The School of OddsErzgebirge Aue v TSG Hoffenheim
Head to Head
Option 1: Erzgebirge Aue (Local)
Odds
10.509.52%Min
14.007.14%Mean
15.006.67%Median
19.005.26%Max
Consensus probabilities
5.06%19.763Min
7.99%12.521Max
5.66%17.667Mean
5.77%17.319Median
5.66%17.667IQM
5.53%18.099Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 19.00 under the IQM model: 5.66%
EV +7.55%Edge +0.397%Kelly +0.419%Growth +0.032%
Option 2: TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)
Odds
1.0694.34%Min
1.1091.03%Mean
1.1190.09%Median
1.1388.50%Max
Consensus probabilities
78.93%1.267Min
85.08%1.175Max
83.54%1.197Mean
83.23%1.202Median
83.54%1.197IQM
83.89%1.192Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.13 under the IQM model: 83.54%
EV -5.59%Edge -4.95%Kelly -43.03%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
6.4015.63%Min
7.8312.77%Mean
8.0012.50%Median
9.7510.26%Max
Consensus probabilities
9.86%10.141Min
13.32%7.508Max
10.79%9.264Mean
11.00%9.093Median
10.79%9.264IQM
10.58%9.448Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 9.75 under the IQM model: 10.79%
EV +5.25%Edge +0.538%Kelly +0.600%Growth +0.031%
Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | Erzgebirge Aue (Local) ▼ | TSG Hoffenheim (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 19.00I 5.26% NM 5.06%EV +7.55% E +0.397% K +0.419% G +0.032% | 1.13I 88.50% NM 85.08%EV -5.59% E -4.95% K -43.03% G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26% NM 9.86%EV +5.25% E +0.538% K +0.600% G +0.031% | 4.0% | 2026-06-11 09:40 |
| Codere (IT) | 16.00I 6.25% NM 5.77%EV -9.43% E -0.590% K -0.629% G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09% NM 83.23%EV -7.27% E -6.55% K -66.05% G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90% NM 11.00%EV -9.32% E -1.11% K -1.26% G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-05 10:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.15%EV -15.09% E -1.01% K -1.08% G +0.000% | 1.12I 89.29% NM 82.33%EV -6.43% E -5.74% K -53.58% G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50% NM 11.53%EV -13.64% E -1.71% K -1.95% G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-06 22:09 |
| LeoVegas | 15.00I 6.67% NM 6.12%EV -15.09% E -1.01% K -1.08% G +0.000% | 1.11I 90.09% NM 82.74%EV -7.27% E -6.55% K -66.05% G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12% NM 11.13%EV -10.94% E -1.33% K -1.51% G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-05 10:30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 11.50I 8.70% NM 7.59%EV -34.91% E -3.04% K -3.32% G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59% NM 80.78%EV -9.77% E -9.05% K -122.14% G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33% NM 11.63%EV -19.04% E -2.54% K -2.93% G +0.000% | 14.6% | 2026-07-05 10:30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 11.00I 9.09% NM 7.75%EV -37.74% E -3.43% K -3.77% G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59% NM 78.93%EV -9.77% E -9.05% K -122.14% G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63% NM 13.32%EV -30.91% E -4.83% K -5.72% G +0.000% | 17.3% | 2026-07-05 10:30 |
| Winamax (FR) | 10.50I 9.52% NM 7.99%EV -40.57% E -3.86% K -4.27% G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34% NM 79.11%EV -11.44% E -10.79% K -190.71% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 12.90%EV -29.83% E -4.59% K -5.42% G +0.000% | 19.2% | 2026-07-05 10:25 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth