Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05

2026-10-27 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum (Local)

Prediction 19.44%5.14fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.574%
Kelly +0.707%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.74%19.33%19.40%20.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.694.755.3023.26%21.33%21.05%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 58.15%1.72fair odd
EV -5.80%
Edge -3.58%
Kelly -9.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.09%58.23%58.08%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.571.581.6268.49%63.56%63.29%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.41%4.46fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -1.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.77%22.44%22.52%23.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.044.104.2025.97%24.78%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: VfL Bochum (Local): 19.44%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 58.15%; Draw: 22.41%. For VfL Bochum (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.14. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.30, producing a positive expected value of +3.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.74%EV +3.04%E +0.574%K +0.707%G +0.022%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.88%EV -8.71%E -5.55%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.38%EV -5.88%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-20 06:35
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -2.79%E -0.558%K -0.698%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -5.80%E -3.58%K -9.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -5.88%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 16:44
Unibet (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.68%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 11:09
Grosvenor🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.68%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 11:15
Unibet (NL)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.68%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 11:21
ATG (SE)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.68%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 11:20
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.68%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 11:25
Svenska Spel🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.41%EV -6.68%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.87%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.72%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-19 15:00
LeoVegas🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -7.65%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.21%EV -6.96%E -4.35%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -5.88%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-20 17:04
888sport🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.65%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -12.60%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.65%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -12.60%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.35%EV -7.65%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.09%EV -6.38%E -3.96%K -10.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.57%EV -12.60%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-10 14:01
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.25%EV -7.65%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.98%EV -9.87%E -6.37%K -17.95%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -5.88%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-21 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.20%EV -7.65%E -1.61%K -2.04%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.83%EV -9.87%E -6.37%K -17.95%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.97%EV -7.00%E -1.69%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-19 17:05
Codere (IT)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.60%EV -8.62%E -1.83%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 57.93%EV -7.54%E -4.75%K -12.79%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-19 00:14
Unibet (UK)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 57.52%EV -8.13%E -5.14%K -14.01%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.72%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-20 20:20
betfred_uk🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.68%EV -8.71%E -5.55%K -15.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 20:20
PMU (FR)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -10.57%E -2.30%K -2.94%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 57.67%EV -9.29%E -5.95%K -16.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -11.48%E -2.91%K -3.89%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-19 11:09
Virgin Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.51%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.57%EV -10.45%E -6.79%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.73%EV -12.60%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-19 10:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.51%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.57%EV -10.45%E -6.79%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.73%EV -12.60%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-19 10:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.70%EV -12.51%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.57%EV -10.45%E -6.79%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.73%EV -12.60%E -3.23%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-19 11:15
Unibet (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.15%EV -12.51%E -2.78%K -3.57%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 59.03%EV -15.10%E -10.35%K -32.83%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.82%EV -11.48%E -2.91%K -3.89%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-21 17:04
Winamax (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.28%EV -14.46%E -3.29%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 57.95%EV -10.45%E -6.79%K -19.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -8.12%E -1.98%K -2.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 23:14
NetBet (FR)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 19.78%EV -14.46%E -3.29%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 57.62%EV -12.20%E -8.08%K -23.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.60%EV -13.72%E -3.56%K -4.81%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-21 11:15
Winamax (FR)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.39%EV -16.40%E -3.81%K -4.97%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.69%EV -11.62%E -7.64%K -22.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.92%EV -10.36%E -2.59%K -3.45%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-22 23:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.