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Dynamo Dresden v FC Schalke 04

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 17:02 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 2–0 FC Schalke 04

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Prediction 32.17%3.11fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.51%32.30%32.01%33.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.852.853.0137.74%35.04%35.09%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Schalke 04 (Visit)

Prediction 40.91%2.44fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.754%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.22%40.84%41.02%43.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.242.252.4050.00%44.73%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.92%3.72fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -0.860%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.86%26.86%26.97%27.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.453.453.6030.30%28.95%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 32.17%; FC Schalke 04 (Visit): 40.91%; Draw: 26.92%. For FC Schalke 04 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.40, with an expected value of -1.81%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 32.01%EV -3.17%E -1.05%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.00%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.99%EV -3.90%E -1.09%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-28 16:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.90%E -2.57%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.79%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 16:40
BetMGM🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.90%E -2.57%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.79%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-28 16:29
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.10%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.10%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.10%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.10%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.10%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.10%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-28 16:40
1xBet🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 31.88%EV -5.74%E -1.96%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.97%EV -6.72%E -2.95%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.15%EV -7.40%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 16:35
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.79%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-28 16:35
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.17%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.17%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.71%E -2.31%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.17%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-28 16:35
Grosvenor🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.83%EV -11.22%E -5.17%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.31%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-28 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.60%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.51%EV -11.22%E -5.17%K -9.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -9.83%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-28 16:50
picklebet_au🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -1.81%E -0.754%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.79%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-28 16:30
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.41%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.47%EV -3.04%E -1.28%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.12%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-28 16:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -2.63%E -1.10%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-28 16:29
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -3.85%E -1.64%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-28 16:40
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.78%EV -9.99%E -4.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -11.17%E -3.39%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-28 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.78%EV -12.45%E -5.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-28 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.93%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.78%EV -12.45%E -5.82%K -10.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-28 16:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.84%EV -13.26%E -6.26%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -9.83%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -9.93%E -3.54%K -5.51%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.84%EV -13.26%E -6.26%K -11.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -9.83%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-28 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 31.51%EV -10.57%E -3.80%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.73%EV -16.13%E -7.87%K -15.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.76%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-28 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.67%EV -11.53%E -4.19%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.25%EV -5.90%E -2.57%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -4.44%E -1.25%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-28 16:30
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -11.53%E -4.19%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.95%E -3.53%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -5.79%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-28 16:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.64%EV -11.53%E -4.19%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.50%EV -18.17%E -9.09%K -18.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -5.79%E -1.65%K -2.32%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-28 16:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.51%EV -14.75%E -5.57%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.37%EV -9.99%E -4.54%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.12%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-28 16:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-10-28 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-10-28 16:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.92%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.13%1.0%2026-10-28 16:50