Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

2026-10-27 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

72%

11%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borussia Dortmund (Local)

Prediction 71.78%1.39fair odd

EV -4.53%

Edge -3.41%

Kelly -13.73%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.73%71.78%71.78%72.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.281.281.3380.00%78.04%78.13%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Werder Bremen (Visit)

Prediction 11.19%8.94fair odd

EV -4.90%

Edge -0.577%

Kelly -0.653%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.89%11.19%11.19%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.257.166.608.5016.00%13.97%15.15%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.03%5.87fair odd

EV -6.34%

Edge -1.15%

Kelly -1.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.82%17.03%17.03%19.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.404.954.905.5022.73%20.20%20.41%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Borussia Dortmund (Local): 71.78%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 11.19%; Draw: 17.03%. For Borussia Dortmund (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.33, with an expected value of -4.53%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.53%E -3.41%K -13.73%G +0.000%	8.25I 12.12%NM 11.49%EV -7.70%E -0.933%K -1.06%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.24%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-12 14:20
LeoVegas🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 70.10%EV -5.97%E -4.55%K -19.24%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.24%EV -16.09%E -2.15%K -2.48%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -11.45%E -2.20%K -2.73%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-09-12 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -8.12%E -6.34%K -29.00%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -4.90%E -0.577%K -0.653%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -6.34%E -1.15%K -1.41%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-09-19 15:05
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 68.58%EV -8.12%E -6.34%K -29.00%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.51%EV -27.28%E -4.20%K -4.96%G +0.000%	4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -16.55%E -3.38%K -4.24%G +0.000%	13.9%	2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 67.87%EV -8.84%E -6.96%K -32.73%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 13.79%EV -30.07%E -4.81%K -5.73%G +0.000%	4.70I 21.28%NM 18.34%EV -19.96%E -4.25%K -5.39%G +0.000%	16.0%	2026-09-12 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 68.01%EV -10.27%E -8.22%K -41.09%G +0.000%	6.60I 15.15%NM 12.88%EV -26.16%E -3.96%K -4.67%G +0.000%	4.45I 22.47%NM 19.10%EV -24.22%E -5.44%K -7.02%G +0.000%	17.6%	2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 67.73%EV -10.27%E -8.22%K -41.09%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.03%EV -27.28%E -4.20%K -4.96%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 19.24%EV -25.07%E -5.70%K -7.37%G +0.000%	18.1%	2026-09-12 14:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.