The School of Odds

SC Verl v Hamburger SV

2026-08-24 16:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

SC Verl (Local)

Prediction 19.13%5.23fair odd
EV -4.34%
Edge -0.867%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.79%19.13%19.21%20.98%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.494.405.0025%22%23%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 59.55%1.68fair odd
EV -6.51%
Edge -4.15%
Kelly -11.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.13%59.55%59.50%59.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.431.511.501.5770%66%67%64%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 21.32%4.69fair odd
EV -6.19%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.03%21.32%21.29%22.06%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.854.124.104.4026%24%24%23%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetMGM5.00I 20.00%NM 18.79%EV -4.34%E -0.867%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.85%EV -6.51%E -4.15%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -6.19%E -1.41%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-05 10:30
Codere (IT)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -8.16%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.09%EV -6.51%E -4.15%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -8.32%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-05 22:04
Tipico (DE)4.80I 20.83%NM 19.28%EV -8.16%E -1.70%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.69%EV -7.70%E -4.97%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.03%EV -6.19%E -1.41%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-11 16:09
LeoVegas4.70I 21.28%NM 19.51%EV -10.08%E -2.14%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.16%EV -7.70%E -4.97%K -14.00%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.33%EV -8.32%E -1.94%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-22 07:35
NetBet (FR)4.40I 22.73%NM 19.26%EV -15.82%E -3.59%K -4.65%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 59.28%EV -14.85%E -10.38%K -34.53%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.46%EV -15.78%E -4.00%K -5.35%G +0.000%18.0%2026-07-22 13:44
Winamax (DE)4.30I 23.26%NM 20.34%EV -17.73%E -4.12%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.32%EV -10.68%E -7.12%K -21.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.34%EV -12.59%E -3.07%K -4.06%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-05 10:30
Betclic (FR)4.30I 23.26%NM 19.75%EV -17.73%E -4.12%K -5.37%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 58.18%EV -13.06%E -8.95%K -28.39%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.06%EV -17.92%E -4.65%K -6.29%G +0.000%17.7%2026-07-07 14:30
Unibet (FR)4.10I 24.39%NM 20.90%EV -21.56%E -5.26%K -6.95%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.13%EV -10.68%E -7.12%K -21.36%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.97%EV -16.85%E -4.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%16.7%2026-07-05 10:30
Winamax (FR)4.00I 25.00%NM 20.98%EV -23.47%E -5.87%K -7.82%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 57.49%EV -13.06%E -8.95%K -28.39%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 21.52%EV -16.85%E -4.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-05 10:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.