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VfB Stuttgart v SC Freiburg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
VfB Stuttgart (Local)
Prediction 57.64%1.73fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.08%57.55%57.48%58.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.611.611.6864.10%62.07%62.11%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SC Freiburg (Visit)
Prediction 20.20%4.95fair odd
EV +3.04%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.741%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.95%20.26%20.30%21.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.734.755.1023.09%21.16%21.05%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.16%4.51fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -0.737%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%22.19%22.23%22.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.144.104.4025.00%24.14%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart (Local): 57.64%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 20.20%; Draw: 22.16%. For SC Freiburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.14%EV -3.17%E -1.89%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.15%EV +3.04%E +0.596%K +0.741%G +0.023% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.71%EV -4.72%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-23 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.14%EV -3.17%E -1.89%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.15%EV +3.04%E +0.596%K +0.741%G +0.023% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.71%EV -4.72%E -1.10%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-23 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.87%EV -6.63%E -4.09%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.46%EV -1.00%E -0.204%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.67%EV -2.50%E -0.569%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 18:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.10%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -1.00%E -0.204%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.10%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -1.00%E -0.204%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.10%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -1.00%E -0.204%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 17:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.10%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.09%EV -1.00%E -0.204%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 17:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -7.78%E -4.86%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -1.00%E -0.204%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.25%EV -7.78%E -4.86%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -1.00%E -0.204%K -0.257%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -9.15%E -2.23%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 18:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.31%EV -10.08%E -6.46%K -18.01%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -3.02%E -0.629%K -0.795%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-23 17:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.31%EV -10.08%E -6.46%K -18.01%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -3.02%E -0.629%K -0.795%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-23 17:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.31%EV -10.08%E -6.46%K -18.01%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -3.02%E -0.629%K -0.795%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-23 17:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.30%EV -6.63%E -4.09%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -4.03%E -0.849%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.81%EV -4.06%E -0.937%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 16:34 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.40%EV -8.93%E -5.65%K -15.40%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -5.04%E -1.07%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.39%EV -6.05%E -3.71%K -9.60%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -7.06%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 17:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -6.63%E -4.09%K -10.69%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -7.06%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 17:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.06%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.06%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.06%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.06%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 18:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.06%EV -7.20%E -4.47%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.97%EV -7.06%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-23 18:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.21%EV -7.78%E -4.86%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -7.06%E -1.54%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-23 13:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.56%EV -5.47%E -3.34%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -9.08%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.46%EV -2.50%E -0.569%K -0.737%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 17:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.74%EV -7.78%E -4.86%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -9.08%E -2.02%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.74%EV -5.83%E -1.37%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 56.99%EV -8.36%E -5.26%K -14.16%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.36%EV -10.09%E -2.27%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -11.37%E -2.84%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-23 18:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.32%EV -7.78%E -4.86%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.84%EV -11.10%E -2.52%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.84%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 17:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.08%EV -3.74%E -2.24%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.63%EV -12.52%E -2.89%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.30%EV -6.94%E -1.65%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.