Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden v FC Schalke 04

2026-10-28 17:00 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Prediction 26.42%3.79fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%26.38%26.42%27.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.393.403.6031.75%29.52%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Schalke 04 (Visit)

Prediction 48.50%2.06fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -5.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.66%48.75%48.50%50.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.861.881.9557.80%53.69%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.08%3.99fair odd
EV +0.304%
Edge +0.076%
Kelly +0.101%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.23%24.86%25.08%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.603.544.0028.57%27.76%28.25%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 26.42%; FC Schalke 04 (Visit): 48.50%; Draw: 25.08%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.304%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -10.27%E -5.55%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV +0.304%E +0.076%K +0.101%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-10 13:59
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -4.89%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -5.42%E -2.78%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.97%E -1.59%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 15:40
picklebet_au🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.36%E -3.85%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.22%E -1.95%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-14 07:35
LeoVegas🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.17%E -2.99%K -4.24%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.66%EV -6.87%E -3.58%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -9.73%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-12 15:09
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.56%EV -15.46%E -4.83%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.94%EV -10.75%E -5.84%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.50%EV -9.73%E -2.70%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-10 14:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -11.49%E -3.43%K -4.89%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.47%EV -10.75%E -5.84%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.91%EV -10.23%E -2.86%K -3.96%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-13 17:04
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.36%E -3.85%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.23%E -3.50%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.36%E -3.85%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.23%E -3.50%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.53%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -7.36%E -3.85%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.23%E -3.50%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-10 14:01
NetBet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.34%EV -12.81%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 48.83%EV -13.66%E -7.68%K -17.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.83%EV -12.23%E -3.50%K -4.89%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-15 20:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.40%EV -16.78%E -5.33%K -7.80%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 47.95%EV -12.69%E -7.05%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.66%EV -12.23%E -3.50%K -4.89%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-10 14:01
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 26.27%EV -14.14%E -4.35%K -6.28%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 49.34%EV -16.09%E -9.30%K -22.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.39%EV -12.23%E -3.50%K -4.89%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-13 17:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.