The School of Odds
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VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 17:00 UTC

Final: VfL Bochum 2–0 FSV Mainz 05

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfL Bochum (Local)

Prediction 23.26%4.30fair odd
EV +10.48%
Edge +2.21%
Kelly +2.79%
Growth +0.293%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.89%23.55%23.28%26.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.284.114.004.7530.49%24.30%25.00%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FSV Mainz 05 (Visit)

Prediction 52.84%1.89fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -6.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.09%52.57%52.75%57.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.701.741.8063.69%58.66%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.90%4.18fair odd
EV +0.392%
Edge +0.093%
Kelly +0.123%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.50%23.88%23.97%24.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.913.904.2027.03%25.55%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfL Bochum (Local): 23.26%; FSV Mainz 05 (Visit): 52.84%; Draw: 23.90%. For VfL Bochum (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV +10.48%E +2.21%K +2.79%G +0.293%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.61%EV -13.34%E -8.14%K -20.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV +0.392%E +0.093%K +0.123%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV +10.48%E +2.21%K +2.79%G +0.293%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.61%EV -13.34%E -8.14%K -20.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV +0.392%E +0.093%K +0.123%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-27 16:45
Unibet (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.33%E +0.531%K +0.687%G +0.016%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -11.23%E -6.68%K -16.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.00%E -0.487%K -0.645%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 16:55
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.33%E +0.531%K +0.687%G +0.016%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -11.23%E -6.68%K -16.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.00%E -0.487%K -0.645%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 16:55
Unibet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.31%EV +2.33%E +0.531%K +0.687%G +0.016%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.82%EV -11.23%E -6.68%K -16.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.87%EV -2.00%E -0.487%K -0.645%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-27 16:55
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.34%EV +2.33%E +0.531%K +0.687%G +0.016%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -17.04%E -10.86%K -29.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.66%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.34%EV +2.33%E +0.531%K +0.687%G +0.016%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.00%EV -17.04%E -10.86%K -29.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.66%EV -5.58%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-27 16:45
Pinnacle🎯4.22I 23.70%NM 22.73%EV -1.85%E -0.439%K -0.575%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.29%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.98%EV -4.39%E -1.10%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-27 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -2.32%E -0.552%K -0.724%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.39%E -1.10%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 16:55
Grosvenor🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.56%EV -2.32%E -0.552%K -0.724%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.22%EV -13.34%E -8.14%K -20.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.22%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-27 16:55
PMU (FR)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.49%EV -2.32%E -0.552%K -0.724%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.37%EV -13.87%E -8.51%K -22.02%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.14%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 16:55
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.64%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -6.47%E -3.66%K -8.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -4.39%E -1.10%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-27 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -4.64%E -1.13%K -1.50%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.38%EV -15.46%E -9.66%K -25.76%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -7.97%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-27 16:55
picklebet_au🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 16:50
Unibet (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.31%EV -4.89%E -2.72%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-27 16:50
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -6.47%E -3.66%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -9.17%E -2.41%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-27 16:50
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.56%E -3.12%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.56%E -3.12%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.56%E -3.12%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-27 16:50
betfred_uk🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.63%EV -6.97%E -1.74%K -2.32%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.24%EV -10.17%E -5.98%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -10.36%E -2.76%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-27 16:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.70%EV -8.13%E -2.06%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.30%EV -5.42%E -3.03%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 16:50
LeoVegas🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.56%EV -8.13%E -2.06%K -2.76%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.58%EV -6.47%E -3.66%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -6.78%E -1.74%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-27 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -9.29%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.59%EV -5.95%E -3.34%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -4.39%E -1.10%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 16:45
NetBet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -9.29%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.67%EV -12.82%E -7.77%K -19.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -10.36%E -2.76%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-27 16:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.25%EV -9.29%E -2.38%K -3.20%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 54.92%EV -16.51%E -10.45%K -28.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.83%EV -9.17%E -2.41%K -3.27%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-27 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -13.95%E -3.77%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 52.02%EV -8.06%E -4.63%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -7.97%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-27 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 26.72%EV -23.71%E -7.23%K -10.40%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.09%EV -7.53%E -4.30%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.19%EV -9.65%E -2.55%K -3.47%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-27 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.