Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Erzgebirge Aue v TSG Hoffenheim

2026-08-22 13:30 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

84%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Erzgebirge Aue (Local)

Prediction 5.53%18.07fair odd

EV +5.14%

Edge +0.271%

Kelly +0.286%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.06%5.53%5.39%7.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

11.5014.7115.0019.008.70%6.80%6.67%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)

Prediction 83.84%1.19fair odd

EV -5.26%

Edge -4.65%

Kelly -40.43%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.60%83.84%84.13%85.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.101.091.1393.46%91.15%91.74%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.62%9.41fair odd

EV +3.56%

Edge +0.366%

Kelly +0.407%

Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 9.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

9.86%10.62%10.48%12.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.258.118.009.7513.79%12.32%12.50%10.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Erzgebirge Aue (Local): 5.53%; TSG Hoffenheim (Visit): 83.84%; Draw: 10.62%. For Erzgebirge Aue (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.07. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 19.00, producing a positive expected value of +5.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	19.00I 5.26%NM 5.06%EV +5.14%E +0.271%K +0.286%G +0.015%	1.13I 88.50%NM 85.08%EV -5.26%E -4.65%K -40.43%G +0.000%	9.75I 10.26%NM 9.86%EV +3.56%E +0.366%K +0.407%G +0.015%	4.0%	2026-06-11 09:40
Betclic (FR)🎯	17.00I 5.88%NM 5.39%EV -5.93%E -0.349%K -0.370%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 84.13%EV -8.61%E -7.90%K -95.66%G +0.000%	8.75I 11.43%NM 10.48%EV -7.06%E -0.807%K -0.911%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-08-14 13:34
Tipico (DE)🎯	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.15%EV -16.99%E -1.13%K -1.21%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 82.33%EV -6.09%E -5.44%K -50.79%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.53%EV -15.02%E -1.88%K -2.15%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-06-06 22:09
LeoVegas🎯	15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -16.99%E -1.13%K -1.21%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 82.59%EV -7.77%E -7.06%K -77.71%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -15.02%E -1.88%K -2.15%G +0.000%	10.1%	2026-08-10 08:35
Unibet (FR)🎯	13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -28.06%E -2.16%K -2.34%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 81.09%EV -8.61%E -7.90%K -95.66%G +0.000%	7.30I 13.70%NM 12.11%EV -22.46%E -3.08%K -3.56%G +0.000%	13.1%	2026-08-10 08:35
Winamax (DE)🎯	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.05%EV -30.83%E -2.47%K -2.68%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 81.58%EV -9.45%E -8.75%K -118.10%G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90%NM 11.37%EV -17.68%E -2.28%K -2.62%G +0.000%	13.5%	2026-08-10 08:35
Winamax (FR)🎯	11.50I 8.70%NM 7.50%EV -36.36%E -3.16%K -3.46%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 80.60%EV -10.29%E -9.61%K -146.95%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 11.90%EV -22.99%E -3.17%K -3.68%G +0.000%	15.9%	2026-07-27 16:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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