Language:English
Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bayern Munich (Local)
Prediction 68.52%1.46fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.43
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.29%68.49%68.18%71.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.351.351.4376.92%73.86%74.07%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
VfB Stuttgart (Visit)
Prediction 15.03%6.65fair odd
EV +12.71%
Edge +1.69%
Kelly +1.96%
Growth +0.249%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.85%14.97%15.34%16.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.476.507.5017.39%15.46%15.38%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.45%6.08fair odd
EV +0.356%
Edge +0.058%
Kelly +0.070%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 6.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.79%16.55%16.48%18.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.695.756.1020.00%17.59%17.39%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayern Munich (Local): 68.52%; VfB Stuttgart (Visit): 15.03%; Draw: 16.45%. For VfB Stuttgart (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.65. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.71%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.36%EV -7.50%E -5.55%K -21.42%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.85%EV +12.71%E +1.69%K +1.96%G +0.249% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.79%EV +0.356%E +0.058%K +0.070%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.77%EV -4.07%E -2.91%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.95%EV +5.20%E +0.742%K +0.866%G +0.045% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.28%EV -1.29%E -0.215%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 70.07%EV -5.44%E -3.94%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.81%EV +5.20%E +0.742%K +0.866%G +0.045% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.12%EV -1.29%E -0.215%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-23 17:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.53%EV -7.50%E -5.55%K -21.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.60%EV +5.20%E +0.742%K +0.866%G +0.045% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV -1.29%E -0.215%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.34%EV -7.50%E -5.55%K -21.42%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.57%EV +5.20%E +0.742%K +0.866%G +0.045% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.09%EV -2.93%E -0.497%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-23 17:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.20%EV -8.18%E -6.11%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV +5.20%E +0.742%K +0.866%G +0.045% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.40%E -0.940%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-23 17:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.95%EV -8.18%E -6.11%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV +1.44%E +0.213%K +0.250%G +0.004% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -4.58%E -0.790%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.95%EV -8.18%E -6.11%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV +1.44%E +0.213%K +0.250%G +0.004% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -4.58%E -0.790%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.95%EV -8.18%E -6.11%K -24.07%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV +1.44%E +0.213%K +0.250%G +0.004% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -4.58%E -0.790%K -0.954%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.01%EV -8.87%E -6.67%K -26.87%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV +1.44%E +0.213%K +0.250%G +0.004% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -5.40%E -0.940%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-23 16:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.33%EV -5.44%E -3.94%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.72%EV -2.32%E -0.357%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.95%EV -1.29%E -0.215%K -0.258%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.86%EV -5.44%E -3.94%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.62%EV -2.32%E -0.357%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.53%EV -5.40%E -0.940%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-23 17:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.83%EV -10.92%E -8.40%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -2.32%E -0.357%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -7.87%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.83%EV -10.92%E -8.40%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -2.32%E -0.357%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -7.87%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.83%EV -10.92%E -8.40%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -2.32%E -0.357%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -7.87%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.83%EV -10.92%E -8.40%K -36.41%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.97%EV -2.32%E -0.357%K -0.421%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.21%EV -7.87%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.90%EV -6.13%E -4.47%K -16.56%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.10%EV -6.07%E -0.972%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.00%EV -2.93%E -0.497%K -0.599%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-23 17:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.71%EV -4.07%E -2.91%K -10.18%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.80%EV -9.83%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.49%EV -5.40%E -0.940%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-23 17:27 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.73%EV -5.44%E -3.94%K -14.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -9.83%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.69%EV -7.87%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-23 17:29 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.85%EV -6.81%E -5.01%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -9.83%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -9.52%E -1.73%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-23 07:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.21%EV -7.50%E -5.55%K -21.42%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.35%EV -9.83%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -7.87%E -1.41%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-23 17:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.78%EV -2.02%E -1.41%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV -13.59%E -2.36%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.61%EV -5.40%E -0.940%K -1.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-23 14:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.29%EV -6.81%E -5.01%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.68%EV -13.59%E -2.36%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -17.74%E -3.55%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.29%EV -6.81%E -5.01%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.68%EV -13.59%E -2.36%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -17.74%E -3.55%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.29%EV -6.81%E -5.01%K -18.92%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.68%EV -13.59%E -2.36%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -17.74%E -3.55%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-23 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.