Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen

2026-10-27 19:45 UTC — DFB-Pokal

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

69%

13%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Borussia Dortmund (Local)

Prediction 68.87%1.45fair odd

EV -6.34%

Edge -4.66%

Kelly -17.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.06%68.70%68.87%69.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.321.331.3680.00%75.76%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Werder Bremen (Visit)

Prediction 13.10%7.64fair odd

EV -1.77%

Edge -0.236%

Kelly -0.273%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.37%13.06%13.10%14.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.806.746.887.5017.24%14.84%14.55%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.03%5.55fair odd

EV -5.33%

Edge -1.02%

Kelly -1.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.61%18.24%18.03%19.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.754.954.885.2521.05%20.22%20.51%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Borussia Dortmund (Local): 68.87%; Werder Bremen (Visit): 13.10%; Draw: 18.03%. For Werder Bremen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.64. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 7.50, with an expected value of -1.77%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Draw	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.13%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV -5.05%E -0.696%K -0.808%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -5.33%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-10-15 13:33
888sport🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.32%E -1.19%K -1.39%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.44%E -2.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-10 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.32%E -1.19%K -1.39%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.44%E -2.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-10 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.68%EV -6.34%E -4.66%K -17.60%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -8.32%E -1.19%K -1.39%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -13.44%E -2.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-10-10 14:01
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.78%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -1.77%E -0.236%K -0.273%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.85%EV -6.23%E -1.20%K -1.48%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-10-10 13:59
LeoVegas🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 68.83%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 13.56%EV -11.60%E -1.72%K -2.02%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.61%EV -6.23%E -1.20%K -1.48%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-10-12 14:24
picklebet_au🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -8.40%E -6.32%K -25.46%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -8.32%E -1.19%K -1.39%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -9.84%E -1.97%K -2.46%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-10-14 07:35
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 68.20%EV -9.78%E -7.47%K -31.55%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 13.75%EV -14.87%E -2.29%K -2.70%G +0.000%	4.95I 20.20%NM 18.05%EV -10.74%E -2.17%K -2.72%G +0.000%	11.9%	2026-10-12 19:49
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 67.72%EV -10.47%E -8.05%K -34.89%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 14.67%EV -21.42%E -3.57%K -4.28%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 17.61%EV -9.84%E -1.97%K -2.46%G +0.000%	13.6%	2026-10-12 14:24
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 67.06%EV -11.16%E -8.65%K -38.47%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 14.92%EV -24.04%E -4.14%K -5.01%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 18.02%EV -13.44%E -2.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%	15.6%	2026-10-12 14:24
NetBet (FR)🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 69.01%EV -13.22%E -10.49%K -50.86%G +0.000%	6.75I 14.81%NM 12.88%EV -11.60%E -1.72%K -2.02%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 18.11%EV -13.44%E -2.80%K -3.54%G +0.000%	15.0%	2026-10-15 05:55
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 68.42%EV -13.91%E -11.13%K -55.65%G +0.000%	6.30I 15.87%NM 13.58%EV -17.49%E -2.78%K -3.30%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 18.01%EV -14.35%E -3.02%K -3.83%G +0.000%	16.9%	2026-10-12 19:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.