The School of Odds
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SG Sonnenhof Großaspach v Augsburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 17:00 UTC

Final: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 2–4 Augsburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local)

Prediction 10.28%9.73fair odd
EV +7.96%
Edge +0.758%
Kelly +0.838%
Growth +0.067%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.02%10.46%10.21%13.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.759.479.5010.5014.81%10.56%10.53%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Augsburg (Visit)

Prediction 75.35%1.33fair odd
EV -4.30%
Edge -3.39%
Kelly -15.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.59%75.08%75.41%76.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.221.231.2786.96%81.82%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.36%6.96fair odd
EV +0.552%
Edge +0.079%
Kelly +0.092%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.31%14.46%14.38%15.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.336.507.0016.67%15.80%15.38%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local): 10.28%; Augsburg (Visit): 75.35%; Draw: 14.36%. For SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.73. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +7.96%E +0.758%K +0.838%G +0.067%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -6.56%E -5.29%K -27.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 16:50
Unibet (NL)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +7.96%E +0.758%K +0.838%G +0.067%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -6.56%E -5.29%K -27.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 16:45
ATG (SE)🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +7.96%E +0.758%K +0.838%G +0.067%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -6.56%E -5.29%K -27.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 16:45
Unibet🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +7.96%E +0.758%K +0.838%G +0.067%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -6.56%E -5.29%K -27.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 16:45
Svenska Spel🎯10.50I 9.52%NM 9.02%EV +7.96%E +0.758%K +0.838%G +0.067%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.40%EV -6.56%E -5.29%K -27.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-27 16:45
Unibet (UK)🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV +2.82%E +0.282%K +0.313%G +0.009%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.21%EV -7.32%E -5.95%K -31.81%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.42%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 16:30
picklebet_au🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV +2.82%E +0.282%K +0.313%G +0.009%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -8.07%E -6.61%K -36.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.33%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-27 16:30
betfred_uk🎯10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV +2.82%E +0.282%K +0.313%G +0.009%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.76%EV -9.58%E -7.98%K -47.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-27 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.57%EV +0.763%E +0.078%K +0.087%G +0.001%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.23%EV -7.32%E -5.95%K -31.81%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.21%EV -5.19%E -0.787%K -0.927%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 16:30
BetMGM🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 10.11%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.65%EV -4.30%E -3.39%K -15.93%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV -3.04%E -0.450%K -0.529%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-27 16:42
888sport🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -5.81%E -4.65%K -23.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -5.81%E -4.65%K -23.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.63%EV -5.81%E -4.65%K -23.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-27 16:45
LeoVegas🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.81%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.38%EV -8.07%E -6.61%K -36.68%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -3.04%E -0.450%K -0.529%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-27 16:45
Grosvenor🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.61%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 75.43%EV -8.82%E -7.29%K -42.01%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.96%EV -12.38%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 16:45
PMU (FR)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -9.58%E -7.98%K -47.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-27 16:45
LiveScore Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.55%EV -10.33%E -8.68%K -54.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.46%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 75.55%EV -10.33%E -8.68%K -54.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -2.32%E -0.244%K -0.273%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.71%EV -11.08%E -9.39%K -61.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-27 16:20
Pinnacle🎯9.23I 10.83%NM 10.29%EV -5.10%E -0.552%K -0.619%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 75.35%EV -5.05%E -4.01%K -19.44%G +0.000%6.61I 15.13%NM 14.36%EV -5.05%E -0.764%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 16:55
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.48%EV -7.46%E -0.829%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.45%EV -5.81%E -4.65%K -23.23%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 14.08%EV -3.76%E -0.561%K -0.659%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-27 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.35%EV -7.46%E -0.829%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.35%EV -8.07%E -6.61%K -36.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV +0.552%E +0.079%K +0.092%G +0.001%7.4%2026-10-27 16:30
NetBet (FR)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -7.46%E -0.829%K -0.933%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 75.31%EV -11.08%E -9.39%K -61.57%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.81%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-27 16:50
Unibet (FR)🎯8.80I 11.36%NM 9.88%EV -9.52%E -1.08%K -1.22%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 75.62%EV -13.34%E -11.60%K -88.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.49%EV -13.81%E -2.30%K -2.76%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-27 16:40
Betway🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV -12.60%E -1.48%K -1.68%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.66%EV -5.81%E -4.65%K -23.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -6.63%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-27 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -17.74%E -2.22%K -2.53%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 74.67%EV -10.33%E -8.68%K -54.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.22%EV -10.22%E -1.64%K -1.95%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-27 16:30
Betclic (FR)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.01%EV -30.60%E -4.53%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 72.59%EV -8.82%E -7.29%K -42.01%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.40%EV -12.38%E -2.03%K -2.43%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-27 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.