Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

2026-10-28 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

71%

12%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borussia Dortmund (Local)

Prediction 71.49%1.40fair odd

EV -7.07%

Edge -5.44%

Kelly -23.56%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

71.49%71.49%71.49%71.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.301.301.3076.92%76.92%76.92%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Werder Bremen (Visit)

Prediction 11.62%8.61fair odd

EV -7.07%

Edge -0.883%

Kelly -1.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.62%11.62%11.62%11.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.008.008.008.0012.50%12.50%12.50%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.90%5.92fair odd

EV -7.07%

Edge -1.28%

Kelly -1.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.90%16.90%16.90%16.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.505.505.505.5018.18%18.18%18.18%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Borussia Dortmund (Local): 71.49%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 11.62%; Draw: 16.90%. For Werder Bremen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.61. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 8.00, with an expected value of -7.07%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.49%EV -7.07%E -5.44%K -23.56%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.62%EV -7.07%E -0.883%K -1.01%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -7.07%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-09-05 23:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.