Erzgebirge Aue v TSG Hoffenheim

2026-08-22 13:30 UTC — DFB-Pokal

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Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

83%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Erzgebirge Aue (Local)

Prediction 5.96%16.78fair odd

EV +13.25%

Edge +0.697%

Kelly +0.736%

Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.06%5.87%5.96%7.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

10.5014.2815.0019.0010%7%7%5%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 82.78%1.21fair odd

EV -6.46%

Edge -5.72%

Kelly -49.70%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

79.11%82.91%82.78%85.08%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.011.091.091.1399%92%92%88%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 11.26%8.88fair odd

EV +9.80%

Edge +1.01%

Kelly +1.12%

Growth +0.110%

assuming max odds 9.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.86%11.22%11.26%12.90%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

6.507.868.009.7515%13%13%10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Draw ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.06%EV +13.25%E +0.697%K +0.736%G +0.098%	1.13I 88.50%NM 85.08%EV -6.46%E -5.72%K -49.70%G +0.000%	9.75I 10.26%NM 9.86%EV +9.80%E +1.01%K +1.12%G +0.110%	4.0%	2026-06-11 09:40
LeoVegas	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -10.59%E -0.706%K -0.757%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.02%EV -8.12%E -7.31%K -73.79%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.84%EV -4.27%E -0.503%K -0.570%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-07-17 00:20
Codere (IT)	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV -4.63%E -0.289%K -0.309%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.23%EV -8.12%E -7.31%K -73.79%G +0.000%	8.40I 11.90%NM 11.00%EV -5.40%E -0.643%K -0.730%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-07-05 10:30
NetBet (FR)	16.00I 6.25%NM 5.32%EV -4.63%E -0.289%K -0.309%G +0.000%	1.01I 99.01%NM 84.35%EV -16.39%E -16.23%K -1639.46%G +0.000%	8.25I 12.12%NM 10.33%EV -7.09%E -0.859%K -0.978%G +0.000%	17.4%	2026-07-22 13:44
Tipico (DE)	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV -10.59%E -0.706%K -0.757%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.33%EV -7.29%E -6.51%K -60.74%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -9.90%E -1.24%K -1.41%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-06 22:09
Winamax (DE)	11.50I 8.70%NM 7.59%EV -31.45%E -2.74%K -3.00%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 80.78%EV -10.60%E -9.82%K -132.50%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 11.63%EV -15.54%E -2.07%K -2.39%G +0.000%	14.6%	2026-07-05 10:30
Betclic (FR)	13.50I 7.41%NM 6.48%EV -19.53%E -1.45%K -1.56%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 81.02%EV -10.60%E -9.82%K -132.50%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.50%EV -21.17%E -3.02%K -3.53%G +0.000%	14.3%	2026-07-23 13:35
Unibet (FR)	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.26%EV -28.47%E -2.37%K -2.59%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 79.93%EV -9.77%E -8.97%K -108.58%G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71%NM 12.81%EV -23.42%E -3.44%K -4.04%G +0.000%	14.8%	2026-07-23 13:34
Winamax (FR)	10.50I 9.52%NM 7.99%EV -37.41%E -3.56%K -3.94%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 79.11%EV -12.26%E -11.56%K -204.26%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 12.90%EV -26.80%E -4.12%K -4.87%G +0.000%	19.2%	2026-07-05 10:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.