The School of Odds
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Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

Kickoff: 2026-10-27 19:50 UTC

Final: Borussia Dortmund 3–2 Werder Bremen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borussia Dortmund (Local)

Prediction 71.20%1.40fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -11.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.97%71.17%71.11%73.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.311.301.3580.00%76.22%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Werder Bremen (Visit)

Prediction 12.42%8.05fair odd
EV +5.53%
Edge +0.651%
Kelly +0.738%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.10%12.40%12.50%13.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.297.408.5015.38%13.72%13.51%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.39%6.10fair odd
EV +1.61%
Edge +0.259%
Kelly +0.309%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 6.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.21%16.42%16.39%17.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.535.606.2020.00%18.09%17.86%16.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Borussia Dortmund (Local): 71.20%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 12.42%; Draw: 16.39%. For Werder Bremen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.05. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.69%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.68%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV +5.53%E +0.651%K +0.738%G +0.041%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.21%EV +1.61%E +0.259%K +0.309%G +0.005%6.0%2026-10-27 19:35
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.04%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.50%EV +3.42%E +0.411%K +0.467%G +0.016%5.82I 17.18%NM 16.46%EV -4.62%E -0.794%K -0.959%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-27 19:30
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.02%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.76%EV +1.19%E +0.146%K +0.166%G +0.002%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.21%EV -8.72%E -1.57%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-27 19:40
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -0.674%E -0.084%K -0.096%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-27 19:20
picklebet_au🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.68%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -1.67%E -0.278%K -0.334%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-27 18:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.37%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.37%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 19:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.37%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.37%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.37%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.67%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.96%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-27 18:50
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.10%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -9.86%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-27 19:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.47%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.68%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.34%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-27 19:20
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.74%EV -11.00%E -8.80%K -44.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -6.88%E -0.918%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -9.86%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 19:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.13%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.69%EV -8.12%E -1.10%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.19%EV -4.95%E -0.853%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-27 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.37%EV -3.89%E -2.88%K -11.10%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.10%EV -9.99%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.52%EV -5.77%E -1.00%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-27 19:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 70.68%EV -9.58%E -7.54%K -35.49%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.38%EV -9.99%E -1.38%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.94%EV -13.14%E -2.48%K -3.06%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-27 19:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.99%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.39%EV -13.09%E -1.87%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -1.67%E -0.278%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-27 18:50
LeoVegas🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.05%EV -5.31%E -3.99%K -16.09%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.31%EV -13.09%E -1.87%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.64%EV -8.23%E -1.47%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-27 19:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 70.43%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.88%EV -13.09%E -1.87%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -11.50%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-27 19:25
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -13.09%E -1.87%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 19:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -13.09%E -1.87%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -13.09%E -1.87%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -18.06%E -3.61%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-27 19:05
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.11%EV -6.02%E -4.56%K -18.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -16.19%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -13.96%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-27 19:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.43%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.37%EV -16.19%E -2.40%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.19%EV -13.96%E -2.66%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-27 19:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.19%EV -8.16%E -6.32%K -28.13%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.93%EV -19.30%E -2.97%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.88%EV -6.59%E -1.16%K -1.40%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-27 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.97%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -19.30%E -2.97%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.24%EV -14.78%E -2.84%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 19:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.97%EV -7.45%E -5.73%K -24.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.79%EV -19.30%E -2.97%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.24%EV -14.78%E -2.84%K -3.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-27 19:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 69.30%EV -8.87%E -6.93%K -31.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -19.30%E -2.97%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.06%EV -14.78%E -2.84%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-27 19:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.