.85%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 55.65%1.80fair odd
EV +1.84%
Edge +1.01%
Kelly +2.22%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.87%55.65%55.65%59.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.691.681.8364.52%59.29%59.52%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.86%4.19fair odd
EV +2.61%
Edge +0.608%
Kelly +0.792%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.58%23.86%23.86%26.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.543.424.3030.77%28.24%29.20%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: VfL Bochum (Local): 20.49%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 55.65%; Draw: 23.86%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.30, producing a positive expected value of +2.61%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -13.96%E -3.32%K -4.36%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV +1.84%E +1.01%K +2.22%G +0.041%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -14.09%E -3.91%K -5.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.43%EV -23.18%E -6.18%K -8.43%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 51.09%EV -4.28%E -2.49%K -5.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.47%EV -17.67%E -5.12%K -7.21%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 23.69%EV -25.23%E -6.91%K -9.52%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 50.87%EV -5.39%E -3.17%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.44%EV -18.86%E -5.55%K -7.86%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-12 14:19
Unibet (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 22.90%EV -24.20%E -6.54%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.04%EV -7.62%E -4.59%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.07%EV -22.44%E -6.91%K -9.98%G +0.000%18.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 22.90%EV -24.20%E -6.54%K -8.96%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 51.04%EV -7.62%E -4.59%K -11.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.07%EV -22.44%E -6.91%K -9.98%G +0.000%18.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.56%EV +2.43%E +0.485%K +0.607%G +0.015%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.86%EV -13.74%E -8.86%K -24.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV +2.61%E +0.608%K +0.792%G +0.021%7.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (1 combination) +2.14%Tipico (DE) 5.00 (20.4%) / BetMGM 1.83 (55.8%) / Tipico (DE) 4.30 (23.8%)Show details
VfL Bochum (Local)FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE)🎯 5.00 (20.4%)BetMGM🎯 1.83 (55.8%)Tipico (DE)🎯 4.30 (23.8%)+2.14%